Sisecam: Global Glass Producer With Improving Fundamentals

January 21, 2021 in Audio, Best Ideas 2021, Best Ideas 2021 Featured, Diary, Equities, Ideas

Mesut Ellialtioglu of Talas Turkey Value Fund presented his investment thesis on Turkiye Sise ve Cam Fabrikalari A.S. (Sisecam) (Turkey: SISE) at Best Ideas 2021.

Thesis summary:

Sisecam is a leading integrated glass manufacturer in Turkey and the EMEA region. It is also one of the top ten global glass conglomerates, with a market capitalization of $3 billion.

The company completed a merger with its listed subsidiaries in the second half of 2020 following a delisting of the subsidiaries, including SODA Sanayii, Trakya Cam, and Anadolu Cam. Sisecam operating as a single entity should result in cost savings, leading to improvement in operating margins in 2021 and beyond.

Mesut expects Sisecam to deliver revenue growth of 35% in 2021, helped by a cyclical recovery in flat glass and glassware volumes, pricing increases across its markets, and a favorable translation effect of a higher EUR/TRY exchange rate.

The company is valued at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.5x, based on average  estimated EBITDA in 2021-22. Mesut sees 65% share price upside potential over the next twelve months.

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About the instructor:

Mesut Ellialtioglu, the Fund’s Turkey Investment Officer, has 23 years of Turkey focused equity research and fund management experience and focuses on value investing opportunities in the Turkish equity market. Prior to forming Talas Capital with Mr. Matthew Peterson, Mr. Ellialtioglu worked with Bankers Trust Company as an associate, Korfez Securities (Garanti Bank) as Co-Head of Research, UB Ulusal Securities (formerly SAMBA Saudi American Bank) as Managing Director for research and asset management, Kent Securities as Head of Asset Management, and ABN AMRO Asset Management Turkey as Chief Investment Officer. Mr. Ellialtioglu graduated with BS in Economics degree from the Wharton School of Business of the University of Pennsylvania in 1993.

The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Salesforce.com: Defensible Market Dominance, Profitable Growth

January 21, 2021 in Audio, Best Ideas 2021, Best Ideas 2021 Featured, Diary, Equities, Ideas

Omri Velvart of Legacy Value Partners presented his in-depth investment thesis on Salesforce.com (US: CRM) at Best Ideas 2021.

Thesis summary:

Salesforce.com has a one-of-a-kind, wide-moat position in the enterprise software and software-as-a-service (SaaS) market segments.

Management has a superb track record of redeploying capital into business opportunities and has managed to widen the moat and the total addressable market size substantially over the past decade. The company has executed well in terms of mergers and acquisitions (resources, data, expertise), and its $30+ billion spending spree since 2016 is showing positive results.

Omri believes that market participants still underappreciate the company’s market dominance and prospects for profitable growth.

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About the instructor:

Omri Velvart is the Founder and Chief Investments Officer of Legacy Value Partners, a Tel Aviv based Hedge Fund. LVP invests in a concentrated portfolio of great businesses that possess an almost impossible to replicate Footprint, strong management teams, a Wide Moat that keeps on widening and a strong financial position.The fund elevates strong ties and expertise in the Israeli Tech Ecosystem, Global and Local Software and Services Niche Winners and Digital Media.”

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Repsol: Diversified Energy Company Transitioning to New Technologies

January 21, 2021 in Audio, Best Ideas 2021, Best Ideas 2021 Featured, Diary, Equities, Ideas

Javier Echevarria of Invexcel Patrimonio presented his in-depth investment thesis on Repsol (Spain: REP) at Best Ideas 2021.

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About the instructor:

Javier Echevarria serves as Chief Investment Officer of Invexcel Patrimonio. He has specialized in Equity Investments and Wealth Management since 2007. He worked in Bestinver’s sales team from 2007-2009. He coordinated the Anatha charity project in Cambodia in 2009. He joined Excel Corporación as Markets Analyst in 2009 and Invexcel Patrimonio in 2010. He holds a Degree in Law from the Universidad Complutense de Madrid and a Master’s Degree in Stocks and Financial Markets from Instituto de Estudios Bursátiles.

The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Naked Wines: Subscription-Based Business With Strong Unit Economics

January 21, 2021 in Audio, Best Ideas 2021, Best Ideas 2021 Featured, Diary, Equities, Ideas

Elliot Turner of RGA Investment Advisors presented his in-depth investment thesis on Naked Wines (UK: WINE) at Best Ideas 2021.

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About the instructor:

Elliot Turner is a co-founder and Managing Partner, CIO at RGA Investment Advisors, LLC. RGA Investment Advisors runs a long-term, low turnover, growth at a reasonable price investment strategy seeking out global opportunities. Elliot focuses on discovering and analyzing long-term, high quality investment opportunities and strategic portfolio management. Prior to joining RGA, Elliot managed portfolios at at AustinWeston Asset Management LLC, Chimera Securities and T3 Capital. Elliot holds the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation as well as a Juris Doctor from Brooklyn Law School.. He also holds a Bachelor of Arts degree from Emory University where he double majored in Political Science and Philosophy.

The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

FlatexDEGIRO: Combined Firm Among Fastest-Growing Online Brokers

January 20, 2021 in Audio, Best Ideas 2021, Equities, Ideas

Value investor Paolo Cipriani presented his in-depth investment thesis on FlatexDEGIRO (Germany: FTK) at Best Ideas 2021.

Thesis summary:

FlatexDEGIRO operates one of the leading and fastest-growing online brokerage businesses in Europe, executing 60+ million paperless securities transactions annually. The Flatex and DEGIRO brands service more than one million B2C customers. The company offers a wide range of independent products at competitive pricing, based on in-house, state-of-the-art technology.

With Flatex’s acquisition of DEGIRO in July 2020, the combined company became one of the largest online brokers in Europe, with more than 1.2 million customers and an estimated 70 million securities transactions in 2020.

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About the instructor:

Paolo Cipriani is an investor with nine years of investment experience. He holds a master’s degree in Accounting from Florence University. Since 2017 he has a track record running a long-only equity portfolio with a focus on Europe, USA and UK. His investment strategy is based on a selection of high-quality businesses led by entrepreneurial business leaders. His expertise extends on sub-sectors with growth potential such as software vendors, IT resellers, publishers, system integrators, cybersecurity, digital communication, digital payments, diagnostic, electricity and renewable energy.

The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

AES: Transforming Toward Renewable Energy, With Fluence IPO on Horizon

January 20, 2021 in Audio, Best Ideas 2021, Best Ideas 2021 Featured, Diary, Equities, Ideas

Alex Gates of Clayton Partners presented his in-depth investment thesis on The AES Corporation (US: AES) at Best Ideas 2021.

Thesis summary:

AES is one of the largest electricity generation and utility companies in the world and is transforming into a market-leading renewable energy developer. With 7 GW of renewable backlog, the company should grow earnings 7-9% through 2022, well ahead of its peers in the utility indices. Despite this outsized growth, the company trades at 16x next year’s consensus earnings, as compared to 20x for the utility index and more than 30x for the closest peer, NextEra (US: NEE).

Led by an outstanding CEO and an aligned board, the company is moving away from coal and into solar/wind/storage at an aggressive pace.

As a free call option, AES is a 50% owner of Fluence, the largest battery storage provider in the world by GW deployed and awarded. After recently receiving a growth investment that valued Fluence at $1+ billion, AES appears poised to take Fluence public in 2022 or sooner. A Fluence IPO could add $7-10 per share share of value to AES based on peer multiples.  Additional technology investments and an innovative partnership with Google could add another $3 per share.

Alex sees a $37 stock price for AES in 2022 (~35% upside), based on average utility multiples and an IPO of Fluence. However, given the pace of growth relative to NextEra, the best way to value AES may be using NEE’s earnings multiple, which would imply a price of $58+ per share (100+% upside).

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About the instructor:

Alex Gates is the Director of Research and Chief Compliance Officer at Clayton Partners LLC. Founded in 2003, Clayton Partners is an opportunistic value investment firm. Clayton manages a private investment partnership and individual separate accounts. We take a private equity approach to investing in the public markets and look to align ourselves with shareholder friendly management teams that focus on long-term value creation. Alex leads our effort to find compelling public and private investment opportunities in sustainable businesses which have a positive impact on climate change. The current focus is on investments in renewable energy, bio-fuels, recycling and water infrastructure. He holds a Masters Degree in Business Economics from the University of California at Santa Barbara. Prior to his graduate education, he completed a dual major BS in Economics and Statistics from Cal Poly State University. At both institutions, Alex concentrated in finance and economic modeling. He earned the Chartered Financial Analyst designation in 2015.

The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Haidilao: Chinese Restaurant Chain With Unique Culture, Long Runway

January 20, 2021 in Audio, Best Ideas 2021, Diary, Equities, Ideas

Ser Jing Chong of Galilee Investment Management presented his in-depth investment thesis on Haidilao (Hong Kong: 6862) at Best Ideas 2021.

Thesis summary:

Haidilao runs a namesake chain of mid- to high-end hotpot restaurants. As of mid-year 2020, the company had 868 restaurants in China and 67 in other places, including Australia, Singapore, Taiwan, the UK, and the U.S. What differentiates Haidilao from competitors are the company’s incredible service standards. For example, many Haidilao restaurants are equipped with a seated waiting area, with free board games, fruit, snacks, and tea or other beverages.

The company was founded in 1994 with the meagre personal savings of RMB 8,000 by the now-husband and wife teams of Zhang Yong and Shu Ping as well as Shi Yong Hong and Li Haiyan. Today, Haidilao is a business with RMB 25 billion in global revenue. It grew the top and bottom line at 50+% and 40+%, respectively, in 2019. Over the four years from 2015 to 2019, Haidilao’s revenue and profit compounded at annual rates of 47% and 55%, respectively.

Zhang Yong has led Haidilao since its founding. He has an unusual way of managing the company, stemming from his unique worldview and characterized by extreme trust and compassion toward others. Examples of Haidilao’s unusual methods include (1) evaluating restaurant managers primarily on customer satisfaction, (2) giving restaurant staff a high level of autonomy to provide better service, and (3) allowing restaurant managers to share in the profits of the restaurants they directly manage and an even larger share of the profits from restaurants managed by their first- and second-generation mentees. It appears likely that Haidilao will remain one step ahead of the competition when it comes to delighting customers with excellent and innovative service standards.

With the Chinese cuisine market in China amounting to RMB 3.2 trillion in 2017, there is plenty of market share for Haidilao to gobble up, despite the fact that it is already the largest Chinese cuisine restaurant operator in the country.

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About the instructor:

Ser Jing Chong graduated in 2012 from the National University of Singapore’s Engineering Science Programme. From January 2013 to October 2019, Ser Jing served in The Motley Fool Singapore as a writer as well as a co-leader of the investing team. One of his career highlights with Fool Singapore was to help its flagship investment newsletter, Stock Advisor Gold, outperform a global stock market benchmark by nearly 2x over a 3.5 year period. In mid-2020, he co-founded and launched Compounder Fund, a long-term focused global equities investment fund.

The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Sprouts: Specialty Grocer With Solid Execution and Capital Allocation

January 20, 2021 in Audio, Best Ideas 2021, Best Ideas 2021 Featured, Diary, Equities, Ideas

Jeff Sutton of ValueTree Investments presented his in-depth investment thesis on Sprouts Farmers Market (US: SFM) at Best Ideas 2021.

Thesis summary:

Sprouts operates 360 specialty grocery stores in 23 states, spanning the entire southern half of the U.S. from California to Virginia and Pennsylvania. The company focuses on the healthy living segment and provides consumers a unique assortment of fresh, natural, and organic food products, including plant-based, gluten free, keto-friendly, and grass-fed items.

As a testament to the secular growth that is behind the healthy living segment of the economy, over the last fifteen years, the market share of traditional grocers has declined from ~73% in 2005 to ~63% in 2018. Presumably, this decline in market share by behemoths such as Kroger, Albertsons, and Walmart, has been replaced by the growing market share of specialty grocery stores such as Whole Foods (WFM), The Fresh Market (TFM), and Sprouts (SFM).

Sprouts has experienced tremendous growth of its store footprint, revenue, and free cash flow over the last ten years, at annualized rates of 15%, 21%, and 32%, respectively. Perhaps even more astounding, such growth rates have not been achieved at the expense of the company’s unit economics, profitability, or shareholder value. For example, the average revenue and gross profit per Sprouts grocery store has maintained a nearly constant level over the last ten years. The company’s average cash flow per store and its average cash flow per share have both grown at rates of 6% and 24% annually over the same time period. The growth rate in per-share economics has been accomplished partially due to a dedicated return of capital to shareholders, in the form of nearly $1 billion of share buybacks since the end of 2015.

In spite of the underlying fundamental performance Sprouts has demonstrated over the last ten years, the stock price has declined by almost 50% since the IPO in 2013, trading at ~$20 per share at yearend 2020. Although such stock price performance is not dissimilar from its peers, WFM and TFM from 2013 through 2017, astute analysts should notice that Sprouts appears to have outperformed both WFM and TFM across almost all profitability and valuation metrics.

Yet at the same time, both competitors were acquired at high valuations compared to Sprouts’ recent market valuation. For example, WFM and TFM were acquired at valuations of ~27x FCF, compared to SFM’s recent quotation of ~8x FCF. If Sprouts were to be priced according to the valuation metrics that applied to the acquisitions of Whole Foods and The Fresh Market, SFM could be worth $60-80 per share, or roughly 200-300% above the recent stock price.

Regardless of whether Sprouts may or may not be acquired, Jeff believes the company’s continued execution of its business plan could lead to ~50% upside potential in the next few years. Sprouts has announced a commitment to grow the store base by ~10% annually for the foreseeable future. Such a growth rate could double the company’s size in seven years, and improved unit economics could lead to stock price appreciation sooner, even if SFM was valued using the same metrics at which it traded recently (~9.5x P/E, ~7.7x FCF).

Jeff believes a company’s intrinsic value is driven by a growing stream of FCF that accrues to shareholders. As such, SFM generates ~$2.60 per share in FCF. Pricing SFM at a 6% FCF yield, implies a stock price of ~$44 per share.

Jeff estimates that Sprouts generates what he refers to as “normalized maintenance FCF” of ~$3.70 per share. This estimate represents the amount of FCF Jeff believes a company could generate without re-investing into new growth initiatives. Capitalized at an 8% yield, Jeff estimates Sprouts could be worth ~$47 per share, based on his estimate of normalized maintenance FCF.

Looking out several years, SFM could be worth as much as $48 per share as a result of continued execution on the company’s business plan.

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About the instructor:

Jeff Sutton has over 18 years of investment experience, and has been a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) charterholder for over 14 years. Prior to founding ValueTree, he worked as an equity analyst for a long-short hedge fund, as a project manager at a $1 billion family office, and as an associate at a Southeastern private equity firm. Academically, Mr. Sutton graduated summa cum laude and Phi Beta Kappa from Rhodes College with two B.A. degrees, with majors in International Business and French. He has served as a member of the Rhodes College Alumni Executive Board. He has also earned a Master of Business Administration (MBA) degree from the Darden Graduate School of Business Administration at the University of Virginia, where he was the Senior Portfolio Manager of the Darden Fund.

The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

ECN Capital: Transformed, High-Quality Business With Growth Runway

January 20, 2021 in Audio, Best Ideas 2021, Best Ideas 2021 Featured, Diary, Equities, Ideas

Chris Colvin of Breach Inlet Capital presented his in-depth investment thesis on ECN Capital (Canada: ECN) at Best Ideas 2021.

Thesis summary:

ECN Capital is a great company trading at an attractive valuation, likely due to being underfollowed. Chris gained conviction on his thesis while attending ECN’s 2020 Investor Day. As the latter was not transcribed or webcast, Chris may have a better appreciation of ECN than investors who did not attend the meeting.

ECN was formed through a separation from Element Fleet in Q4 2016. At the time, ECN provided rail and aviation equipment financing, which has limited barriers to entry, slow growth, and high capital intensity. In 2017 and 2018, ECN transformed and high-graded its portfolio by (1) divesting those legacy assets and (2) acquiring three business service providers with significant barriers to entry, high growth, and low capital intensity.

Today, ECN owns an originator and servicer of home improvement loans (Service Finance), an originator and servicer of manufactured housing loans (Triad Financial), and an advisor and manager of credit card portfolios (Kessler Group). These businesses benefit from recurring income, long runways to grow, and difficult to replicate business models. ECN expects the three businesses to drive overall EPS 50+% higher in 2021 as COVID has accelerated growth.

Despite the growth trajectory, wide moat, and an experienced and properly incentivized leadership team, ECN shares recently traded for only ~15x 2020 EPS and ~10x 2021E EPS guidance, as compared to slower-growth peers at ~25 2020 EPS and ~20x 2021E EPS. Furthermore, Chris believes that ECN may raise 2021 guidance at its 2021 Investor Day in February.

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About the instructor:

Chris Colvin, CFA, is the Founder of Breach Inlet Capital. Prior to Breach Inlet, he was the Portfolio Manager at Freeman Group (a family office), where he launched and managed a concentrated public markets portfolio. He also led diligence and was a board member for private equity investments. Before Freeman, he was a Senior Analyst at Highland Capital Management, where he managed a portfolio of distressed credits and a long/short equity fund. He began his career as an investment banking analyst at Stephens, where he also helped evaluate private equity investments. He graduated from Wake Forest University with a BS in Business.

The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Ep. 25: How Smaller Companies Beat Giants | Research: How to Detect BS

January 20, 2021 in Audio, Diary, Equities, Interviews, Podcast, This Week in Intelligent Investing

It’s a pleasure to share with you Season 1 Episode 25 of This Week in Intelligent Investing, featuring Phil Ordway of Anabatic Investment Partners, based in Chicago, Illinois; Elliot Turner of RGA Investment Advisors, based in Stamford, Connecticut; and your host, John Mihaljevic, chairman of MOI Global.

Enjoy the conversation!

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In this episode, John Mihaljevic hosts a discussion of:

How smaller companies can beat giant corporations: Elliot Turner argues that singular focus around a core essence allows smaller companies to compete successfully against much larger competitors. Examples include Roku vs. Google/Amazon, Grubhub vs. Uber, and Dropbox vs. Google/Microsoft.

How to detect “BS” in company communications: Phil Ordway talks about “baloney” detection, or how not to be swayed by communications intended to sugarcoat, obfuscate or deceive investors. We discuss questionable practices and communication methods employed by some companies.

Related links (h/t Phil Ordway):

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If you missed any past episodes, you can listen to them here.

About the Podcast Co-Hosts

Philip Ordway is Managing Principal and Portfolio Manager of Anabatic Fund, L.P. Previously, Philip was a partner at Chicago Fundamental Investment Partners (CFIP). At CFIP, which he joined in 2007, Philip was responsible for investments across the capital structure in various industries. Prior to joining CFIP, Philip was an analyst in structured corporate finance with Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. from 2002 to 2005. Philip earned his B.S. in Education & Social Policy and Economics from Northwestern University in 2002 and his M.B.A. from the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University in 2007, where he now serves as an Adjunct Professor in the Finance Department.

Elliot Turner is a co-founder and Managing Partner, CIO at RGA Investment Advisors, LLC. RGA Investment Advisors runs a long-term, low turnover, growth at a reasonable price investment strategy seeking out global opportunities. Elliot focuses on discovering and analyzing long-term, high quality investment opportunities and strategic portfolio management. Prior to joining RGA, Elliot managed portfolios at at AustinWeston Asset Management LLC, Chimera Securities and T3 Capital. Elliot holds the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation as well as a Juris Doctor from Brooklyn Law School.. He also holds a Bachelor of Arts degree from Emory University where he double majored in Political Science and Philosophy.

John Mihaljevic leads MOI Global and serves as managing editor of The Manual of Ideas. He managed a private partnership, Mihaljevic Partners LP, from 2005-2016. John is a winner of the Value Investors Club’s prize for best investment idea. He is a trained capital allocator, having studied under Yale University Chief Investment Officer David Swensen and served as Research Assistant to Nobel Laureate James Tobin. John holds a BA in Economics, summa cum laude, from Yale and is a CFA charterholder.

The content of this podcast is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this podcast. The podcast participants and their affiliates may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated on this podcast.