Massimo Fuggetta of Bayes Investments presented his in-depth investment thesis on Expert System (Italy: EXSY) at European Investing Summit 2019.

Thesis summary:

Expert System is a world leader in Artificial Intelligence and semantic technology, where its flagship product Cogito delivers text analytics and language understanding that facilitate the unstructured extraction of information from Big Data. Cogito was created some 20 years ago and has been developing and evolving since then. Cogito transforms messy, chaotic, unstructured information into ordered, insightful and actionable knowledge. It does so by combining Machine Learning with Semantic analysis that is able to achieve a complete understanding of a text, as a person would. Based in patented AI algorithms, Cogito mimics the human ability to read and understand any textual concept. Today Expert System is an international public company (free float is around 65%) with branches in US, UK, France, Germany, Spain and Italy with local technical and sales teams, and 230 employees. 2018 revenues almost doubled in the last three years to 29 million. More than half of revenues are generated outside Italy – 33% in Europe and 23% in US. The company has still to reach profitability and financial stability, but we are confident it is on its way there. This has finally been recognised in the market, where the stock price tripled this year from 1.2 euro to 3.6. We think growth is set to continue and accelerate in the coming few years.

Read Massimo’s article about investing in Italy, Don’t You Believe Them.

Replay this LIVE session:

slides white paper audio recording

About the instructor:

Massimo Fuggetta started his career as a portfolio manager in 1988 at JP Morgan Investment Management in London, where he rose to become Head of the Global Balanced Group, with overall responsibility for international balanced portfolios. In 1999 he left JPMIM to become Chief Investment Officer and Director General at Sanpaolo IMI Asset Management in Milan, where in 2000 he became Chief Executive Officer. He left the company in 2001 to start Horatius, which was incorporated in 2004 as an advisory company and in 2007 became an asset management company. He was a founding shareholder, a Board member and the CIO of Horatius. In 2012 Massimo left Horatius and went back to London, where in 2014 he founded Bayes Investments.

Massimo graduated in Economics at LUISS, Rome and holds a Master’s Degree (M.Phil.) and a Doctorate (D.Phil.) in Economics from the University of Oxford. Massimo also taught Behavioural Finance in the Master in Economics course at Bocconi University in Milan and served in the Editorial Board of the Financial Analyst Journal.

In 2012, Massimo started the Bayes blog at, which has acquired popularity in the Value Investing community.