"People can and do reach different conclusions based on the same evidence because they interpret evidence based on different prior beliefs." -Bayes' rule, as found in a @manualofideas
— a priori (@aPr1ori) February 18, 2018
John Burr Williams published “The Theory of Investment Value” in 1938. Chapter 15, “A Chapter for Skeptics,” feels contemporary and is a useful read for all investors who are unconvinced of the utility of a discounted cash flow model. https://t.co/PdpO2LDbcw
— Michael Mauboussin (@mjmauboussin) February 13, 2018
.@AnnieDuke has a new book out today, "Thinking in Bets," which is a great read for not only for investors but for all decision makers who operate in probabilistic domains. Well written, entertaining, and packed with useful concepts. https://t.co/Mg8U2OAdcI
— Michael Mauboussin (@mjmauboussin) February 6, 2018
As Charlie Munger said at the 2014 Berkshire meeting: “Costco is unbelievable. It is against the human nature of many entrepreneurial people to get price down and service up…”
— Value Investor AP (@ValueInvestorAP) January 12, 2018
Haters don't really hate you.
They hate themselves, because you're a reflection of what they wish to be
— Paulo Coelho (@paulocoelho) January 5, 2018
I very much enjoyed my conversation [email protected] on my journey with The Dakshana Foundation @DakshanaIndia . I love the work done by @JMihaljevic and his awesome team at @manualofideas. https://t.co/xSmC7veAJh https://t.co/FB8Wf1N8ws https://t.co/QjgHVX0e6M
— Mohnish Pabrai (@MohnishPabrai) December 19, 2017
How to be a Wall Street oil analyst for dummies:
Take the average oil price for past 3 months. Add $5. Subtract $5. This is your forecasted price range.
Say: “US shale production is strong. Global demand is surprising. And the next OPEC meeting is very important.”
— John Arnold (@JohnArnoldFndtn) December 14, 2017
"If you see the world accurately, it's bound to be humorous, because it's ridiculous."
– Charlie Munger
— The Rational Walk (@rationalwalk) December 14, 2017
This is the best book I read this year. Ostensibly about tennis, it’s actually a guide to maintaining focus & a quiet mind “regardless of circumstances or surroundings”, and remaining calm “in the midst of rapid & unsettling change”. I highly recommend it. https://t.co/t0XxDs61h7
— Devin Haran (@DevinHaran) December 13, 2017
Question to Bill Belichick: "With all you have accomplished in your coaching career, what is left that you still want to accomplish?"
Belichick's answer: "I'd like to go out and have a good practice today. That would be at the top of the list right now."
— Shane Parrish (@farnamstreet) December 5, 2017
-"I know this field cold. Not even Milton Friedman is going to give me a hard time"
(Harry Markovitz, 24h before dissertation defense)
-"This is not economics, & we can't give you a PhD in economics for a dissertation that is not economics"
(Milton Friedman, D-Day) https://t.co/DZGQusVf27
— Beatrice Cherrier (@Undercoverhist) November 28, 2017
Great framework from @mjmauboussin.
#4 is a source of massive volatility in dealmaking. Constant tension between falling in love and declaring "screw it" while exiting stage left. Both are ever-present and neither are healthy. http://pic.twitter.com/YovPpNQe9m
— Brent Beshore (@BrentBeshore) November 20, 2017
"Time and time again, in every market cycle I have witnessed, the extremes of emotion always appear, even among experienced investors."
— Science of Hitting (@TSOH_Investing) November 8, 2017
A thing I learned advising startups that generalizes: people get the most upset when you tell them true things they wish were false.
— Sam Altman (@sama) November 4, 2017
What's your favorite trade publication? I'm a fan of Internet Retailer, Restaurant Finance Monitor, Automotive News. Looking to add a few
— Connor Leonard (@Connor_Leonard) October 12, 2017
"Physics, in its pure form…doesn’t build good bridges. You need engineering. That’s what the behavioral approach to economics is" (Thaler)
— Devin Haran (@DevinHaran) October 9, 2017
"To the extent that all I've done is pick stocks that have gone up and sat on my ass as my family got richer, I haven't left much contribution to society. I guess it's a lot like Wall Street. The difference is, I feel ashamed of it."
— Munger on his career
— Morgan Housel (@morganhousel) October 1, 2017
Superforecasting 101: Be open-minded enough to acknowledge limits of open-mindedness. Mindless "on-one-hand-on-the-other" is a rigidity trap
— Philip E. Tetlock (@PTetlock) September 10, 2017
Bull markets take focus off what really matters: risk adjusted returns. Wait for other side of cycle. Don't confuse brains w/ a bull market!
— Jeffrey Gundlach (@TruthGundlach) August 24, 2017