The most obvious indication that a company is mortgaging their moat isn’t in the bottom line, it’s in the stakeholder feedback.

Pay close attention to what their employees, customers, & suppliers say about them. https://t.co/pzj1jeDtyO

— Ryan Henderson (@CCM_Ryan) September 6, 2020

Superforecasting 101 is about thinking more self-critically about how you think. See yourself as balancing opposing errors: the risks of learning too much from history vs. too little, of worrying too much about Black/Gray Swans vs too little, of over- vs under-reacting to news,… https://t.co/8i4kEK5l0E

— Philip E. Tetlock (@PTetlock) September 5, 2020

Superforecasting 101 is about thinking more self-critically about how you think. See yourself as balancing opposing errors: the risks of learning too much from history vs. too little, of worrying too much about Black/Gray Swans vs too little, of over- vs under-reacting to news,… https://t.co/8i4kEK5l0E

— Philip E. Tetlock (@PTetlock) September 5, 2020

Thanks for sharing. Definitely worth the time. Here's the one that I re-read: https://t.co/wVXkhRjLwB

— Todd Wenning (@ToddWenning) September 4, 2020

I have a calendar invite to myself to read this every 6 months as a reality check. Bill Watterson, creator of Calvin & Hobbes, 1990 Kenyon commencement speech. Worthy of 8 minutes of your day. 🙂https://t.co/0JBnaw4EQz pic.twitter.com/ZHPHtM5Rxu

— Jake Taylor (@farnamjake1) September 4, 2020

One of my favorite new activities is to go back years in the companies reporting and see if I can predict what will happen in the next few years before looking at the current numbers. It's interesting…

— Hermann Peterscheck (@petershk) September 4, 2020

At Ensemble, we believe that successful companies deliver value to all stakeholders. Stakeholder value is the source that gives rise to profits and so companies that focus exclusively on shareholders are paying lip service to their long-term profit goals. https://t.co/8ZluRVptFq

— Ensemble Capital (@IntrinsicInv) September 3, 2020

Vector theory of impact:

— Sam Altman (@sama) August 24, 2020

Incidentally, the conversation about how the "stock market" is supposedly disconnected from the "real economy" is another example of how much information the process of unitary price index construction destroys. There's so much information when you disaggregate.

— Nathan Tankus (@NathanTankus) August 23, 2020

You can’t always tell if someone is coming from a good place or not

But you can almost always figure out what their incentive is… and that’s usually all you need to know

— Oliver 🥂 (@oliviercantin) August 19, 2020

The cure for ignorance is doubt.

— Hermann Peterscheck (@petershk) August 18, 2020

Good paper by Horizon Kinetics on "Owner-Operators"https://t.co/gnHY2JImwH

— Clark Square Capital (@ClarkSquareCap) August 16, 2020

.@PenderDave chats with @JMihaljevic in the latest Pender Podcast. They discuss value investing, the history of @manualofideas, technology businesses and small and micro-cap investing. https://t.co/qwb6CwauXU pic.twitter.com/kMSR4FULnc

— PenderFund Capital (@Penderfund) August 13, 2020

Excellent read: "The Pitfalls of Net-Net Investing" (by @nothingbutnnets) https://t.co/z6Teb5OUFC pic.twitter.com/U7P4oadIdN

— Shai Dardashti (@ShaiDardashti) August 13, 2020

Is Tesla overvalued?

In the short term, definitely yes. In 2030, Tesla will likely be a trillion dollar market cap company.

(Thread) pic.twitter.com/qPGUUg73dY

— Remo Uherek (@remouherek) July 29, 2020

Essay: An Unsung Hero – by Peter D. Kaufman https://t.co/chOuxal1uj

Peter Kaufman has kindly passed along the essay that went with his January presentation at Redlands Forum to non-attendees of his talk, and permit for wider distribution of this essay. It's a must-read.

— Value Investing World Newsletter (@VInvestingWorld) July 22, 2020

An older but still relevant article about the danger of great optimism in valuing growth stocks.https://t.co/jk1V8whz7Y

— Daniel Gladis (@danielgladis) July 22, 2020

Particularly enjoying this title, a hidden gem that deserves greater awareness. Thank you, @SMRFinvestments, for so generously sharing your domain expertise. https://t.co/xeakYjSLEa pic.twitter.com/MSuEid9ytO

— Shai Dardashti (@ShaiDardashti) July 15, 2020

Limited Edition – Not found in stores
Order here => https://t.co/RqOruPpT0B pic.twitter.com/LopEmtEpLJ

— LoveMusic (@Musiclove1311) July 14, 2020

What’s the best attribute of your company’s culture? @okta it’s how thankful and appreciative folks are of teammates. Now you go!

— Todd McKinnon (@toddmckinnon) July 7, 2020

"Continuing his story of self-discovery, Greenblatt recalls that at Graduate school at Wharton, he 'wrote a paper published in the Journal of portfolio management.' In his typically humble nature, Mr. Greenblatt chose to leave out the findings…" https://t.co/SBXzZ1iRWL pic.twitter.com/Jc6rSWOYiG

— Shai Dardashti (@ShaiDardashti) July 6, 2020

The median investor's first question is "who else is investing?"

The reason really good investors don't ask this is not because they're more disciplined, but because averaging their opinion of you with those of other investors would decrease its accuracy.

— Paul Graham (@paulg) June 29, 2020

In September 1957 Frank Lloyd Wright, then aged 88, appeared on two segments of a great show called “The Mike Wallace Interview”. I strongly recommend at least two viewings. So much insight on humanity and issues we still face today.

— Jeffrey Gundlach (@TruthGundlach) June 27, 2020

An excellent case study on Henry Singleton and Teledyne. Worth a read. https://t.co/z62g7lIl5V

— Clark Square Capital (@ClarkSquareCap) June 24, 2020

Greenwald's Approach to Valuation: pic.twitter.com/ZhLv63OL53

— Martin Bruteig (@aksjefokus) June 23, 2020

That interview was one of the highlights of my professional career! https://t.co/CV2aasM4Wc

— Michael Mauboussin (@mjmauboussin) June 22, 2020

In the chaos of March & April a few days of WSJ/NYT/FT began to pile up, unread until just now. The changes in events, sentiment, reactions, policy, etc. are just mind-bending. I will never understand people who think you can’t gain valuable perspective by reading old newspapers.

— Phil Ordway (@pcordway) June 22, 2020

Hedge fund investors are suckers.

Fascinating paper shows that when a hedge fund makes $1, the client only gets 36 cents.https://t.co/SwmjZbDA6Z

— Jesse Eisinger (@eisingerj) June 21, 2020

“The Richest Man in Babylon” by George Clason. I buy it by the case. Every student and young adult should learn the power of compound interest, saving and thrift – before it’s too late. If you don’t start saving now, you won’t catch up. Learn to save before you learn to spend. https://t.co/oPHEFrBX2t

— Christopher Bloomstran (@ChrisBloomstran) June 18, 2020

The Man for All Markets by Edward Thorp. One of the most fascinating human beings.

— Daniel Gladis (@danielgladis) June 17, 2020

This is a must-have!

181 pages of Peter Lynch's Articles for Worth Magazine from 1993-1999https://t.co/vMY0nzeUkw pic.twitter.com/0vpxZdyMyE

— Andrew M. Kuhn (@FocusedCompound) June 14, 2020

David Einhorn’s Speech at the Value Investing Congress (2006):https://t.co/kiZK66l1CI

— Clark Square Capital (@ClarkSquareCap) June 15, 2020

I like the crispness of this way of thinking about valuation pic.twitter.com/RcG5lCqGwY

— Mikhail Bakunin (@MishaBakunin) June 12, 2020

After some requests, posting the general list I sent @JarenGlover. Not meant to be totally exhaustive, and also purposefully left off investing/markets books.

— Andrew Marks (@andrewfmarks) May 23, 2020

Mispriced stocks are caused by investor herding, not a lack of info. So the antidote is independent thought, not more research.

— PermanentCapital (@permanentcap) June 4, 2020

Another classic from the archives:

Matt Rose: “Less is NOT better” – Railway Age https://t.co/pbWJGzW5eu

— Phil Ordway (@pcordway) June 4, 2020

You know you are a value investor when you are upset when a stock goes up.

— Tim Eriksen (@eriksen_tim) March 19, 2020

The most underrated, underquoted, and under-appreciated book is Peter Lynch's "Beating the Street."

It substantially informs how I think about and approach investing in cyclical companies from a value standpoint, and is packed with other investing nuggets.

Read it.

— Gwen Hofmeyr (@Tinyvalue) May 28, 2020

Some valuable insights on serial acquirers here, Bill. (And a good list of companies.) https://t.co/LPUJUWwmGp

— Costa Verde Capital (@CostaVerdeCap) May 26, 2020

Here are two books we get our team to read. Billion Dollar Lessons by Mui and Carroll and Deals from Hell by Bruner. If the company is run by a former consultant or banker, run for the hills.

— David Barr (@PenderDave) May 26, 2020

I highly recommend this article by @CunninghamProf

The Case for Empowering Quality Shareholders @SSRN https://t.co/JCejIBMxJ8

— Phil Ordway (@pcordway) May 19, 2020

It is a great movie. And it has relevance to the investing process. https://t.co/pEaJyYBAM2

— Mohnish Pabrai (@MohnishPabrai) May 17, 2020

In 2011, I gave a Chancellor's Talk at Vanderbilt called "Missteps to Mayhem." This text represents a fairly full accounting, in my words, of how I did some things. Vanderbilt carries the text at link on their website. #Vandy #FirstSpeech #HistoryRhymeshttps://t.co/OZMbkr9WcS

— michaeljburry (@michaeljburry) May 13, 2020

This is one of my favorite papers on valuation: "The P/E Ratio – A User's Manual" by the team over at Epoch Investment Partners. Highly recommended. https://t.co/qLJn7weSBN

— Clark Square Capital (@ClarkSquareCap) May 1, 2020

1. Resources on Valuation – a Thread.

The purpose of this thread is to share helpful articles, notes, and presentations on the topic of valuation. Thanks to all those that have shared these resources with me! These are in no particular order, and I plan to keep adding:

— Clark Square Capital (@ClarkSquareCap) May 2, 2020

Came across this speech that Li Lu of Himalaya Capital gave to Peking university. Amazing clarity and insights.

No wonder Charlie Munger is invested with Li. Enjoy!https://t.co/w8gKLoS5jB

Summarizing my takeaways:

— Rajeev Agrawal, CFA (@rajeev_agr) April 19, 2020

Patrick Collison's book recommendations: https://t.co/0ofZoWv1DE

— Paul Graham (@paulg) April 19, 2020

Best thing I've read this Sunday. Puts into words my discomfort over the "trade off lives to save the economy" narrative that has been emerging. Thank you @EpsilonTheory… I hope this spreads far and wide https://t.co/0M7yXTcjoX

— Max Niederhofer (@maxniederhofer) March 29, 2020

John, please interview Dr. Michael Burry, the best investor of all time

— HAETAE (@haetae_capital) March 29, 2020

When you see $1,200, $12,000 order take $50M, $100M (say 25% market cap) off a solid company, its easy to see that stocks move on incredibly small/incremental bits of investment – wildly disproportionate (small!) relative to invested captial.

— Nat Stewart (@natstewart5) March 26, 2020

Pleased to share our new research piece: "BIN There, Done That." Should appeal to fans of @PTetlock, Danny Kahneman, @VSatopaa, Barb Mellers, @SibOliv, @CassSunstein. https://t.co/aPwmgGxGuQ

— Michael Mauboussin (@mjmauboussin) March 20, 2020

The Man Who Never Lost, by John Train (October 2, 1978 issue of Forbes) pic.twitter.com/rQGTIKiJR7

— Shai Dardashti (@ShaiDardashti) March 16, 2020

Despite portfolio sizing being so important (one of 3 most important investing attributes according to Mr Sankaran Naren) very little is written on the topic. @IntrinsicInv has brilliant 7-part write up on the subject. My notes are appended but highly recommend the blog. pic.twitter.com/MrPooTLMDb

— Bhavin Gandhi (@bhavinjan1978) March 15, 2020

Good time for wisdom from Ben Graham: "Basically, price fluctuations have only one significant meaning for the true investor. They provide him with an opportunity to buy wisely when prices fall sharply and to sell wisely when they advance a great deal."

— Michael Mauboussin (@mjmauboussin) March 8, 2020

More investors should have a slide like this in their decks: Reasons not to invest. pic.twitter.com/tcnRPiSzqo

— Marc Rubinstein (@MarcRuby) March 2, 2020

In case anyone has been hunting around for “Common Stocks as Long Term Investments” after Buffett name dropped it in his letter this weekend. https://t.co/UTjqWW32Pj

— Scuttlebutt Investor (@Scuttlebutt_Inv) February 24, 2020

On investment ideas, the only thing that matters is the quality of the idea, not the novelty. In many areas of life, there is a direct link between originality and quality, but in investing, the two have a random relationship.

— John Huber (@JohnHuber72) February 19, 2020

Here are my slides from my presentation at @manualofideas Ideaweek 2020. You'll have to use your imagination to fill in the spaces covered w/ the talk as opposed to the visuals, but at least it gives a sense of where I'm coming from: https://t.co/Q0TrRVTKlh

— Elliot Turner (@ElliotTurn) February 13, 2020

We started blogging back in 2016, but we had no readers! So here's a post from the past in which we explained why we rarely call ourselves value investors and why we value stocks based on what we would pay if we could never sell them. https://t.co/795Y1P7tNU

— Ensemble Capital (@IntrinsicInv) January 30, 2020

Going back in the archives this morning with @mjmauboussin

Link to Ruminations on Risk https://t.co/rsmca2NaK3 pic.twitter.com/l6f8mXFhOZ

— Sean DeLaney (@SeanDeLaney23) January 27, 2020

Justin Wheeler, CEO of Berkadia, shares his story Utah State University's Jon M. Huntsman School of Business. https://t.co/OEYxIiq7qh

— Michael Billings (@mabtito) January 15, 2020

Short profile of the Mendelson family (Heico) in Forbes: $HEI https://t.co/F3Z9nUoglL

— Liberty (@LibertyRPF) January 14, 2020

[New Post] Today we explain why it is impossible for investors to be "macro agnostic". “My interest is in the future because I am going to spend the rest of my life there. ” -C.F. Kettering https://t.co/tL7MjC9JxW

— Ensemble Capital (@IntrinsicInv) January 10, 2020

This is really good. When you're trying to do something new and it's not working, you don't know whether that's because it's impossible, or you just got some minor detail wrong. https://t.co/d1geyzSt17

— Paul Graham (@paulg) January 11, 2020

Reading one 10-K a day will change your investment life.

This simple habit has tremendous compounding effects.

Don't know where to start? Enter @AswathDamodaran

He created an entire YouTube video on how to read an annual report: https://t.co/6KF4atXwVF

— Brandon Beylo (@marketplunger1) January 8, 2020

Excellent and useful consolidation of the resources in our mega thread on industry news sources. Thanks @quadrantinvestr! https://t.co/vMFIUpAKBZ

— Ensemble Capital (@IntrinsicInv) January 8, 2020

What better way to start the new decade than by re-reading The Life Handbook by Epictetus.

It‘s available for free on LibriVox:https://t.co/IGrP1gaRpM

It‘s also on Scribd (here‘s two free months with my refer-a-friend link https://t.co/alkVURaY9U):https://t.co/Nps1YWDcx3 pic.twitter.com/xWyr0jblJi

— Remo Uherek (@remouherek) January 1, 2020

Our most-read posts from 2019:

#1) How Many Stocks Should You Own in Your Portfolio?https://t.co/XTDT6DLFqf

— Ensemble Capital (@IntrinsicInv) December 31, 2019

This is such great advice from Munger when it comes to portfolio management. Everyone's trying to be smarter, search deeper, and solve the most complex problems, which makes those areas very competitive places to play. Just avoiding difficult things is so simple, but not easy pic.twitter.com/kRFkn0kiOV

— John Huber (@JohnHuber72) December 18, 2019

Great article, "How to Value a Company by Analyzing Its Customers," by @d_mccar and @faderp in the new @HarvardBiz. We have to go back to basic unit economics, which is especially important for companies that expense their investments.https://t.co/47I4muUffp

— Michael Mauboussin (@mjmauboussin) December 18, 2019

It is remarkable to see the degree to which Ben Graham used current examples to teach. From "Current Problems in Security Analysis presented by Benjamin Graham at the New York Institute of Finance from September 1946 to February 1947." https://t.co/3guguHhGm1

— Michael Mauboussin (@mjmauboussin) December 17, 2019

My conversation with the incomparable @jim_rutt is up. He preceded me as chair of the board @sfiscience. There’s never a boring discussion with him! https://t.co/1wnlmnUznq

— Michael Mauboussin (@mjmauboussin) December 2, 2019

Read this piece by @jasonzweigwsj on his overconfidence in college, it's wonderful. https://t.co/00pYZWh58t

— Morgan Housel (@morganhousel) December 2, 2019

A case study of Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger's investment in and management of Blue Chip Stamps, courtesy of @maxolson. https://t.co/OFVFnFMxvA

— Shai Dardashti (@ShaiDardashti) November 29, 2019

Hanlon’s Razor:

“Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.”

I find a slightly adapted version to be just as useful in daily life:

“Never attribute to negative intentions that which can be explained by busyness.”

— James Clear (@JamesClear) November 17, 2019

One of the best books I've read in awhile. Not about finance (not directly anyway) but great brain food. Makes you think. Thanks @DavidDeutschOxf for writing it:
"The Beginning of Infinity: Explanations That Transform the World" https://t.co/h4V3v0uH1m via @amazon

— Chris Mayer (@chriswmayer) November 13, 2019

MOI Global’s Meet-the-Author Summer Forum 2019 Interview https://t.co/HtmYW6TMTa #valueinvesting #buffett #munger #pabrai

— Oyemoney (@Oye_money) September 12, 2019

Thanks @mjmauboussin for the timeless Expectations Investing, one of my all-time favorites among investing books. Covering most of what an investor need to know. Find my review @Investbythebook https://t.co/KCyZ0roDbu

— Niklas Sävås (@NiklasSavas) October 13, 2019

. @RobertIger ‘s book is a good read. Intuition overlaps with data, Hollywood overlaps with Silicon Valley, and the professional overlaps with the personal. https://t.co/r9ecpogCio

— Saurabh Madaan (@saurabh_madaan) October 5, 2019

My philosophy of writing:

• Write every day.

• Write in public to improve the quality of your thinking.

• Write for clarity, not to impress people.

• Write about your curiosities. You don’t need to be an expert.

• Write for the most intelligent person you know.

— ᴅᴀᴠɪᴅ ᴘᴇʀᴇʟʟ ✌ (@david_perell) October 4, 2019

Recently, I have been thinking a lot about the relationship between public and private markets over the past 50 years. Found this book very useful, and it flew under my radar until recently:https://t.co/U82yRMKvfC

— Michael Mauboussin (@mjmauboussin) September 19, 2019