Gwen Hofmeyr on Methods to Verify a Company’s Market Share

Gwen Hofmeyr of Maiden Financial shared her research in a presentation entitled, Testing Market Share: Methods to Verify a Company’s True Market Position.

Gwen shares key insights into verifying a company’s market position — looking beyond standard market share disclosures to assess competitive standing. She demonstrates how investors can rigorously question management’s market share claims instead of accepting them at face value. By applying an “owner-like” scrutiny, Gwen shows that granular research can determine if a company’s touted competitive edge is genuinely defensible or overstated.

Gwen notes that companies often define their “market” selectively, making reported market share figures unclear or misleading. Because independently verifying those figures is time-consuming, management has latitude to present a rosy picture that may gloss over important nuances. When a company boasts “We have X% market share,” investors should ask, “What do you mean by that?”

She outlines three methods to test market share claims: product analysis, geospatial analysis, and platform analysis. Each technique examines a firm’s standing from a different angle—comparing specific product lines, mapping regional market presence, or benchmarking the breadth of its platform against peers. Together, these tools yield a more granular, owner-like view of competitiveness. The goal is to give investors an independent, fact-based understanding of a company’s position, akin to the insight of an industry insider.

For example, Melexis, a Belgian automotive sensor maker that ranks only 4th or 5th in global sensor sales, turned out to be the #1 supplier of certain niche sensors (magnetic position sensors) — a sub-market leadership that broad industry stats had overlooked.

Likewise, Palfinger (a knuckle-boom crane manufacturer) was found to command a majority share of the heavy-duty crane segment, even though its reported global share is ~30–35%. This specialization helped Palfinger keep prices firm even as broader construction markets softened.

Another case is 4imprint Group, a promotional products distributor with about a 5% North American market share. Gwen’s platform analysis revealed that 4imprint is #1 in product breadth across virtually all categories, so its modest overall share belies a commanding lead in its niche.

Finally, a geospatial study of regional grocer Ingles Markets debunked management’s claim that new discount rivals were heavily encroaching on its turf. Mapping 95% of Ingles’s store footprint showed that the threat from Aldi and Trader Joe’s was greatly overstated, and that Ingles’s ownership of strategic store sites provides a defensive advantage.

Across these cases, the findings either affirmed a company’s competitive moat or corrected the prevailing narrative about its market position. This demonstrates the value of verifying market share claims: by digging deeper, long-term investors can gain a clearer and more confident view of a business’s true competitive standing.

Presentation overview:

• Introduction – Market Share Definitions & Context
• Issues with Market Share Disclosure
• Methods to Verify Market Share (Product, Geospatial, Platform Analysis)
• Case Study: Melexis (Product Analysis – Automotive Sensors)
• Case Study: Palfinger (Product Analysis – Heavy-Duty Cranes)
• Case Study: 4imprint Group (Platform Analysis – Promotional Products)
• Case Study: Ingles Markets (Geospatial Analysis – Store Footprint)
• Conclusion – Key Lessons

The session was hosted by Tarek Andari and recorded in July 2025.

About the instructor:

Gwen Hofmeyr is the founder of Maiden Financial. Previously, Gwen worked as an analyst for Folly Partners, the family office of Andrew Wilkinson and Chris Sparling, who are co-founders of the up-and-coming Berkshire Hathaway of internet businesses, Tiny Capital.