Kazakhstan: Resource-Rich, Growing Economy at Mid-Single-Digit P/Es

Isaac Schwartz of Robotti & Company discussed his investment thesis on Kazakhstan and three avenues for participation: Kazatomprom, Air Astana, and the Kazakh banking sector at Asian Investing Summit 2026.

Session summary:

Isaac presented an investment case for Kazakhstan and three avenues for participation: Kazatomprom, Air Astana, and the Kazakh banking sector. The country suffers from an “invisibility tax” that depresses valuations and rewards long-term fundamental investors. Sharing a 2,000-mile border with China and a GDP per capita on par with Turkey and Mexico, the economy approaches $500 billion. Kazakhstan is the world’s largest uranium producer (40% of global output) and produces ~2 million bbl/day of oil.

Kazatomprom, the National Atomic Energy Company, is dual listed in London and in-country, 63% owned by the Sovereign Wealth Fund, with a ~$20 billion market cap. It produces half of Kazakhstan’s uranium output. Recent revisions to subsoil rights laws raised its mandated stake in new uranium developments from 50% to 75%, ensuring it captures a growing share of the country’s industry. For investors constructive on nuclear, it offers direct exposure to the leading global producer.

Air Astana, the national airline, has ~$1.5 billion in revenues and a ~$500 million market cap, dual listed in London and in-country, ~42% owned by the Sovereign Wealth Fund. Built from a $17 million investment 25 years ago, it operates ~80 Airbus A320s with twin hubs in Almaty and Astana and a 100%-owned LCC, FlyArystan. Transit business contributes more than half of revenues. The balance sheet has no direct debt outside aircraft leases, a large cash position, and management has been repurchasing shares.

Four banks dominate Kazakhstan — Halyk, Kaspi, Bank CenterCredit, and ForteBank. Halyk’s loans have grown from ~$6 billion to ~$30 billion over a decade, with income rising from $350 million to >$2 billion and a two-decade EPS CAGR of 14%. Banking assets sit at ~$150 billion vs. >$400 billion of GDP — loans/GDP below one-third, well below economies at comparable income levels. Isaac sees a dual tailwind: mid-single-digit GDP growth and credit penetration convergence.

Air Astana’s normalized earnings imply a mid-single-digit P/E, a steep discount to global peers. Bank CenterCredit recently traded at a low single-digit P/E, with post-trough appreciation driven by fundamentals rather than multiple expansion. Halyk’s $4 stock-price trough a decade ago now corresponds to its $4 annual dividend, an effective 100% yield on original cost. Isaac frames Kazakhstan’s “invisibility tax” as the source of attractively priced entry into a regional hegemon.

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About the instructor:

Isaac Schwartz is a portfolio manager and seeks to achieve long-term gains by investing in undervalued securities (primarily stocks) of companies throughout the world. Isaac serves as a director of Menu Group (U.K.) Ltd., the leading online food delivery platform in several former Soviet Republics, and of Complete Start Inc., a plant-based health food company in the U.S. Prior to joining Robotti & Company in 2002, Isaac worked for Schiff’s Insurance Observer, an investigative journal, where he did research on the property-casualty and annuity insurance industries. Isaac graduated from Wharton with a BS in Economics.

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