Kyle Campbell of Greenhaven Road Capital presented his investment thesis on Louisiana-Pacific (US: NPX) at Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2025.

Thesis summary:

Louisiana-Pacific presents a compelling investment opportunity as it transitions from a commodity-driven manufacturer to a high-margin, value-added building materials leader and is uniquely positioned to capitalize on secular housing tailwinds and operational transformation. The company’s strategic shift — converting commodity OSB mills to premium siding production and expanding its portfolio of value-added OSB products — has already driven value-add OSB from 32% to 52% of total volume over the past decade, with further growth expected.

LPX’s siding segment, anchored by the LP SmartSide and ExpertFinish brands, is a margin expansion story and is set to play out after recent capacity expansions, with research indicating segment EBITDA margins should reach or exceed 35%. The OSB business, historically cyclical, is becoming more resilient and profitable as value-added products take share, reducing exposure to commodity price swings.

LPX’s disciplined capital allocation — prioritizing high-ROI organic investments, aggressive share repurchases, and dividend growth — demonstrates strong shareholder alignment. With robust competitive moats in supply chain exclusivity, product installation efficiency, and technical sales expertise, LPX is well-insulated from new entrants. The macro backdrop of persistent U.S. housing underbuilding acts as a powerful demand catalyst, likely to overpower short-term interest rate concerns.

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About the instructor:

Kyle Campbell is a Senior Analyst at Greenhaven Road Capital with a strong background in finance, accounting, and data analysis. Prior to joining Greenhaven Road in 2021, he was the CFO of a single-family office, where he led a comprehensive overhaul of financial reporting systems and made capital allocation decisions across both public and private investments. Before entering the finance world, Kyle spent 14 years in the US Air Force, serving in various intelligence roles that supported special operations around the globe. He holds an MBA from Columbia Business School and is a graduate of their prestigious Value Investing Program.

Andrew Macken of Montaka Global Investments presented his investment thesis on Floor & Decor Holdings (NYSE: FND) at Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2025.

Thesis summary:

Floor & Decor is a specialized US retailer of hard surface flooring products, offering approximately 4,400 SKUs per store across 254 large-format locations. The company was founded in 2000 and operates a differentiated business model characterized by extensive in-stock inventory, low prices, and high service levels. Led by CEO Tom Taylor, a seasoned executive formerly of Home Depot, Floor & Decor leverages a highly efficient retail model that emphasizes cost efficiency, simplicity, high inventory turnover, and significant scale advantages.

The US housing market is currently in a cyclical trough, marked by historically low home sales and significant pent-up demand, suggesting robust future growth in home improvement expenditure. Given the median age of US homes is now around 44 years, demand for renovation and maintenance remains structurally high. This scenario positions Floor & Decor favorably within the substantial \$40 billion annual US hard surface flooring market, which itself is gaining structural share from carpet flooring.

Floor & Decor employs a potent economic flywheel that strengthens its market position and economic moats over time. The company’s specialization in flooring enables scale economies, leading to advantageous procurement costs and efficient operations. These benefits translate into lower prices and improved customer experience, which in turn drive market share gains and reinforce the competitive advantage. This cycle has significantly grown Floor & Decor’s market share over recent years and is expected to sustain continued market leadership and profitable expansion.

Despite the company’s recent robust expansion, Floor & Decor’s current earnings appear depressed relative to their normalized potential, largely due to a younger store base and cyclically low US housing market activity. As the housing market rebounds and newer stores mature into profitability, a meaningful margin expansion is anticipated. The company recently traded at an enterprise value of approximately $10 billion, presenting a compelling opportunity given the substantial earnings growth trajectory implied by management’s store rollout plan and the industry’s long-term tailwinds. Floor & Decor represents a high-quality, advantaged business poised for sustained earnings growth and market leadership in the years ahead.

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Andrew Macken is the Co-Founder and CIO of Montaka Global Investments, a global equity manager based in Sydney and New York. Prior to establishing Montaka, Andrew worked as a senior member of Jim Chanos’ research team at Kynikos Associates, a global equity long/short fund based in New York. Andrew holds a Master of Business Administration (Dean’s List) from the Columbia Business School in New York. Andrew also graduated with High Distinction with a Master of Commerce; and First Class Honours with a Bachelor of Engineering from the University of New South Wales in Sydney.

Rodrigo Lopez Buenrostro of KUE Capital presented his investment thesis on ASML (Netherlands: ASML, NYSE: ASML) at Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2025.

Thesis summary:

ASML, the dominant supplier in the semiconductor lithography equipment industry, recently traded at €680 per share, reflecting a market capitalization of approximately €270 billion and an enterprise value of €260 billion. ASML has a monopoly on EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) lithography machines, a critical technology required for manufacturing advanced semiconductor chips. The company’s market position is reinforced by high entry barriers and proprietary technologies, effectively insulating it from competitive threats.

The core investment thesis revolves around the structural growth of global semiconductor demand, propelled by advancements in computing, data centers, AI technologies, and an expanding global internet infrastructure. ASML’s lithography machines are central to enabling ongoing progress in chip miniaturization, directly underpinning Moore’s Law. The company’s unique technological leadership, particularly in EUV and DUV machines, positions it strategically to capture disproportionate economic benefits as the industry continues its upward trajectory.

ASML’s strong competitive moat is amplified through its installed base management, leveraging a high-margin service and upgrade business driven by continuous innovation and customer lock-in. Additionally, ASML strategically reinvests about 100% of its net income into its business, maintaining a robust R\&D pipeline aimed at further technological advances, such as the development of Hyper-NA machines, which solidify its competitive edge and growth trajectory.

Despite its robust competitive positioning and substantial reinvestment in growth initiatives, ASML faces risks including the potential slowing of Moore’s Law, the concentrated customer base for high-NA technology, possible technological disruptions, and geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains and trade dynamics. However, the company’s prudent risk management and strategic patience in the face of uncertainties provide a strong buffer. With high returns on new investments (approximately 20% RONE) and a compelling valuation, ASML represents a high-quality investment, though investors may prefer to wait for a more favorable entry price closer to €600 per share.

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Rodrigo Lopez Buenrostro is a Partner at Kue Capital where he invests to preserve capital over time. He currently leads the asset management division within the firm and divides his time between equity research and manager selection with a global mandate. Previously, Rodrigo worked as a summer equity analyst at SW Investments, a value-focused hedge fund in Chicago. He began his professional career as an Investment Banker at BBVA. Rodrigo is an MBA graduate from Chicago Booth Class of 2015 where he earned a concentration in Analytic Finance and was actively involved in the Investment Management community. He studied Business and Accounting at ITAM for undergraduate where he wrote his graduating thesis on hedge funds and started to invest personally. Rodrigo has always had an interest in finding the real value of assets, reading, and volunteering to teach basic concepts related to investing.