Canal+: African Growth Engine Hidden Inside Undervalued European Spinoff

Julio Utrera of Southeastern Asset Management presented his investment thesis on Canal+ (UK: CAN; South Africa: CNP) at Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2026.

Thesis summary:

Canal+ is a global pay-TV and streaming super-aggregator that produces, distributes, and aggregates content and sports rights under long-duration subscription contracts. Julio sees a scaled, moated business mispriced for the complexity of its December 2024 Vivendi spinoff, a pound-denominated London listing for a euro reporter, and a Bolloré overhang. The shares fell over 20% on debut and have stayed there. After the December 2025 MultiChoice acquisition, Canal+ carries about 42m subscribers, a top-seven global video platform, with a 60% pay-TV share in France.

The case turns on two engines inflecting together. Africa is the primary driver: MultiChoice extends francophone leadership across 19 Sub-Saharan countries into English- and Portuguese-speaking markets, leaving the combined group with over 25% of continental pay-TV share, more than twice its nearest rival. Julio argues the region sits 20 years behind Europe, where low broadband, costly mobile data, and satellite economics favor Canal+’s decoder model, while 800m of population growth by 2050 and rising electrification widen the base. Management guides to over €400m of annual synergies by 2030, €250m already in FY2026.

The second engine is the rationalized European core. France, long treated as a drag, reached break-even this year after recovering from 4.5m subscribers in 2019 to 5.7m in 2025, with OTT now a quarter of the base, and Julio expects margins to converge toward European norms. He adds roughly €1bn of non-core value across StudioCanal, Dailymotion, GVA, and several minority stakes.

Management alignment is tight. CEO Maxime Saada’s incentive plan pays only above £5.2 per share, near double the recent price, and the board has bought stock personally, with Saada holding about €5m. Bolloré, the largest holder above 31% through Compagnie de L’Odet, keeps adding shares and has a record of crystallizing value, as with the 2021 UMG spinoff. Recent quarters cleared the MultiChoice close, the French VAT dispute, and UEFA renewals at better terms.

On price, the shares recently traded at about £2.5 to £2.6, for a €3bn market cap, against roughly 4x 2027 EV/EBITDA and a teens FCF yield. Julio notes the €2.5bn paid for MultiChoice alone approaches the group’s market value. His SOTP, valuing Africa at low-double-digit multiples and Europe lower, yields €5bn to €8bn of equity, or €5.6 per share centrally (£4.9) and up to €8.6 (£7.5). Management targets €500m of group FCF by 2028, about €0.50 per share, implying 75% to over 100% upside.

The full session is available exclusively to members of MOI Global.

Members, log in below to access the full session.

Not a member?

Thank you for your interest.  Please note that MOI Global is closed to new members at this time. If you would like to join the waiting list, complete the following form:

First name:

Last name:

Email address:

City / state / country:

Company:

How did you hear about MOI Global? Select Member referral Staff This website Media / Internet Other

If referral, please provide member's name:

Which of the following applies most closely to you? Select Investment Firm - Head Investment Firm - Analyst or PM Institutional Allocator - Firm C-Level Executive Institutional Allocator - Firm Employee Family Office - Head or Co-Owner Family Office - Employee Non-Investment Firm - C-Level Executive Non-Investment Firm - Employee Other

How do you hope to add value to the community?

Leave this field empty if you're human:

About the instructor:

Julio Utrera, CFA serves as Senior Analyst at Southeastern Asset Management. He joined Southeastern’s London Office as an Analyst in 2021. He previously held public and private equity investment research roles in T. Rowe Price International Equities and AnaCap Financial Partners. Prior to that, he was an M&A Analyst at J.P. Morgan’s Investment Banking division in London. Mr. Utrera received his bachelor’s degree in Business Administration and Finance from C.U.N.E.F University and a master’s degree in Value Investing from OMMA Business School, as well as holding the CFA Certificate in ESG Investing.

The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.