Phil Ordway presented his in-depth investment theses on Armstrong (NYSE: AWI) and USG (NYSE: USG) at Best Ideas 2016.
Opportunities in Building Products: Armstrong and USG operate within a profitable niche market for ceiling products, and both are interesting companies. They have ~50% and ~30% market share, respectively, in a very stable, high-ROIC business with exemplary pricing power and relatively little competition. Using AWI’s numbers, volumes are still well below their 2005/06 peak and their plants are running at ~70% utilization, but they’ve been able to raise prices consistently and revenues and margins are considerably higher compared to the prior cyclical peak. This cycle may be a little different — namely, it has been much slower to recover than many expected, and we may not attain those 2005/06 levels anytime soon — but therein lies the potential opportunity, as some investors may have lost patience. AWI is also undergoing a period of significant change. Its smaller, less profitable flooring segment is likely to be spun off in 2016, and the remaining ceilings business will then be under the full control of a new CEO (who is the current president of that division and has achieved good results).
About the instructor:
Philip Ordway is Principal and Portfolio Manager of Anabatic Fund, L.P. Previously, Philip was a partner at Chicago Fundamental Investment Partners (CFIP). At CFIP, which he joined in 2007, Philip was responsible for investments across the capital structure in various industries. Prior to joining Chicago Fundamental Investment Partners, Philip was an analyst in structured corporate finance with Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. from 2002 to 2005, where he was part of a team responsible for identifying financing solutions for companies initially in the global power and utilities group and ultimately in the global autos and industrials group. Philip earned his M.B.A. from the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University in 2007 and his B.S. in Education & Social Policy and Economics from Northwestern University in 2002.
Members, log in below to access the full session.
Not a member?
Thank you for your interest. Please note that MOI Global is closed to new members at this time. If you would like to join the waiting list, complete the following form:
About The Author: MOI Global Editorial Team
The MOI Global Editorial Team, led by John Mihaljevic, CFA, includes community builders, event organizers, writers, editors, research associates, security analysts, and fanatical member support advocates. Our sole purpose is to serve the members of MOI Global as well as we possibly can in order to help them learn, invest intelligently, and build lifelong friendships with like-minded people.
Who is MOI Global? In recent years, The Manual of Ideas has expanded to become more than simply “the very best investing newsletter on the planet” (Mohnish Pabrai). We are now a thriving global community of intelligent investors, connected through great ideas, thought-provoking interviews, online conferences, live member events, and much more.
Members of MOI Global enjoy complimentary access to a growing array of resources and content related to the art of intelligent investing. Members also enjoy preferential access to selected offline events as well as exclusive access to other events hosted by MOI Global, including the Zurich Project Summit, the Latticework Conference, and Ideaweek.
More posts by MOI Global Editorial Team