China International Travel Service: Operates Duty Free Stores Across China and China’s Largest Domestic Travel Agency

Ali Akay and Jason Mitra presented their in-depth investment thesis on China International Travel Service (China: 601888) at Asian Investing Summit 2014.

China International Travel Service: Operates Duty Free stores across China (>95% of profits) and is also China’s largest domestic travel agency (<5% of profits). A key beneficiary of secular growth in Chinese travel and leisure spending, with potential to see a step change in revenue from new projects (Haitang Bay project; mainland downtown stores). Share price upside estimated at ~30% in a base case scenario and ~90% in an optimistic scenario. The company fits well with what Carrhae looks for in emerging markets businesses: 1) secular over cyclical growth; 2) government support; 3) natural monopolies; 4) demographic / macroeconomic tailwinds.

About the instructor:

Ali Akay is an investment management professional with significant experience in the operation of a hedge fund management business. Ali worked from 1999 – 2001 at McKinsey & Company as a business analyst in the corporate finance and strategy practice in New York. From 2001 – 2003 Ali was employed at Goldman Sachs in the Principal Strategies Group as an Associate focused on Latin American investments. From 2003 – 2008 Ali was an employee and later a partner at HBK Investments, a hedge fund management firm. At HBK Ali was initially a senior analyst focused on emerging market investments from the New York office, latterly he was a partner and portfolio manager, managing the emerging market equities long/short portfolio from the London office, he also founded HBK’s Istanbul office in February 2008. From 2008 until June 2011 Ali was a portfolio manager and partner at SAC Global Investors where he managed the emerging market equities long/short portfolio from the London office, he was also a member of the SAC Global Investment Committee.