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Uzbekistan: Highly Illiquid Stock Market, with Long-Term Potential

April 13, 2019 in Asia, Asian Investing Summit 2019, Audio, Equities, Ideas

Michael McGaughy of Research Alpha discussed the outlook for Uzbekistan and presented his investment thesis on Qizulqum Cement (Uzbekistan: QZSM) at Asian Investing Summit 2019.

Thesis summary:

Qizulqum Cement is the largest cement plant in Central Asia. It installed capacity of 3.4 million tons per annum, which represents 45% of Uzbekistan’s total. The company operates with 3,500 workers on 1.2 million hectares of land (9 kilometers southwest of Navoiy). The company is anticipating an increase in production capacity by 45% by 2021. Qizulgum is an 86.9% government owed via Agency for State Assets Management.

This is the third most liquid stock in Uzbekistan, as of February 2019. With a market cap of UZS 819 billion, it has an attractive ROE/ROA of 24% and 21.8%, respectively (March 2019). Net cash is 46% of market cap. The enterprise value is UZS 503 billion, with a PE ratio of 2.1x, PB 0.6x, and EV/EBITDA of .8x. The biggest investment risk is the recent change in government SOE ownership to Agency for State Asset Management, as the policies are unknown.

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About the instructor:

Michael R. McGaughy is Head of Research and a Portfolio Manager at Research Alpha.

An award-winning analyst with a distinctive research methodology, Mr. McGaughy has extensive investment experience spanning buy- and sell-side research; and equity, fund-of-hedge-funds, and private equity fund management. He has analyzed, and invested in companies and managers in over 20 countries around the world.

He has written and published numerous reports/books on business groups including Inside China’s Corporations, Inside Corporate ASEAN, Indonesia’s State-Owned Enterprises, Compass Malaysia – A Navigational Guide to Malaysian Business Groups, and four versions of A Guide to Indonesian Business Groups (1990, 1992, 1997 and 2007).

Mr. McGaughy graduated from University of Vermont with a BSc in Economics and completed concentrations in Mathematics and Chinese. He is also a holder of the Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA) designation. He has been approved by the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong as a Responsible Officer for Type 4 (Advising on Securities) and Type 9 (Asset Management) regulated activities.

Based in Hong Kong Mr. McGaughy first came to Asia as an exchange student in 1985 and has been involved with emerging and frontier markets since 1989. Before joining Fusion, he worked in Beijing, Hong Kong and Singapore with different companies including HSBC, the old Crosby Group and StoneWater Capital.

Mr. McGaughy’s fund, Research Alpha, looks globally for companies that are run and owned by quality people, have structures that align minority and majority interests and trade below fair value. He writes a personal blog on investing and other topics at http://michaelmcgaughy.blogspot.hk.

Value-oriented Investing in Vietnam’s Growth

April 13, 2019 in Asia, Asian Investing Summit 2019, Audio, Equities, Ideas

Andreas Vogelsanger of Asia Frontier Capital (Vietnam) discussed his firm’s approach to investing in Vietnam at Asian Investing Summit 2019.

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About the instructor:

Andreas Vogelsanger, CEO, has over 25 years of wide-ranging experience with leading institutions in the finance industry. Prior to launching the AFC Vietnam Fund Andreas was a Founding Partner and Chairman of a small corporate finance boutique in Singapore and he worked for top-level investment banks, hedge funds and private banks in Zurich, Geneva, London, Hong Kong and Singapore. He is passionate in finding the best value solutions for clients in tailoring an optimal investment proposition. Andreas was awarded an AMP diploma from Wharton Business School, University of Pennsylvania and he also holds CEFA (Certified European Financial Analyst and Portfolio Manager) and FRM (Financial Risk Manager) diplomas.

Indusind Bank, Ujjivan Financial: Benefiting from Microfinance Growth

April 13, 2019 in Asia, Asian Investing Summit 2019, Audio, Equities, Financials, Ideas, Large Cap, Small Cap

Ankit Agarwal of Centrum Capital presented his in-depth investment thesis on Indusind Bank (India: INDUSINDBK) and Ujjivan Financial Services (India: UJJIVAN) at Asian Investing Summit 2019.

Thesis summaries:

Microfinance provides an opportunity to tap the bottom of the pyramid space in India, with the penetration of formal credit in India at 22%. With the emergence of technology and regulatory support from the government, the space is poised to grow by both penetration increase and average ticket sizes going up. The microfinance industry is expected to grow at a CAGR of 23%+ during the period FY19-22E, through banks, small finance banks (SFB), non-banking financial company- Microfinance Institutions (NBFC-MFI).

Indusind Bank is one of the diversified, large players in the banking space, with a USD 25 billion loan book and a high CASA ratio of approximately 44%. From FY09 to FY17 the bank has exceeded all the targets that they have set for themselves across planning cycles. The bank has set a goal for a loan growth of 25-30% CAGR, and Return on Risk Weighted Assets (RoRWA) of higher than 2.4%, during FY18-20E.

The bank acquired Bharat Financial Inclusion, one of the largest NBFC-MFI in the country, with a USD 2.2 billion loan book. Bharat was one of the lowest interest lenders in the world, offering less than a 20% lending rate. The RoA of Bharat Financial was 4%. The RoA for the franchise would go up, as they would have access to low-cost funding from Indusind Bank, in addition to setting aside lower capital once it became a bank. The franchise was valued using the residual income methodology. Ankit assumes a 13.0% cost of equity and a terminal growth rate of 5% to arrive at a fair value of INR 2150 for Indusind, implying a 22% upside from current levels.

Ujjivan Financial Services participates in the microfinance space, with a gross loan book of USD 1.3 billion. Ujjivan has a presence in 24 states, in India. This SFB is expected to grow its loan book by 30-35% CAGR.

Ujjivan has seen a revival in its microfinance disbursements post the demonetization crisis. GNPA that was 6% in Q1FY18 has come down to 1.4%. Moreover, the transition from MFI to SFB has led to upfronting of costs leading to opex to asset ratio rising to as high as 10.6% which would come down to around 6.1% in FY21E and RoA improving from 0.1% to 1.5%.

The company was valued using the residual income (cost of equity of 13.5% and terminal growth rate of 5%) to arrive at a fair value of approximately INR 400 implying an adjusted book value multiple of 2.1x. The fair value implies an upside of 24% from current levels.

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About the instructor:

Ankit Agarwal has a strong academic pedigree with MBA from IIM Bangalore and Btech in computer science from NIT Trichy. He currently works as a Fund Manager for a reputed listed financial services firm. He brings in experience in the investment management industry encompassing fund management, research, covering the equity asset class. Further, he has had diverse set of experiences in the financial services industry encompassing Wealth Management firms (Centrum, Barclays Wealth), hedge fund (D. E. Shaw & Co.), a french investment bank (BNP Paribas) operating in Hong Kong and Wall Street firm (Lehman Brothers) in London. He is very passionate about working in the industry and brings in expertise primarily in equities and derivatives. He often comes on various print and television media to give views on the markets.

Muthoot Finance: India’s Largest Gold Finance Company

April 13, 2019 in Asia, Asian Investing Summit 2019, Audio, Equities, Financials, Ideas, Mid Cap

Amit Kumar of Unifi Capital presented his in-depth investment thesis on Muthoot Finance (India: MUTHOOTFIN) at Asian Investing Summit 2019.

Thesis summary:

Muthoot is the largest gold finance company of India with gross loan assets of USD 5.2 billion and valued at a market cap of USD 3.5 billion as of March 2019. Having received an NBFC license in 2001, this fast growing business has generated a 16.7% CAGR stock returns since its listing in 2011. During the same period, it has delivered an earnings CAGR of 18.5%. Given India’s affinity towards gold, the country has accumulated 24000 tonnes of gold, with 85% of it lying idle with households. Currently, Muthoot holds 166 tonnes of gold, as security against loans to consumers.

More than 60% of the rural consumers of India have credit needs, but don’t have the credentials required by the bank to give them loan. As a result, the consumers resort to seeking financing from unorganised market money lenders. This results in expensive loans at 30-36% p.a., instead of using the gold lying idle with the family. Muthoot is targeting such consumers to make them understand the potential of the gold they own, and to monetise it as short term loans at comparatively cheaper rates. In this way, it is catering to the credit needs of rural and semi-urban India in a profitable way.

The gold finance business in India has a very long possible runway for growth due to underpenetrated consumer credit business, large idle gold with consumers and significant presence of unorganised moneylenders. Given this backdrop, Muthoot offers a long term investment opportunity.

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About the instructor:

Amit Kumar is Assistant Vice President of Unifi Capital

Sectoral Investment Approach and the Indian Pharma Sector

April 13, 2019 in Asia, Asian Investing Summit 2019, Audio, Equities, Ideas

George Joseph of ITI Asset Management discussed his investment approach and the Indian pharma sector at Asian Investing Summit 2019.

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About the instructor:

George Heber Joseph is the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of ITI Asset Management Ltd since November 2018. He joined us from ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Ltd, Mumbai, where he has spent more than a decade in managing some of the large flagship fund strategies in equity and hybrid categories. All funds (Multicap, ELSS- Long Term Equity Fund, Child care) and discretionary portfolios (Wellness, Exports, Flexicap, Largecap, PIPE/Smallcap) managed by him during his entire stint were excellent performers in their respective categories. He has done extensive bottom up research of various sectors, has overseen fund manager activities, managed various research analysts and was also heading the discretionary portfolio management services division during his tenure. There, he was designated as Senior Fund Manager (Vice president Grade) based in Mumbai, India and was one of the Key Management Personnel in the investment management team. George began his career as an Industrial Trainee at EID Parry India Ltd, Chennai in the year 1999 and later on started off his financial services stint in the year 2003 as a Senior Officer in Corporate Treasury & Finance department of Aditya Birla Group company – Tanfac Industries Ltd and then went on to serve in several other positions in companies like Cholamandalam Investments & Finance Company Ltd, MetLife India, Wipro Ltd and DSP Merrill Lynch Ltd where he has handled equity research, fund management, management consulting and corporate treasury responsibilities. For periods of employment he has stayed in Mumbai, Bangalore, Chennai, Frankfurt and New York. George holds dual Bachelor’s degree in English Language & Literature and Commerce. He is a qualified Chartered Accountant from Institute of Chartered Accountants of India, New Delhi and a Cost and Management Accountant from Institute of Cost Accountants of India, Kolkata.

KDDL: Leading Provider of Watch Components to Swiss Brands

April 13, 2019 in Asia, Asian Investing Summit 2019, Audio, Consumer Discretionary, Equities, Ideas, Micro Cap

Lalaram Singh of Vibrant Securities presented his in-depth investment thesis on KDDL Limited (India: KDDL) at Asian Investing Summit 2019.

Thesis summary:

KDDL is a tight niche export oriented precision engineering business. KDDL supplies watch components (hands and dials) to swiss brands. The company has a reported gross margin of 75%+. The company is part of a global exclusive club of five non-captive manufacturers of swiss watch hands. The company has also leveraged its manufacturing relationship with the swiss brands to venture into luxury watch retail. Today, KDDL is the top player, and the only pan India retailer of luxury watches. KDDL has retail sales of USD 75 million, with huge runway of future growth as per capital income of India rises leading to boom in discretionary expenditure. The catch is that in the wake of sharp market correction over the last one year and sharp depreciation of INR against USD – the market cap of this company has fallen from USD 100+ million (April 2018) to approximately USD 75 million today. The company can command a market cap of USD 300+ million in the next four to five years. It’s a very interesting business run by an “outsider” CEO.

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About the instructor:

Lalaram Singh is the CIO at Vibrant Securities, managing the proprietary book based on long only, value investing principles. Vibrant Securities is a 20+ year old stock broking company based out of Mumbai. At Vibrant, Lalaram is responsible for building the research team from scratch and formulating the investment strategy, idea generation and portfolio management process. Previously, Lalaram was the co-founder of AnalyseWise Investment Advisors, an Independent Equity Research company catering to retail, institutions and brokers. Lalaram was a part of AnalyseWise from Aug-14 to July-16. Prior to co-founding AnalyseWise , Lalaram was a part of 12 member team in Bain Capital at their Mumbai Office where he evaluated investment opportunities across industries ranging from Healthcare, IT, Industrials, & Consumer Goods. Lalaram began his career at J.P. Morgan in July-2012 upon completion of his Bachelors in Mechanical Engineering from Mumbai University. At J.P. Morgan, Lalaram supported the Asia M&A team working on companies across banking, insurance, securities and asset management in India, China and South East Asia.

KRBL: Formidable Basmati Rice Franchise with Growth Runway

April 13, 2019 in Asia, Asian Investing Summit 2019, Audio, Consumer Staples, Equities, Ideas, Small Cap

Amey Kulkarni of Candor Investing Fund presented his in-depth investment thesis on KRBL Ltd (India: KRBL) at Asian Investing Summit 2019.

Thesis summary:

KRBL, with a market cap of approximately USD 1.2 billion, is a retailer of the long-grain aromatic rice. Basmati rice is the aspirational variety of rice for people who prefer the non-sticky rice over the sticky rice in the rice-eating world (i.e., the Indian subcontinent, the Gulf countries, and most of Africa). KRBL supplies to 82+ countries, and its brands rank among the top three in India, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, and several African countries.

KRBL has roots dating back 130+ years and not only understands the Basmati rice business, but has also been a pioneer in R&D and the adoption of the latest technological trends in the production, distribution, and marketing of Basmati rice.

Basmati production is only approximately 2% overall rice production. With per-capita GDP around USD 2,000 in India and growing rapidly, Basmati rice consumption is expected to grow exponentially from a low base. KRBL has a long runway of growth ahead.

The company has demonstrated strong business performance over several decades and is the preferred Basmati rice brand globally. This formidable franchise is available at less than 10x operating earnings.

Listen to this session:

slide presentation audio recording

About the instructor:

Amey Kulkarni invests in the Indian Public Markets in companies deriving their competitive advantage from unique and / or innovative business models. This means bottom-up stock picking of businesses that don’t require external capital, have the ability to grow for several years in the future and are run by honest and hungry management. Amey partners with select individuals/trusts/family offices to manage their equity investments. Amey believes that patient capital is critical to success in the stock markets.

Manappuram Finance: India’s Second-Largest Gold Finance Company

April 13, 2019 in Asia, Asian Investing Summit 2019, Audio, Equities, Financials, Ideas, Small Cap

Viraj Mehta of Equirus Long Horizon Fund presented his in-depth investment thesis on Manappuram Finance Limited (India: MANAPPURAM) at Asian Investing Summit 2019.

Thesis summary:

Manappuram Finance is India’s second largest gold loans NBFC. The company has a consolidated AUM of INR 178 billion (December 2018) with 30% coming from microfinance, commercial vehicles, and mortgage & housing finance. The tenure of loans has come down significantly, shielding Manappuram from losses arising due to sever gold price correction. Additionally, the company is focused on expanding the business portfolio beyond gold loans. Approximately 70% of the business focuses on gold loans, followed by 18% in microfinance, 5.5% in housing finance, and the remainder in miscellaneous.

Outlook for company: improvement in growth in core gold loan business, operating leverage to kick in with one-time expenses behind, provisioning to reduce substantially in coming years aid profitability, and valuation gap with other NBFCs can reduce. The risks to consider: RBI has tightened regulations in the past, big adverse movement in gold prices or interest rates, or loss of customer trust from theft in branches. The ROA/ROE of 5.2%/23% commensurate with the asset quality. The company has a P/B of 2.3x compared to a competitor’s P/B of 2.6x.

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About the instructor:

Viraj Mehta serves as Fund Manager of the Equirus Long Horizon Fund, a long-only fund. Viraj has over eight years of experience in the field of investing. He was selected by the Wall Street Journal as part of “Asia’s Master Stock Picker” series for India. He was previously a member of the fund management team at Franklin Templeton Investments, managing $6 billion in assets. Viraj was the lead analyst for the small companies fund at Franklin Templeton.

Greaves Cotton: Diesel Engine Maker with New Management

April 13, 2019 in Asia, Asian Investing Summit 2019, Audio, Consumer Discretionary, Equities, Ideas, Small Cap

V.P. Rajesh and Anish Jobalia of Banyan Capital Advisors presented their in-depth investment thesis on Greaves Cotton (India: GREAVESCOT) (GC) at Asian Investing Summit 2019.

Thesis summary:

Greaves Cotton (GC), a 158-year-old industrial company, has been a dominant player in the niche diesel three-wheeler engines market and enjoyed a quasi-monopoly for a long time. Over the last few years, GC’s market position has been threatened by the shift in the diesel three-wheeler market towards alternate fuels like Petrol, CNG, and LPG. In response to these headwinds, GC has been working with a US-based technology partner on developing a low-cost ownership CNG engine model and enabling OEM customers to capture market share from the incumbent.

The new management team, led by Mr. Basavanhalli, is diversifying the risk by increasing its focus on the existing Aftermarket and Other (Gensets and Agri-Equipments) segments and entering into new high-growth segments like electric two-wheelers. GC will likely become a fuel-agnostic mobility solutions provider and a diversified player, without compromising margins and the capital intensity of the business model. GC shares recently traded at trailing multiples of 11x EV/EBITDA and 18x P/E, with a 4% dividend yield. GC meets most of the criteria of the enterprising investor checklist highlighted in Ben Graham’s The Intelligent Investor.

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About the instructors:

V.P. Rajesh has been in the capital markets since 1991, first as an IT consultant (at Citicorp Overseas Software) and then as an Investment Banker for over 10 years specializing in mergers and acquisitions. During his banking career with J.P. Morgan Chase, Deutsche Bank, Piper Jaffray and Thomas Weisel Partners in New York and San Francisco, he focused on technology, media, telecom and healthcare sectors and completed transactions worth over $27 billion. V.P. relocated to India in July 2007 and started re-investing in the Indian stock market from March 2008 onward. He started Banyan Capital Advisors in New Delhi in November 2011 to manage outside capital using investment principles espoused by likes of Graham, Buffett, Munger, Klarman and Lynch. V.P. is an MBA from the University of Michigan’s Ross Business School with a distinction and has a B.E. (Hons.) degree from BITS, Pilani, India. He is also a Chartered Financial Analyst(CFA) from The CFA Institute, US.

Anish Jobalia has close to seven years of buy-side research experience in the portfolio management industry. In the past, Anish has worked at Jeetay Investments Pvt Ltd and is currently associated as a Senior Research Analyst at Banyan Capital Advisors LLP. He has developed an integrated framework for analyzing companies with a singular focus on dissecting the business model and financials of the company. Anish regularly interacts with CXO level management of listed companies to assess investment opportunities and keeps updated with the progress of the companies. He believes in challenging his own thesis by consistently looking for anecdotal evidence through primary research. His approach towards portfolio management is in making concentrated bets on his best investment long-only ideas, with a minimum horizon of 3-5 years.

Tang Palace, Saregama: Micro-Cap Opportunities in Hong Kong, India

April 12, 2019 in Asia, Asian Investing Summit 2019, Asian Investing Summit 2019 Featured, Audio, Equities, Ideas, Micro Cap, Transcripts

Sid Choraria, an Asian Equities Portfolio Manager, presented his investment theses on Tang Palace (Hong Kong: 1181) and Saregama (India: SAREGAMA) at Asian Investing Summit 2019. Amiral analysts John Xu and Nat Banyatpiyaphod joined Sid for the presentation.

Thesis summaries:

Tang Palace is an underfollowed Hong Kong stock (USD 165 million market cap), available at a 20% free cash flow yield, 5x PE ex cash, with a net cash balance sheet (40% of market cap), and dividend yield of 8-10%. The stock is attractive considering the business has a 25+ year history and is growing. The company is a niche restaurant operator.

The company has had organic revenue growth of 10%+ practically every year, over the last 11 years, and free cash flow (FCF) positive over the last 10 years. The operating income grew 9 out of 11 years and high returns on invested capital (50%+) / 1.5 – 2 year pay back periods for most stores. Importantly, the business has a runway for growth to deploy invested capital in its core Tang Palace and Social Place brands at high rates of returns. The resiliency of the revenue growth is due to its business model advantages – i) long-standing relationships with hotel and malls in China, ii) multi-brand strategy (6 brands) central to creating diversity in revenue stream + diversity in customer base (high, mid end, online, etc), iii) online takeaway growing 50-100%+ due to marketing on e-commerce channels like Ele.me, Meituan Dianping, and Waimai, iv) sticky loyal customers with great online reviews and v. niche revenue opportunities (banquets, wedding, takeaway gift box, baby showers, graduation dinner, birthday party, etc).

From a valuation perspective, the company’s intrinsic value should be at least 50% higher from current levels and if an investor is wrong, the margin of safety is a 8-10% dividend with the added presence of private equity investors, Orchid Asia in the share register.

Saregama is a 117 year-old Indian music company (USD 150 million market cap) that is undergoing a business transformation the last few years and has been relatively underfollowed by investors. The company owns the 2nd largest catalogue of Indian music with 120,000 songs, including 80-90% of the most popular songs recorded before the 1990s. The business today is a growth story in the Indian music industry through hit-consumer product Carvaan and music licensing (each approximately 40% of FY 18 revenue). Carvaan is a music player with 5,000 of Saregama’s best songs, designed for 35+ year old Indians. Since launch less than 2 years ago, Carvaan has remarkably sold over 1 million units and could sell another 3 million over the next few years. Music licensing is Saregama’s core business of IP monetization and is growing revenue 15-20% per year driven by the secular growth of music streaming in India and the operating margins are high.

Barriers to entry are high because Saregama’s IP asset that underpins these two businesses cannot be replicated. Both Carvaan and Music Licensing are relatively asset-light with 40%+ ROIC with growth prospects. Saregama has an impressive music industry executive, Vikram Mehra, who has revived the company’s fortunes. As a result, Sid Choraria believes each of these 2 business segments could alone be independently worth at least USD 150-200 million each (more than today’s market cap) based on reasonable multiples for businesses with similar returns on capital and growth rates.

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About the instructor:

Sid Choraria is an Asian Equities Portfolio Manager focused on identifying exceptional businesses, cultures and CEOs/management teams to invest like a business owner, preferably for 10 years or longer.

The typical company Sid prefers is a business that can endure the risk of impermanence over decades. His research indicates that over 98% of investable companies fail the test. The culture must be unquestionably superior. Such companies are customer obsessed and have strong non-transactional relationships with constituents. Sid prefers early-stage pricing power that is not discovered. The universe is limited to exceptional Asian businesses and great global companies with significant revenue and cash flow from Asia very material to shareholder value.

In Aug 2013, Sid elicited a rare response from legendary Warren Buffett with a letter and thesis on an under-followed, 135-year-old Japanese company. The company, Kobayashi Pharmaceutical (4967 JP) founded in 1886 is as old as Coca Cola and Wrigley’s chewing gum but with poor coverage when Sid discovered it. He presented the idea on MOI in 2013. Since the letter, business value has quadrupled compounding roughly 26% outperforming the S&P, NASDAQ and respective Asian indices. The inversion lessons influenced Sid’s journey to focus on less followed companies, great cultures and businesses that can endure the test of time.

Sid enjoys mentoring young talent and giving back knowledge by speaking at the world’s top universities like Harvard, Princeton, Columbia Business School, NYU Stern, LBS, USC and Brown. From 2014-2016, he consistently won a few research awards for probing research on Asian companies judged by over 70 judges. His contributions have featured in Goldman Sachs Alumni Network, CNBC, Sydney Morning Herald, Alpha Ideas India, Value Spain, Intel and GIC.

Sid has worked in Asia for 15 years and grew up in the region. Previously, he has served in senior investment roles in Asia, at multi-billion long-only and long-short funds. He worked at Goldman Sachs technology investment banking in Asia. These experiences taught him the significant importance of teams, culture and incentives.

Sid received his MBA from New York University Stern School in 2011 and was recipient of the Harvey Beker Scholarship. During his MBA, Sid worked at Bandera Partners, a fund focused on small mid cap activism, run by Jeff Gramm, Author of “Dear Chairman”, Greg Bylinsky and Andy Shpiz.

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