Quarterly Snapshot of Superinvestor Portfolio Activity

August 21, 2019 in Equities, Portfolio Management, The Manual of Ideas

We are pleased to bring you our quarterly analysis of the just-filed 13F-HR portfolio holdings of the superinvestors we track.

“Signal Value” as Opposed to “Noise”

We present the holdings of 100+ of the world’s best investors. We typically look for investors who have amassed impressive track records and manage a fairly concentrated portfolio. We choose these investors carefully to avoid the noise inherent in most 13F-HR filings.

The following analysis is based on Forms 13F-HR (institutional holdings report) filed with the SEC for the most recent quarter.

MOI Signal Rank answers the question, “What are this investor’s top ten ideas now?” Rather than simply presenting each investor’s largest holdings, our methodology ranks the portfolio holdings based on an investor’s current level of conviction in each holding, as judged by The Manual of Ideas.

Our proprietary methodology takes into account a number of variables, including the size of a position in an investor’s portfolio, the size of a position relative to the market value of the corresponding company, the most recent quarterly change in the number of shares owned, and the change in the stock price of a position since the most recent quarterly filing date.

For example, an investor might have the most conviction in a position that is only the tenth-largest position in such investor’s portfolio. This might be the case if a fund invests in a small company, resulting in a holding that is simply too small to rank highly based on size. Such a holding might amount to 19.9% of the shares outstanding of the subject company, suggesting a high level of conviction. Our estimate of the conviction level would rise further if the company had a 20% poison-pill threshold, thereby suggesting that the investor had bought as much of the equity as is practically feasible.


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Danielle Stein-Fairhurst on Using Excel for Business and Financial Modelling

August 21, 2019 in Audio, Interviews, Meet-the-Author Summer Forum, Meet-the-Author Summer Forum 2019, Meet-the-Author Summer Forum 2019 Featured, Skills, Tools

Danielle Stein-Fairhurst discussed her book, Using Excel for Business and Financial Modelling: A Practical Guide, at MOI Global’s Meet-the-Author Summer Forum 2019. Danielle serves as principal of Plum Solutions.

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About the book:

First published in 2012, Using Excel for Business and Financial Modelling contains step-by-step instructions of how to solve common business problems using financial models, including downloadable Excel templates, a list of shortcuts and tons of practical tips and techniques you can apply straight away.

Whilst there are many hundreds of tools, features and functions in Excel, this book focuses on the topics most relevant to finance professionals. It covers these features in detail from a practical perspective, but also puts them in context by applying them to practical examples in the real world. Learn to create financial models to help make business decisions whilst applying modelling best practice methodology, tools and techniques.

  • Provides the perfect mix of practice and theory
  • Helps you become a DIY Excel modelling specialist
  • Includes updates for Excel 2019/365 and Excel for Mac
  • May be used as an accompaniment to the author’s online and face-to-face training courses

Many people are often overwhelmed by the hundreds of tools in Excel, and this book gives clarity to the ones you need to know in order to perform your job more efficiently. This book also demystifies the technical, design, logic and financial skills you need for business and financial modelling.

About the author:

Danielle Stein Fairhurst is the Principal of Plum Solutions, a Sydney-based consultancy specialising in financial modelling and analysis. She is the author of Financial Modeling in Excel for Dummies, published by Wiley in 2017, and Using Excel for Business and Financial Modelling, Third Edition, published by Wiley Finance 2019. With over fourteen years’ experience as a financial analyst, she helps her clients create meaningful financial models in the form of business cases, pricing models and management reports. She has hands-on experience in a number of industry sectors, including telecoms, information systems, manufacturing and financial services.

Danielle has regular engagements around Australia and globally as a speaker, course facilitator, financial modelling consultant and analyst, was a guest on Excel TV and has been interviewed for several industry podcasts. She is on the judging panel for the 2019 Financial Modelling Innovation Awards and is on the Diversity Council for the ModelOff Financial Modeling World Championships. She founded the Financial Modellers’ Meetup groups which now has over 5,000 members in seven countries as well as a LinkedIn forum with over 45,000 members. She holds a Master of Business Administration (MBA) from Macquarie Graduate School of Management (MGSM), and has taught management accounting subjects at Sydney University.

“Lo más importante es encontrar un equipo excepcional”

August 21, 2019 in Entrevistas exclusivas, MOI Global en Español

Entrevistamos a Miguel López, quien cubre el sector Fintech como asociado en Antoni & Lelo de Larrea Venture Partners (ALLVP), firma líder de Venture Capital en México. Previamente estuvo como analista de renta variable en UBS, tanto en EE.UU. como en México. Cuenta con una Maestría en finanzas y una licenciatura en contaduría.

En la entrevista, Miguel nos platica un poco sobre la importancia de un equipo emprendedor en las inversiones VC; así como algunas startups latinoamericanas interesantes.

MOI Global: Como una firma de VC, ¿qué características buscan en las empresas con las que se asocian?

Miguel López: Una empresa con un servicio más rápido, barato o conveniente que la oferta actual en un mercado grande dentro de nuestro circulo de competencia es importante; sin embargo, nunca va a ser exitosa por sí sola. Por ello, lo más importante es encontrar un equipo excepcional: los mejores emprendedores son capaces de desarrollar productos de manera constante e incluso de crear demanda en nuevos mercados.

Un equipo competente, con capacidad de adaptarse y generalmente con experiencia previa, es fundamental para el éxito de una startup. Uber [UBER] y Airbnb no eran servicios obvios que iban a triunfar, pero equipos geniales lo hicieron posible. El tamaño del mercado y las dinámicas de este son importantes ya que no puedes aspirar a vender miles de millones si estás dentro de un nicho o de un mercado muy competitivo.

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Scott Page on His Book, The Model Thinker

August 20, 2019 in Audio, Interviews, Meet-the-Author Summer Forum, Meet-the-Author Summer Forum 2019, Meet-the-Author Summer Forum 2019 Featured

Scott Page discussed his book, The Model Thinker: What You Need to Know to Make Data Work for You, at MOI Global’s Meet-the-Author Summer Forum 2019. Scott is a Professor of Complex Systems, Political Science, and Economics at the University of Michigan at Ann Arbor.

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About the book:

From the stock market to genomics laboratories, census figures to marketing email blasts, we are awash with data. But as anyone who has ever opened up a spreadsheet packed with seemingly infinite lines of data knows, numbers aren’t enough: we need to know how to make those numbers talk. In The Model Thinker, social scientist Scott E. Page shows us the mathematical, statistical, and computational models–from linear regression to random walks and far beyond–that can turn anyone into a genius. At the core of the book is Page’s “many-model paradigm,” which shows the reader how to apply multiple models to organize the data, leading to wiser choices, more accurate predictions, and more robust designs. The Model Thinker provides a toolkit for business people, students, scientists, pollsters, and bloggers to make them better, clearer thinkers, able to leverage data and information to their advantage.

About the author:

Scott Page is the Leonid Hurwicz Collegiate Professor of Complex Systems, Political Science, and Economics at the University of Michigan. In 2011, he was elected to the American Academy of Arts and Sciences.

His research focuses on the myriad roles that diversity plays in complex systems. For example, how does diversity arise? Does diversity make a system more productive? How does diversity impact robustness? Does it make a system prone to large events?

Scott has written five books: “The Model Thinker – What you need to know to make data work for you” – stresses the application of ensembles of models to make sense of complex phenomena; “The Diversity [Bonus] – How Great Teams Pay Off in the Knowledge Economy” the follow up and expansion on the themes in The Difference; “The Difference”, which demonstrates the benefits and costs of diversity in social contexts, Complex Adaptive Social Systems (with John Miller), which provides an introduction to complexity theory, and, most recently, Diversity and Complexity, which explores the contributions of diversity within complex systems.

Scott has also published papers in a variety of disciplines including economics, political science, computer science, management, physics, public health, geography, urban planning, engineering, and history.

In his research, Scott has been fortunate to work with a collection of brilliant people — Lu Hong, John Miller, PJ Lamberson, Russell Golman, Kate Anderson, Ken Kollman, Evan Economo, Michael Wellman, and Jenna Bednar — as he tries to make sense of these questions.

In addition to writing papers and books, he has also filmed a video course on complexity called Understanding Complexity.

Scott’s research on diversity provides his with many opportunities to talk with community groups, high schools, corporations, government agencies, NGOs, and university audiences.

Norb Vonnegut on His Book, The Pell Heist (and the Lessons of Fiction)

August 19, 2019 in Audio, Interviews, Meet-the-Author Summer Forum, Meet-the-Author Summer Forum 2019, Meet-the-Author Summer Forum 2019 Featured

Norb Vonnegut discussed his book, The Pell Heist, at MOI Global’s Meet-the-Author Summer Forum 2019. Norb made the case for how fiction can help us become better at investing by becoming better at evaluating people.

Norb serves as founder of Second Opinion Wealth Management.

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About the book:

Jack Legare’s the last person you’d enlist to recover five priceless paintings stolen twenty-five years ago. He can’t tell a Matisse from a Monet. He has no background in law enforcement. He’s going broke, and his inner circle thinks he’s an idiot for abandoning Wall Street to buy a money-pit marina.

But a former client knows Legare’s talents and woos him to join her quest to reclaim the missing masterpieces. He in turn recruits Helen Chan, a beautiful lawyer with a shadowy past and disregard for authority. The more they uncover, the uglier things get. Until, Jack and Helen know too much to live.

If you like underdogs who face overwhelming odds and “smart-talking characters” ensnared by “diabolically elegant business crimes,” which is how the New York Times describes Vonnegut’s thrillers… If you’re sick of waiting to find out who robbed the Isabella Stewart Gardner Museum… Read this action-packed thriller from acclaimed author, Norb Vonnegut.

About the author:

Norb Vonnegut founded Second Opinion Wealth Management to level the playing field for investors. He has been advising families and writing about wealth management for over 25 years as a partner (former) on a Morgan Stanley advisory team with over $1 billion in AUM, industry commentator published by the Wall Street Journal and CFA Institute, and NYT-acclaimed author of several financial thrillers that take the mystery out of Wall Street.