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Tidewater: Post-Bankruptcy, Well-Capitalized Leader at Discount

January 11, 2019 in Best Ideas 2019, Best Ideas 2019 Featured, Energy, Ideas, North America, Small Cap, Transcripts

Amit Wadhwaney of Moerus Capital Management presented his in-depth investment thesis on Tidewater (US: TDW) at Best Ideas 2019.

Thesis Summary:

Tidewater is one of the largest provider of offshore supply vehicles (“OSV”) and marine support services to the offshore energy exploration, development and production industry. The company’s OSVs tow and anchor-handle mobile drilling rigs and equipment, transport supplies and personnel and provide support to pipe laying and other offshore construction activities. Revenues relates directly to offshore activity in the exploration and production of hydrocarbons, notably oil.

Following the collapse in oil prices in 2014 and the resurgence of lower-cost, unconventional sources of oil (notably shale), there was a significant drop-off in the higher-cost offshore exploration activity, with the resulting collapse in demand for OSVs and other support services plunging most companies in this industry into various degrees of distress.

Tidewater emerged from bankruptcy with much of the previous debt converted to equity (or warrants), resulting in a greatly improved balance sheet, with the assets marked down to the recent depressed valuations in the market.

At recent prices, Tidewater trades at a discount of at least 30-40% to a depressed book value that reflects write-downs of asset values on the order of 70+%. This situation is unlikely to persist in the long run as the company’s more financially leveraged competitors withdraw vessels from the market and/or consolidation among industry participants diminishes the number of viable competitors, improving the supply-demand balance and pricing dynamics in the market for Tidewater’s services.

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About the instructor:

Amit Wadhwaney is a Portfolio Manager and Co-Founding Partner at Moerus Capital Management LLC, and the founding manager of the Moerus Worldwide Value Fund. Mr. Wadhwaney has over 25 years of experience researching and analyzing investment opportunities in developed, emerging, and frontier markets worldwide, and has managed global investment portfolios since 1996. Prior to founding Moerus, Mr. Wadhwaney was a Portfolio Manager and Partner at Third Avenue Management LLC. Mr. Wadhwaney founded the international business at Third Avenue and was the founding manager of the Third Avenue Global Value Fund, LP, the Third Avenue Emerging Markets Fund, LP, and the Third Avenue International Value Fund, an open end mutual fund. Earlier in his career, Mr. Wadhwaney was first a securities analyst, and then Director of Research at M.J. Whitman LLC, a New York-based broker-dealer. Prior to joining M.J. Whitman, Mr. Wadhwaney was a paper and forest products analyst at Bunting Warburg, a Canadian brokerage firm. He began his career at Domtar, a Canadian forest products company. Mr. Wadhwaney holds an M.B.A. in Finance from The University of Chicago. He also holds a B.A. with honors and an M.A. in Economics from Concordia University; at Concordia, he was awarded the Sun Life Prize and the Concordia University Fellow in Economics, and he subsequently taught economics classes there. He also holds B.S. degrees in Chemical Engineering and Mathematics from the University of Minnesota.

AT&T: Stable, Slowly Growing Business with Healthy Dividend

January 11, 2019 in Audio, Best Ideas 2019, Best Ideas 2019 Featured, Equities, Ideas, Information Technology, Large Cap, North America

Bogumil Baranowski of Sicart Associates presented his in-depth investment thesis on AT&T (US: T) at Best Ideas 2019.

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About the instructor:

Bogumil Baranowski has a Master’s degree in Finance and Strategy from Institut d’Etudes Politiques de Paris (Sciences Po), and a Master’s in Finance and Banking from Warsaw School of Economics. He has over 13 years of investment experience. Before joining Sicart Associates, LLC, he worked at Tocqueville Asset Management L.P. as a portfolio manager and senior equity analyst. He is the author of Outsmarting the Crowd – A Value Investor’s Guide to Starting, Building and Keeping a Family Fortune (2015). He is a TEDx Speaker, an Executive Board member of one of the oldest and most advanced Toastmasters International clubs in New York City, and an Instructor at MOI Global (The Community of Intelligent Investors). His articles regularly appear on Seeking Alpha.

Chemours: High-Quality Chemicals Firm Trades Like Commodity Player

January 11, 2019 in Audio, Best Ideas 2019, Best Ideas 2019 Featured, Equities, Ideas, Materials, Mid Cap, North America

Chris McIntyre of McIntyre Partnerships presented his in-depth investment thesis on The Chemours Company (US: CC) at Best Ideas 2019.

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About the instructor:

Chris McIntyre is the founder of McIntyre Partnerships, a concentrated value fund located in New York City. He employees a selective-contrarian strategy focused on event driven, GARP, and distressed investments. Prior to founding McIntyre Partnerships, he was a Managing Director at MAK Capital, a value focused equity and credit fund, where he managed investments in consumer, telecom, and special situations. Prior to that, he was an analyst at several funds including Cobalt Capital and MDR Capital. Chris is a CFA charterholder. He is a University of Virginia graduate with degrees in Economics and Government.

Drive Shack: Growth Potential Ignored as Shares Below Net Cash

January 11, 2019 in Audio, Best Ideas 2019, Best Ideas 2019 Featured, Consumer Discretionary, Equities, Ideas, Micro Cap, North America

John Carraux of Punch & Associates Investment Management presented his in-depth investment thesis on Drive Shack (US: DS) at Best Ideas 2019.

Thesis summary:

Drive Shack is a unique golf entertainment business with significant growth potential that recently traded below the liquidation value of the company’s assets. Under the leadership of a proven management team that is aligned with shareholders, John believes that Drive Shack should be able to build a franchise of golf entertainment locations over the next 3-5 years that will create shareholder value. The share quotation does not reflect this growth potential as the recent market valuation is below the cash and securities on the company’s balance sheet.

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About the instructor:

John Carraux is intimately involved in all aspects of the research and investment process at Punch & Associates, and works closely with Howard, Paul, Rob, Bob and Steve to manage our investment strategies on a daily basis. John joined the firm shortly after its inception in 2002, and cut his investment teeth doing the basic work of a research analyst: sifting through financial statements, talking to management teams, and developing an eye for value. Today, as then, he still gets excited over the details of investing, and enjoys reading footnotes, listening to old conference calls, and stacking up well-worn Annual Reports in his office at home. John is a CFA Charterholder and is happy that his years of studying for it are behind him. He lives in Chaska, MN with his wife, Anne, and four children. John graduated Magna Cum Laude and with Delta Epsilon Sigma honors from the University of St. Thomas in St. Paul, MN, and enjoys reading, tennis, and skiing with his family. As a Wisconsin native, John always knew that “the Pack” would see their 4th NFL Championship well before “the Queens” saw their 5th Superbowl.

Siauliu Bankas: Lithuanian Banking Leader at Bargain Price

January 11, 2019 in Audio, Best Ideas 2019, Best Ideas 2019 Featured, Equities, Europe, Ideas

Steve Gorelik of Firebird Management presented his in-depth investment thesis on Siauliu Bankas (Lithuania: SAB1L) at Best Ideas 2019.

Thesis summary:

Siauliu Bankas is the largest locally owned bank in Lithuania. The country is one of the fastest-growing economies in EU, driven by a successful restructuring following the crisis of 2008-2009. Siauliu Bankas translates local ownership into a competitive advantage through better customer service and faster lending decisions as compared to foreign competitors. Since the consolidation of two smaller competitors in 2015, the bank’s loan book grew 28% through the end of 2017, compared to 18% growth for the Lithuanian banking sector.

The bank is highly profitable, generating sustainable ROE of 15+%, but recently traded at 8x P/E and 1x book value due to a perceived share overhang from a recently dissolved shareholder agreement. Upcoming catalysts include higher dividends from the newly approved dividend policy and potential M&A as the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, a 26% shareholder, looks to monetize its stake in the company. Even without a re-rating, an investment in Siauliu Bankas may deliver ~25% annually over the intermediate term due to the compounding of capital.

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slide presentation audio recording

About the instructor:

In addition to being Head of Research at Firebird Management, Steve Gorelik is the Fund Manager of Firebird U.S. Value Fund as well as portfolio manager of Firebird’s Eastern Europe and Russia Funds. He joined Firebird in 2005 from Columbia University Graduate School of Business while completing education from a highly selective Value Investing Program. Prior to business school, Steve was an operational strategy consultant at Deloitte working with companies in various industries including banking, healthcare, and retail. He holds a BS degree from Carnegie Mellon University as well as a CFA (chartered financial analyst) charter and a membership in Beta Gamma Sigma honor society. Steve serves on the boards of Teliani Valley (Georgia), Arco Vara (Estonia), and Pharmsynthez (Russia). He speaks Russian, English and his native Belarussian.

Axalta: BRK Investee and Performance Coatings Leader Has Strategic Value

January 11, 2019 in Audio, Best Ideas 2019, Equities, Ideas, Materials, Mid Cap, North America

Ben Claremon of Cove Street Capital presented his in-depth investment thesis on Axalta Coating Systems (US: AXTA) at Best Ideas 2019.

Thesis summary:

Axalta is a leading manufacturer and distributor of performance coatings, mainly serving automotive, commercial vehicle and industrial end markets. The company was once part of DuPont but was sold in 2013 to Carlyle Group, who then took the company public in late 2014.

After a few years of restructuring and consistent operational improvement, Axalta has become a high-margin, high-return, FCF-generating company whose stock has been under pressure due to a number of issues that Ben believes to be transitory in nature. Axalta’s end markets are most certainly impacted by short-term issues such as the cyclicality in auto manufacturing and downturns within emerging market economies. Over the long term, Axalta should be able to grow revenue and enhance margin as it benefits from material tailwinds.

Due to Axalta’s leading positions in the refinish and light vehicle end markets, the company has the opportunity to be an industry consolidator or to be acquired as the global coatings players continue to focus scale. Both Akzo Nobel and Nippon Paint expressed an interest in Axalta in late 2017. The recent decline in the stock price has made the valuation more attractive, and with Berkshire Hathaway as the largest shareholder, there is also a possibility that Berkshire makes a bid for the company.

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About the instructor:

Ben Claremon joined Cove Street in 2011 as a research analyst. He also serves as a Co-Portfolio Manager for our Classic Value | Small Cap Plus strategy. Previously he worked as an equity analyst on both the long and the short side for hedge funds Blue Ram Capital and Right Wall Capital in New York, and interned at West Coast Asset Management in Santa Barbara. Prior to that, he spent four years with a family commercial real estate finance and management business. Mr. Claremon was also the proprietor of the value investing blog, The Inoculated Investor. His background includes an MBA from the UCLA Anderson School of Management and a BS in Economics from the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School.

National Oilwell Varco: Dominant Supplier, Transformed

January 11, 2019 in Audio, Best Ideas 2019, Best Ideas 2019 Featured, Energy, Equities, Ideas, Large Cap, North America

Kevin Cope of Hutchinson Capital Management presented his in-depth investment thesis on National Oilwell Varco (US: NOV) at Best Ideas 2019.

Thesis summary:

National Oilwell Varco is the dominant supplier of the equipment used by oil and gas exploration companies to find and extract energy resources. With #1 market share in 80% of its 28 product lines, and no position lower than #3, the company has the scale and financial resources to adapt to the changing energy exploration market. As E&P companies have transitioned their capex budgets from large offshore projects to unconventional land drilling, the intensity of the equipment they consume has risen sharply. NOV has “followed the money” and transitioned their product offerings to match client needs.

NOV offers an opportunity to buy a company in the late stages of transition at generationally low industry conditions. This investment may appeal to (i) long-term buyers who look through the cycle, and (ii) opportunistic investors who transact within the cycle to take advantage of valuations that reflect overly pessimistic expectations.

The devastating downcycle for oil-related companies, which began in June 2014, has been so severe that it necessitated transformation for providers like National Oilwell Varco. The company’s superb management team navigated the treacherous cycle while transforming the company from one dependent on large offshore rig construction to one more broadly diversified. The company has a massive installed base with stable proprietary aftermarket revenue.

At the recent market quotation, investors are getting stable cash flow from the onshore business plus a free embedded option on the offshore recovery. NOV’s business has low capital intensity but sells to clients that commit large sums of capital to their businesses.

Strong FCF generation enabled NOV to pivot the business model toward shifting E&P spend while also developing the emerging technologies necessary to extend its competitive advantage.

We use long-term cash Economic Value Added models to estimate intrinsic value. Traditional multiple analysis is not constructive for this cyclical company that has undergone such a significant transformation.

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About the instructor:

Kevin Cope received a B.S. degree in Commerce and a B.A. degree in German and from Washington and Lee University in Lexington, VA. Kevin joined Hutchinson Capital Management in September 2015 as a Senior Research Analyst. Prior to joining the firm, he served as a Portfolio Manager and Senior Research Analyst at Cheyne Capital Management, a London-based investment firm. Kevin has more than 20 years of asset management experience working on behalf of both individuals and institutional clients.

As CIO, Kevin serves as the Director of Research with the responsibility for overseeing the equity portfolio management process. He is a member of the CFA Institute and the CFA Societies of San Francisco and New York. Kevin lives in Marin County with his wife and three children.

Three Ideas with Disciplined and Repeatable “Underwriting” Processes

January 11, 2019 in Audio, Best Ideas 2019, Best Ideas 2019 Featured, Equities, Europe, Financials, Ideas, Large Cap, Mid Cap, North America, Small Cap

Keith Smith of Bonhoeffer Fund presented his in-depth investment theses on STORE Capital (US: STOR), TPG Specialty Finance (US: TSLX), and Ashtead Group (UK: AHT) at Best Ideas 2019.

Read Keith’s related article on fundamental alternative investments.

Summary:

A common characteristic among the following firms is recurring revenue, with a large addressable market and and a modest valuation. These firms also have disciplined and repeatable underwriting processes to weed out the best opportunities in each of their opportunity sets and have historically generated above average returns on capital.

STORE Capital (US: STOR) is an internally managed triple net-lease real estate investment trust, or REIT. STORE is one of the largest and fastest growing net-lease REITs and owns a large, well-diversified portfolio that consists of investments in 2,206 property locations, substantially all of which are profit centers, in 49 states. The addressable market for STORE is large as STORE only has a 2% market share and is one of the larger triple-net lessors in the business.

STORE has increased book value and dividends per share by 13% per year and AFFO per share by 7% per year over the past five years. The management team has great underwriting with credit losses at 0.2% of the portfolio per year since inception (2014). The firm focuses on profitable unit economics associated with leases which reduces the risk of these leases. The focus is also on growing segments of the real estate market including services, experiential retail and mission critical manufacturing in growing regions of the country. The average remaining lease term is fourteen years.

The common shares recently traded at an adjusted funds from operations multiple of 16x and dividend yield of 4.4%. The trailing gross cap rate interest margin is 5.5%. STORE is modestly levered with a debt/equity ratio of 0.8x and has an investment grade credit rating. While the multiple is not cheap for the average real estate equity, it is for a secure, stable and growing cash flow stream with the opportunity to re-invest cash flows at high rates of return, currently ~12%.

In June 2017, Berkshire Hathaway took a 9.8% stake in STORE, close to the maximum an entity can hold of a REIT (10%), which is another testament to its underwriting process. The price paid by Berkshire when adjusted for the lack of marketability of the stock of 10% is 14x adjusted funds from operations.

TPG Specialty Finance (US: TSLX) is a business development company. The BDC provides senior secured loans (first-lien, second-lien, and unitranche), mezzanine debt, non-control structured equity, and common equity with a focus on co-investments for organic growth, acquisitions, market or product expansion, restructuring initiatives, recapitalizations, and refinancing. The BDC lends to in business services, software and technology, healthcare, energy, consumer and retail, manufacturing, industrials, royalty related businesses, education, and specialty finance.

At this point in the credit cycle, 94% of TPG Specialty’s loans are first-lien collateralized loans. The management team’s background is primarily from a specialty finance lender purchased by Wells Fargo in the late 1990s called Foothill Capital so team has bank level of underwriting experience. The team has great underwriting with credit losses at 0.5% of the portfolio per year since inception (2014). TPG Specialty has increased book value and dividends per share by 10% per year and had an average return on equity of 12% over the past five years.

The shares recently traded at an earnings multiple of 8.9x, and dividend yield of 9.6%. The trailing net interest margin (including all fees) is 11%. TPG Specialty is modestly levered with a debt/equity ratio of 0.8x and has an investment grade credit rating. Recently, BDCs have had an option to increase leverage and TPG is pursuing this and is increasing the target leverage levels and corresponding return in equity by 20%.

Ashtead Group (UK: AHT) rents a range of construction and industrial equipment. It offers equipment for use in lifting, powering, generation, moving, digging, compacting, drilling, supporting, scrubbing, pumping, directing, heating, and ventilating works. Ashtead is the second-largest U.S. equipment rental firm through its Sunbelt Rental subsidiary. Although equipment leasing is tied to the cyclical construction market, given Ashtead’s higher operating margins (due to geographic clustering) and Ashtead’s product and geographic diversification, the historic cyclicality of returns should be dampened. Ashtead has only an 8% market share in the U.S. rental equipment market and is one of the larger U.S. rental equipment lessors in the business.

Ashtead has increased book value and dividend per share by 52% per year and net income per share by 47% per year over the past five years. This growth has been achieved by a combination of organic growth via consolidation, Greenfield site openings, increased product offerings and share buybacks. Ashtead is modestly levered with a debt/equity ratio of 1.1x, a debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 1.7x, and has an investment grade credit rating. Ashtead has a large runway to invest at rates of returns of return in the upper teens (group returns on capital have been above 15% since 2013).

The shares recently traded at an earnings multiple of 7x, EV/EBITDA of 6x, and a dividend yield of 2%. Of the publicly traded equipment leasing firms (such as United Rentals, HERC Cramo & Ramirent), Ashtead has the highest return on equity (30%) and the lowest leverage.

Listen to this session:

slide presentation audio recording

About the instructor:

Keith Smith, the fund manager, brings over 20 years of valuation experience to the Bonhoeffer Fund. He is a CFA charterholder and received his MBA from UCLA. Keith currently serves as a Portfolio Manager at Bonhoeffer Capital and was previously a Managing Director of a valuation firm and his expertise includes corporate transactions, distressed loans, derivatives, and intangible assets. Warren Buffett and Benjamin Graham’s value-oriented approach of pursuing the “fifty-cents on the dollar” opportunities, underpins Keith’s investment strategy. The combination of his experience and track record led Keith to commit most of his investable net worth to the Bonhoeffer Fund model.

Chemtrade: Mid-Teens FCF Yield, with Near-Term Issues Largely Resolved

January 11, 2019 in Audio, Best Ideas 2019, Best Ideas 2019 Featured, Equities, Ideas, Materials, North America, Small Cap, Transcripts

Reno Giancola and Jeff Hales presented their in-depth investment thesis on Chemtrade Logistics (Canada: CHE.UN) at Best Ideas 2019.

Thesis summary:

Chemtrade Logistics is a global provider of industrial chemicals, diversified across three operating segments: sulphur products, water solutions, and electrochemcials.

Unlike traditional chemicals companies, Chemtrade’s business is stable with little commodity exposure or economic sensitivity. Chemtrade had an awful 2018, which has created an attractive opportunity for long-term investors.

The company faced rail congestion issues, extensive plant maintenance, costly litigation, a reduction in sulfur supply from a key supplier, and margin pressure in its municipal water solutions business driven by a lag in passing-through raw materials inflation. These issues have been resolved, and despite positive developments and strong/improving fundamentals for the sulphur products and electrochmcials businesses, the stock languishes near seven-year lows.

At 6.5x 2019E EBITDA, ~16% FCF yield, and ~11% dividend yield, the shares reflect a high degree of pessimism, which is unwarranted. Despite a challenging 2017-2018, the company has a long history of creating value for shareholders. Since the IPO in 2001, total shareholder return has been 11+% per annum, almost double the S&P/TSX Composite Index over the same period.

Reno and Jeff estimate the company is conservatively worth $16-18 per share, representing roughly 50-100% upside.

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About the instructors:

Reno Giancola is President of Port Investments Inc., an investment company. Mr. Giancola was previously a Portfolio Manager at Alignvest Capital Management, where he managed North American concentrated long-only and equity long/short funds. Prior to Alignvest, he was Vice-President & Portfolio Manager at Gluskin Sheff + Associates, where he managed several North American equity long/short Funds. Mr. Giancola graduated from Wilfrid Laurier University with a Bachelors of Business Administration and a minor in Economics. He has also earned his Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation. Mr. Giancola is an elected member of the User Advisory Council of the Accounting Standards Board.

Jeff Hales is President of Provident Capital, a private investment company. Mr. Hales was previously a Portfolio Manager at Alignvest Capital Management, where he managed North American concentrated long-only and equity long/short funds. Prior to Alignvest, he was Vice-President & Portfolio Manager at Gluskin Sheff + Associates, where he managed a variety of North American equity strategies. Mr. Hales graduated from Wilfrid Laurier University with a B.A. in Economics, earning the Governor General’s Academic Medal as the top student in his undergraduate class. He has also earned his CFA designation.

Las desventajas de la gestión pasiva

January 11, 2019 in Contenido Libre, Miscelánea, MOI Global en Español

NOTA DEL EDITOR: El siguiente texto es un extracto de una carta trimestral de Invexcel Patrimonio.

* * *

En 2017, el 42% de los activos de fondos estadounidenses estaban invertidos a través de vehículos pasivos, cifra creciente desde sólo un 12% en el año 2000. A estas cantidades hay que añadir las gestionadas por un número no desdeñable de gestores de fondos, que invierten desviándose muy poco de la composición del índice. Probablemente en el último año y medio el dato de inversión pasiva sobre el total, haya crecido aún más.

Los adeptos a la inversión pasiva creen firmemente en la “Hipótesis de Mercados Eficientes” cuya conclusión es que no se puede batir al mercado con una gestión activa. Su lógica es que el mercado está formado precisamente por los inversores activos y, de media, los rendimientos obtenidos son los del mercado antes de comisiones y gastos, y por tanto, peores después de contabilizar éstos. En su pensamiento, las compañías cotizan a precios justos y por tanto no existen oportunidades.

Desventajas de la gestión pasiva

La inversión pasiva no invierte en compañías que no sean parte de los principales índices, así que cuando se producen fuertes entradas de fondos de inversores pasivos, estas compañías, no se ven beneficiadas por el flujo inversor. La inversión activa que se ha transformado en pasiva, es probable haya retirado fondos de compañías que no forman parte del índice para invertirlo en aquellas que sí los conforman, consiguiendo que unas se aprecien y las otras caigan por razones que nada tienen que ver con sus fundamentales o marcha del negocio. Al efecto negativo de una caída de precio le sigue uno positivo: Oportunidades muy atractivas para los gestores atentos.

Así, si la inversión pasiva se beneficia de los dictados de quien estudia un sector o compañía, nos preguntamos qué implicaciones tendrá que cada vez menos gente lo haga. Si los precios van por libre y no dependen de la media de los gestores ¿no dejarán de ser justos? ¿no sería estupendo ser el único que mira los fundamentales en un mundo donde el dinero entra en una compañía en la medida en que sea más grande y esté más cara?

La proliferación de ETF’s está haciendo daño a quien no invierte como ellos en una subida, pero ¿y en bajada?

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