AbraSilver: Silver/Gold Explorer in Argentina With Proven Management

Private investor Samir Mohamed presented his investment thesis on AbraSilver Resource Corporation (Canada: ABRA) at Best Ideas 2026.

Thesis summary:

Samir views AbraSilver as a prime vehicle to capitalize on a structural bull market in precious metals, specifically silver. He contends that silver remains undervalued relative to gold and historic inflation-adjusted highs, with physical demand increasingly driving pricing. The company operates in Argentina, a jurisdiction that Samir argues has improved substantially under the administration of Javier Milei. The introduction of the RIGI investment incentive framework—featuring a reduced corporate tax rate of 25%, the elimination of export duties, and 30-year fiscal stability agreements—has positioned Argentina as a fiscally competitive destination for mining capital relative to regional peers like Chile, Peru, and Mexico.

The company’s flagship asset, the Diablillos project in Salta province, sits at a critical inflection point on the Lassonde curve, transitioning from the engineering phase toward development. A Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) is expected in Q2 2026, with a construction decision anticipated in the second half of the year and commercial production targeted for late 2029. The current mine plan projects a 13-year life with average annual production of approximately 6 million ounces of silver and 72,000 ounces of gold. As an open-pit operation with secured local water access and no nearby communities to disturb, the project is estimated to achieve an AISC of less than $13 per silver equivalent ounce, placing it in the lower quartile of the industry cost curve.

Beyond the existing mine plan, Samir highlights several “free options” that offer upside not currently reflected in the share price. The company recently reported a 36% increase in resources, which will be incorporated into the upcoming technical studies to potentially extend mine life or increase throughput. Additionally, AbraSilver has consistently added roughly 40 million AgEq ounces annually through exploration. A secondary asset, the La Coipita copper-gold project in San Juan, provides further optionality through a collaboration with Teck, where the partner funds exploration costs to earn an 80% interest, allowing AbraSilver to retain upside without capital outlay.

The leadership team includes executives with experience at major entities such as Lundin Mining, Barrick, and Wheaton Precious Metals, providing the requisite expertise for mine financing and construction. Management and the board hold a 3% equity stake, investing alongside notable shareholders including Eric Sprott and Kinross Gold. Upcoming catalysts include the approval of environmental permits and tax incentives in Q1 2026, followed by the release of the DFS and an updated resource estimate in Q2 2026.

Regarding valuation, Samir asserts that the company trades at a distinct discount to the project’s intrinsic value. Using a base case with silver at $67/oz, gold at $4,200/oz, and a 13% discount rate, he calculates the NPV of the Diablillos project at approximately $2.7 billion. With the company’s market capitalization recently hovering around $1.3 billion, the stock trades at roughly 0.5x NPV based on the existing mine plan. When adjusting for the recent resource expansion and projecting continued exploration success over the next four years, Samir estimates the NPV could reach $5.4 billion, implying a potential upside of roughly 320% by mid-2028.

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About the instructor:

Samir Mohamed started with value investing in 1999 and manages his own capital, full time since 2016. His focus in recent years has been on commodity businesses (especially in mining) with low cost assets run by great capital allocators. Samir enjoys collaborating with other value investors regularly via in-person meetings. He was global head of the product management teams of a 170 Mio. EUR industrial business at Siemens. He worked at Siemens for 13 years. Samir has a master’s degree in Management, Technology, and Economics and a bachelor’s degree in material science, both from ETH Zurich. He is based in Bangkok, Thailand.