The best of Jeff Bezos' Interview (April 20, 2018) pic.twitter.com/aQot66TN6V
— Hardcore Value (@HardcoreValue) April 30, 2018
This article is excerpted from a letter by Jim Roumell, partner and portfolio manager of Roumell Asset Management, based in Chevy Chase, Maryland.
Dundee is a public Canadian independent holding company, listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol DCA and also trades in the US under the symbol DDEJF. Through its operating subsidiaries, Dundee is engaged in diverse business activities in the areas of investment advisory, corporate finance, energy, resources/commodities, agriculture, real estate and infrastructure. The Corporation also holds, directly and indirectly, a portfolio of investments mostly in these key areas, as well as other select investments in both publicly listed and private enterprises.
We first analyzed Dundee back in 2014. Ned Goodman, the founder, decided to step down and one of his sons, David Goodman, took the helm as CEO. Ned had an excellent track record for many years. However, in 2011, he took a view that there would be hyperinflation and the US dollar would devalue so he decided to invest heavily in commodity businesses (e.g., oil and gas, mining, etc.). Many of those investments have since been written-off or written-down. David, who already held a prominent role at Dundee since the ‘90s, worked to restructure Dundee into a mini-Brookfield Asset Management: create funds, contribute assets, and generate fee income. That strategy did not work out. He changed strategic direction to cull and derisk the investment portfolio. In January 2018, David began a medical leave of absence. His brother, Jonathan Goodman, was appointed Executive Chairman. Jonathan was also involved with Dundee since the ’90s, but left four years ago, before returning. Jonathan is currently reviewing the entire portfolio and will continue to derisk the portfolio through his lens.
In 2014, Dundee’s reported Net Asset Value (NAV) was about $29 (all figures in this section will be quoted in Canadian dollars). As of December 31, 2017, the reported NAV was $10.36. We view the valuation of Dundee as a Sum of the Parts (SOTP). Dundee has a variety of levers to pull to realize value for shareholders. In other words, it has a characteristic that RAM always looks for in its investments—multiple shots on goal. We valued a handful of investments to determine what we believe to be an extremely conservative valuation.
Of the private investments, we analyzed primarily Parq Vancouver and United Hydrocarbon. Dundee owns 41% of Parq Vancouver (Parq). Parq, which opened in 4Q17, is an entertainment destination located in downtown Vancouver featuring a state-of-the-art casino, two luxury hotels, including Vancouver’s largest hotel ballroom (for conventions), and eight restaurants and lounges. Marriott manages the flagship hotel. The company has provided EBITDA guidance of $75mm-$100mm once the facility is fully ramped up. Parq has seen month over month growth since January. Parq also has roughly $565mm in construction loans, with current interest rates of about 8% and 13%. Part of the overhang on this property will be alleviated after establishing a trend of growth that will allow Parq to refinance its debt. We are told that there are parties interested in investing in the property, which could provide Dundee with a meaningful alternative if the price is right. Applying a multiple of 10x, we arrive at a value of $126mm, a modest premium to the $111 million Dundee invested in 2016 and 2017 to build the project. Vancouver is ranked the 13th Best City in North America by Travel Magazine.
One of the poor investments made during Ned’s tenure was the purchase of an oil field in Chad, Africa through its subsidiary United Hydrocarbon, of which it is an 83% owner. Dundee spent several hundred million dollars on this asset. As part of the derisking process, last year Dundee decided to sell its interest to Delonex, which was backed by Warburg Pincus, in return for a payment of about $45mm before any escrow or holdbacks. Dundee also received a royalty that will payout starting in several years assuming Delonex is successful, as well as a $64mm payment upon finding first oil. Summing the net payments (excluding the payment upon first oil) and the estimated value of future royalties arrives at a value of about $43mm.
We also included value for private investment Blue Goose (where we assume zero value for 2016 acquisition Tender Choice, as it is currently in receivership) of $7mm and Android Industries of $24mm (company’s book value). The total of these four private investments is about $201mm.
Dundee has public investments of about $221mm, of which half is in Dundee Precious Metals, a gold mining and smelter business. Precious Metals has one mine producing nearing $400 million in annual revenue and is 60% complete on a second surface mine (expected to be in production by year-end), with an estimated all-in cost of roughly $400/oz. The company expects to generate $200 million in EBITDA when the second mine fully ramps assuming current spot gold prices versus a current enterprise value of roughly $475 million. Again, these are investments that can be sold as Dundee derisks its portfolio.
The sum of the investments we believe can be easily quantified and valued is $422mm. Subtracting net debt of $163mm gives you an NAV of $259mm, or $4.41 per share. This compares to the company’s stated NAV of $609mm, or $10.36 per share. What’s the probability that all of the additional investments, albeit more difficult to value, are worthless? This is highly unlikely and so we are getting the rest of the portfolio for free. Our average purchase price in the quarter was approximately $2.00 per share, a 55% discount to our NAV calculation. We performed various stress tests and could not bring the NAV below our purchase price.
The Goodman family owns roughly 19% of the company’s subordinate voting shares, which are the ones that are publicly-traded, and 99% of the closely-held common shares which have super-majority voting rights. Of note, the Goodman family has never sold a share. They have much at stake, not only monetarily, but also from a family reputation and legacy point of view. At the corporate level, Dundee is undergoing a process of reducing costs. In the past, we’ve spoken with David Goodman on several occasions and recently spoke with Jonathan Goodman. With all the value destruction that has occurred over the last few years, Dundee is a “show me” story. Additionally, it appears that many investors are concerned about Dundee’s liquidity when its preferred series 5 notes come due in June 2019. What may not be fully understood is that Dundee has the option to pay cash, issue common shares with a share price floor of $2.00, or a combination of the two when these preferred shares mature. It is our belief that the management team will do everything it can to ensure that it does not need to issue dilutive shares. We believe that the value of Dundee is significantly north of today’s share price and more than discounts any “hair” the investment possesses.
Disclosure: The specific securities identified and described do not represent all of the securities purchased, sold, or recommended for advisory clients, and the reader should not assume that investments in the securities identified and discussed were or will be profitable. The top three securities purchased in the quarter are based on the largest absolute dollar purchases made in the quarter.
AIN: Leader in Fragmented Pharmacy Dispensing Business in Japan
April 29, 2018 in Asia, Asian Investing Summit, Asian Investing Summit 2018, Audio, Communication Services, Consumer Staples, Equities, GARP, Health Care, Jockey Stocks, Small Cap, TranscriptsKisalaya Singh of ANYA Investment Partners presented her in-depth investment thesis on AIN Holdings (Tokyo: 9627) at Asian Investing Summit 2018.
Thesis summary:
AIN Holdings is the leader in the highly fragmented pharmacy dispensing business in Japan. Dominated by 60,000+ one-man and small-chain pharmacies, the sector appears poised for consolidation, driven by a combination of regulatory changes and ageing one-man store owners without heirs. AIN is ideally placed to be the sector consolidator with its long history of growth driven by astute organic expansion and M&A. Founder and president Kichi Otani is a disciplined capital allocator and operator who has compounded book value and earnings at 18+% annually over the past ten years, while earnings ROE of 14+%, despite a net cash balance sheet. With an equity stake of almost 9%, Otani remains invested in the continued growth of the company.
A long growth runway is available for AIN to increase revenue market share from 3% currently, by acquiring small chains and setting up more efficient large-scale pharmacies. Incremental ROI of M&A is high, driven by an ability to pay acquisition multiples as low as 5.5x EV/EBITDA and improve the operating margin of acquired businesses. Recently trading at a “fair” multiple of 8.6x EV/EBITDA, the market appears to be cognizant of AIN’s prospects for M&A growth, but not fully appreciative of recently allowed large-scale pharmacy growth. The market may also overestimate regulatory uncertainty, which injects volatility in the stock price. Primarily a revenue and earnings growth story, AIN also has the kind of high ROE, healthy cash generation, and consistent growth that have been rewarded by higher trading multiples in Japan.
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About the instructor:
Kisalaya Singh serves as managing partner of ANYA Investment Partners, a value-based investment partnership primarily focused on investment opportunities in Asian companies. Kisalaya’s previous work experience includes Segantii Capital Management, FrontPoint, The Blackstone Group, and Merrill Lynch. He holds an MBA from IIM Ahmedabad.
This article is authored by MOI Global instructor Patrick Brennan, portfolio manager of Brennan Asset Management.
Volatility returned in the first quarter as concerns about (take your pick) a global trade war, rising interest rates, selling pressure in the technology space and further turmoil in Syria were just a few of the commonly cited reasons for investor concern. Of that list, we would be most worried about the negative ramifications from further trade escalations. Of course, it is difficult to evaluate whether tweets ultimately lead to action (wouldn’t our founding fathers be proud that this is the state of US politics?!)
As scary sounding as a trade war between the world’s two largest economies is, would this be worse than say a possible breakup of the European Union? While this scenario feels highly unlikely now, our 2016 fourth quarter letter discussed how many market participants were worried about this exact scenario as the euro plunged following Brexit and investors anxiously eyed pending elections in France, Netherlands, Germany and Italy. Fears about the euro falling to parity versus the US dollar have now been replaced with fears that the currency’s strength (up ~18% since the start of 2017) may stifle growth.
Perhaps our 2019 third quarter letter will detail investor panic over the plummeting dollar and all the reverberations this has inflicted on the global economy. We do not want to belittle the damage that a possible cascading worldwide trade war could inflict, but we have little idea just how likely this scenario may be (we suspect at least some have reviewed Smoot-Hawley’s track record).
Equally problematic, even if one somehow gets the forecast correct, the prognosticator would then have to correctly anticipate the market’s reaction to such an event – getting one part right is tough enough, while nailing both is nearly impossible on a consistent basis.
This unpredictability theme rings especially true after visiting China during the first quarter of this year to look at a possible investment. As part of the due diligence process, there were discussions with a syndicate of banks which had lent money to a financially challenged company. It was immediately clear that the loans, currently marked at par value, were worth far less if more conservative accounting policies were applied. It was also clear that local government is willing to provide concessions to help raise outside capital but also wants this to be achieved without requiring loan markdowns – i.e., a “win, win” solution.
A skeptic might better characterize this as a version of wanting to go to heaven without dying. Several large, well-known banks were involved in this credit. This one tiny example multiplied across millions of Chinese loans suggests that the country’s banks are likely swimming in bad debt that is not fully reflected in bank reserves. An interesting insight, right? Time to short China’s largest banks across the board? Perhaps US investors should move completely to cash since a financial crisis in the world’s second largest economy will surely tank US markets.
While this experience was eye-opening (and we certainly will not be buyers of Chinese banks), we question the actionability. What happens if the government kicks the can down the road for 10 more years or longer (Japan extended and pretended far longer than anticipated)? If China’s financial crisis erupts in 2028, would bold action today really have been a fantastic idea?
We certainly don’t want to gloss over the real distortions in China’s economies and these imbalances could cause problems sooner than anticipated. We would simply argue that the only certainty is that there will always be macro uncertainties, and despite considerable effort, it will likely be impossible for the vast majority of investors to successfully predict outcomes, let alone their ultimate impact on markets.
Having carried on about unpredictability, we would quickly concede that broad market valuations are not particularly attractive and could become even more unattractive should interest rates continue rising. We do not own the broader indices but instead only own a small subset of stocks generally concentrated in the telecom, financial service and consumer spaces.
Several of our largest holdings have not participated in the broader market rally or have suffered large pullbacks in the past 1-3 years, trade inexpensively relative to recurring free cash flow, have meaningful insider ownership and are often actively repurchasing shares. It is frustrating that several of our names have reported neutral or outright positive news yet continue to be neglected.
So, despite higher valuations across the broader market, we see wide gaps between intrinsic value and market price in a handful of situations. While we have no way of predicting when this gap will close, we believe value continues to be created and this coiled spring will eventually be released and allow value to be unlocked.
Following the suggestions of certain readers who noted that our quarterly letters are interesting but not necessarily 5+ pages single spaced interesting (but who’s counting), we will provide a quick summary of portfolio names and actions in the next two paragraphs. Beyond that, keep reading if you are a night owl or you also happen to have a nearly four-year old who still refuses to sleep through the night (not complaining).
Leucadia (LUK) recently announced a series of transactions, including a partial sale of its stake in National Beef and increased its share repurchase program. We think the announcement is a material positive and believe that it demonstrates a commitment to narrowing the gap to its intrinsic value. Kennedy Wilson (KW) posted another strong quarter of operational results, but the stock continued to drift lower during the first quarter as the name was lumped with other REITs.
Encouragingly, the company announced a new $250 million share repurchase program and completed just under 50 percent of the program in two weeks (retiring over 4% of outstanding shares). Few 8K releases evoke “Hallelujah” responses, but the LUK/KW releases were two of them. We added to both names during the quarter. We also began purchasing shares in another financial service company that we will detail in a future letter.
While investors started warming to our media/telecom names in January, the renewed interest quickly reversed in February and March as shares reclaimed popularity levels roughly equal to Mark Zuckerberg and Cambridge Analytica. There was selling pressure in Liberty Global (LGI), Liberty Latin America (LILA), Discovery (DISCA) and this group of unloved names welcomed previously uninvited guest Charter (CHTR) to the ostracized group (we own CHTR through GLIBA and LRBRK). Investors have firmly printed the scarlet letters “cord cutting” all over these names, even though parts of their business are insulated from the risks or the share price reflects a large number of these concerns.
Interestingly, the free cash flow story at CHTR and DISCK is far better than we initially anticipated because of the tax reform legislation. We think all four names will drive substantial free cash flow per share in the years to come. Two of the names (CHTR and LGI) are currently repurchasing large amounts of stock, while the other two will likely become significant purchasers in the next 1-2 years. Higher leverage combined with rising interest rates would seem to be problematic for the group, but the companies have locked-in cheap long-term financing at levels generally below their growth rates. As we will detail, we think CHTR has a unique opportunity in the wireless space and its success could ultimately pave the way for an attractive acquisition opportunity. We are buyers of all four names.
Replay Patrick’s session on Liberty Global at Best Ideas 2018.
Disclaimer: BAM’s investment decision making process involves a number of different factors, not just those discussed in this document. The views expressed in this material are subject to ongoing evaluation and could change at any time. Past performance is not indicative of future results, which may vary. The value of investments and the income derived from investments can go down as well as up. It shall not be assumed that recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of the securities mentioned here. While BAM seeks to design a portfolio which reflects appropriate risk and return features, portfolio characteristics may deviate from those of the benchmark. Although BAM follows the same investment strategy for each advisory client with similar investment objectives and financial condition, differences in client holdings are dictated by variations in clients’ investment guidelines and risk tolerances. BAM may continue to hold a certain security in one client account while selling it for another client account when client guidelines or risk tolerances mandate a sale for a particular client. In some cases, consistent with client objectives and risk, BAM may purchase a security for one client while selling it for another. Consistent with specific client objectives and risk tolerance, clients’ trades may be executed at different times and at different prices. Each of these factors influences the overall performance of the investment strategies followed by the Firm. Nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation or offer, or recommendation to buy or sell any security, or as an offer to provide advisory services in any jurisdiction in which such solicitation or offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. The material provided herein is for informational purposes only. Before engaging BAM, prospective clients are strongly urged to perform additional due diligence, to ask additional questions of BAM as they deem appropriate, and to discuss any prospective investment with their legal and tax advisers.
Thanks to the generous support of Bob Robotti and his team at Robotti & Company, members of the MOI Global community will have a unique opportunity to meet and share ideas during the Berkshire Hathaway weekend.
Best Ideas Omaha 2018 is an idea-oriented mini-conference, to be held at the Hilton Omaha on Friday, May 4th from 2:30-6:00pm. Selected instructors will share their best investment ideas and answer questions from the assembled members.
MOI Global is curating an instructor line-up that includes highly reviewed instructors from MOI Global Online Conferences, value superinvestors, and other members of the MOI Global community.
Selected instructors:
Bob Robotti, President, Robotti & Company
Matthew Haynes, Chief Investment Officer, 1949 Value Advisors
James Lim, Senior Research Analyst, Dalton Investments
David Marcus, CEO, Evermore Global Advisors
Christopher Mayer, Investment Director, Bonner Family Office
Scott Miller, Founder, Greenhaven Road Capital
Christopher Rossbach, Managing Partner, J. Stern & Co.
Tom Russo, Managing Partner, Gardner Russo & Gardner
Emília Vieira, Chairman and CEO, Casa de Investimentos
Shreekkanth Viswanathan, Portfolio Manager, SVN Capital
Brian Weber, Senior Investment Associate, Robotti & Company
The event is sold out.
Canadian value investor Larry Sarbit, chief investment officer of Sarbit Advisory Services, based in Winnipeg, recently wrote an article for The Global and Mail, in which he reflected on market volatility and its impact on investors.
Writes Larry,
The tumultuous return of volatility in the last few weeks, accentuated by a sudden, steep drop in stock prices, comes at an interesting time for me. I have been rereading The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. As you probably have determined, the title gives a strong hint about our topic. And it has direct applicability to recent events in the market. I think we can learn a great from his perspective as it pertains to market behaviour.
Listen to our conversation with Larry about investing with an owner mindset.
This article is authored by MOI Global instructor Jim Roumell, partner and portfolio manager of Roumell Asset Management, based in Chevy Chase, Maryland.
Marty Whitman, Founder of Third Avenue Value Funds and iconoclastic value investor giant, passed away at the age of 93 on April 16, 2018. Marty’s demeanor was once aptly described as a mix of Art Carney and Marlon Brando. He was a working-class Jewish kid who grew up in the Bronx, served in the Pacific during WWII, and afterwards went to Syracuse University on the G.I. Bill. From these humble beginnings, he became a Wall Street legend. He readily embraced media depictions of himself like, “Bargain Shopper” and “Vulture Investor.” Like many in his generation who lived through the Great Depression, Marty revered FDR. While he was a committed capitalist, he was unwavering in the idea that government plays a crucial role in society. The concept of loss was never far from his mind, which was likely a leading contributor to the deep-value investment philosophy that came to be synonymous with his name.
In the early 1990s, I was introduced to Marty’s The Aggressive Conservative Investor by the late Gerry Pinkerton, Third Avenue’s first wholesaler. A light bulb went off in my head as Marty boiled down investing to deep fundamental company analysis done independent of the overall market and macroeconomic data. Marty stressed that company-specific analysis should be focused first and foremost on a company’s balance sheet. Additionally, resource-conversion considerations were paramount in Marty’s thinking since M&A was a perennial feature of corporate activities. Lastly, he counseled, be super price-conscious because price paid is what ultimately dictates returns. In the end, combining balance sheet “safety” attributes with a “cheap” price was his secret sauce. Upon reading Marty’s prolific writing, I instantly knew that deep-value was my kind of investing—intellectually challenging, quantifiable, eminently reasonable and stingy about what price to pay.
“Market prognostications are of no importance in value investing. In the investor’s lifetime, market conditions in politically stable environments in which there is no violence in the streets will be important so rarely that these macro-factors can be safely ignored.” — Marty Whitman
In the mid-1990s, I was following a lawsuit brought against a closed-end fund managed by Piper Jaffrey. The fund was comprised of U.S. Treasury bonds trading at a 15% discount to its NAV. One day I called up the Lutheran Brotherhood’s attorney to get a status update on the case and was told that the two sides had agreed on a settlement in which the fund would repurchase 50% of its shares at NAV, i.e., if only 50% of shareholders submitted to tender, then 100% of submitted shares would be repurchased. The lawyer informed me that the judge overseeing the case hadn’t yet approved the settlement, but that there was little reason to believe that she wouldn’t accept the settlement terms agreed upon by both parties. The lawyer said the agreement was publicly filed and I asked him if he could mail me a copy (this being pre-email days). I had stumbled upon an unlevered, U.S. government bond fund, paying a 6% annual yield, with a duration of six years, trading 15% below its liquidation value, with a catalyst right around the corner. I still get excited thinking about the investment.
After completing client purchases of the Piper fund, resulting in a 20% position in accounts, I wrote up a three-page memo and faxed it to Marty, not really expecting to hear back. The following morning, I picked up the phone to hear Marty’s gravelly voice, “This is Marty Whitman. I read your idea and like it. I’m gonna’ put you on with my trader, we’ll buy a million shares and pay you 2.5 cents a share.” I stammered and said, “Mr. Whitman, it’s a great honor to present an idea that you want to buy.” He responded, “Look, it’s a great idea, but like most great ideas, it’s a pretty simple one.” Marty gave me a price limit of $5.25. One day, anxious to complete the order, I tried to move him to $5.30 when the stock ticked up. He barked, “I said $5.25 top!” It took 40 days to complete, but he never paid a penny over $5.25.
The judge later did accept the settlement agreement. In the end, Piper decided to close the fund down and redeemed all shares at NAV. The investment uniquely underscored the crux of deep-value investing — despite an overall highly efficient market, securities do get mispriced. Marty’s approval of my idea gave me an invaluable shot of confidence. That initial phone call segued into a mentoring relationship that eventually became a friendship.
In 1998, after having gotten better acquainted and having further idea exchanges, I told Marty I was opening up Roumell Asset Management and asked if he would be willing to be an advisor and perhaps lend his name to my marketing efforts. He said, “Sure, call me an informal advisor but make sure you don’t mention it to anyone around here or they’ll be all over me.” I asked him for a quote for our marketing materials and he provided the following, “Jim’s investment philosophies and his actual investments snugly fit into my criteria for securities investment—safe and cheap.” Could he have possibly been more generous?
“In value investing, the analyst is extremely price conscious in making judgments about the attractiveness of a security. In other disciplines, the strong tendency is to be outlook conscious rather than price conscious.” —Marty Whitman
A few years later, Third Avenue decided to exit the separate account business and Marty recommended RAM as a replacement for two firms. With Marty’s stamp of approval, our credibility, and assets, grew.
I last saw Marty in December of 2017 over bagels in his office. He was sharp, and after musing about the world, we talked shop, as we always did. He proudly showed me his (highly concentrated) personal portfolio peppered with Hong Kong real estate stocks. I never left one of our meetings without telling him that he changed my life. He always demurred and just shrugged it off. It’s not often that a person can identify someone who changed their life, I’m fortunate to have a few, and Marty was undoubtedly one of them.
In reading through my “Whitman” file, I came across classic teachings of Marty and, of course, his ever-present sharp wit and intellect. In a 1994 interview, a journalist asked Marty, “Some of your holdings are relatively obscure companies that are thinly traded. Does that mean your investment approach is speculative?” Marty answered, “We’re anything but speculative. In fact, we’re extraordinarily conservative. We analyze businesses the way a businessperson does. Which, we think, is a process that’s far less speculative relative to Wall Street’s approach.”
Morningstar named Marty fund manager of the year in 1990. Publisher Don Phillips referred to Marty as a free thinker and a bold thinker and said, “When you get a manager with his character it really stands out.” Phillips went on to say, “His fund won’t move with the market, and he’ll give you exposure to opportunities you just won’t find in other funds.” In that tradition, we’ve long counseled our clients to not come to RAM for a market proxy.
Marty always stressed that investing was a business of dealing in probabilities, not certainties. The goal was to value the business and then stop. He realistically noted that there were always trade-offs in sourcing cheap securities and that, “In almost all cases when we acquire a security, the near-term earnings outlook is terrible.” Marty said, “You will often find us walking in when others are running out…” I recall pushing back on certain investment ideas with Marty and he would say, “Look, they all have hair. The next one that doesn’t will be my first.”
“Conventional security analysis overemphasizes the primacy of the income account to the exclusion of the balance sheet. Issuers lacking a good earnings record frequently are highly attractive.” —Marty Whitman
Deep-value can be a lonely business at times. In “Finding Bargains from the Bottom Up” published in April of 1995, Marty wrote, “At any given time, the best performing equities in the stock market will be those that are reporting improving GAAP earnings per share quarter to quarter; those that have the most popular industry identification, and those that are most heavily promoted by insiders and members of the financial community.” We rarely hang out with the popular kids who get all of the fun headlines, but as Michael Corleone said, “It’s the life we chose.”
While deeply indebted to Marty’s overall thinking about investing, RAM developed its own brand of deep-value investing. For one, unlike Marty, RAM is very scuttlebutt oriented in the tradition of investors like Walter Schloss and Irving Kahn. Particularly after Third Avenue reached tens of billions in AUM, Marty often bought super-sized battleships like Brookfield Asset Management, Toyota Industries, Forrest City Enterprises and Henderson Land Company in Hong Kong. Scuttlebutt is not a particularly useful investment tool for battleship investing. RAM’s sweet spot of micro/small cap securities requires, in our view, in-depth field knowledge. We enjoy detective work, while Marty never tired of document work. Second, Marty was a very dedicated buy and hold investor, while RAM’s holding period is typically two to three years. Marty held “modestly overvalued” securities, while RAM often sells a security as it approaches our estimate of intrinsic value.
What cannot be fully appreciated from Marty’s writings was his temperamental strength. He was built for public security investing with its gyrations and mood swings and the necessity to remain even-tempered often in the midst of severe volatility. At the height of the financial crisis, feeling beleaguered and beaten up, I called Marty up one day and asked, “Oh, Marty, how you doing?” He said, “I’m fine, shouldn’t I be?” He counseled that life was still good, markets sometimes go crazy… stick to your knitting, don’t buy on margin, and you’ll be fine.
There is some anecdotal evidence that perhaps deep-value investors have an edge in living long lives. Benjamin Graham lived to 82, Walter Schloss to 95, Irving Kahn to 109 and Marty made it to 93— average age of 95! In fact, Marty founded Third Avenue in 1986 at the age of 61, when most men his age would have been contemplating retirement. Marty founded Third Avenue after a long and successful career focused on distressed debt investing. Interestingly, all of these individuals were known for generously sharing their insights. All were educators at heart. Marty of course was a prolific writer, taught classes at Syracuse and Columbia and was an adjunct professor at Yale.
Marty was exceptionally generous and gave away a lot of money. He endowed Syracuse’s Business school, now named the MJ Whitman School of Business. In 2008, he and his wife founded The Lois and Martin Whitman Scholarship Fund at Tel Aviv University. Speaking as a Jew coming of age during a time of Jewish quotas, Marty said, “I spent half my life as a second-class citizen” and told students it is important “to give scholarships to Arab students at Tel Aviv University.” After having amassed great wealth, Marty and his wife looked for ways to lift up others. In the end, he referred to himself as, “A poor kid with a lot of money.” He eschewed common Wall Street excesses such as hiring private town cars for the daily commute and instead walked or took the subway to the office.
Marty was my mentor for sure, and he provided me with a framework to think about securities and investing that I turned into a thoroughly enjoyable career. But it is his kindness and his generosity in sharing his knowledge and experience that will stick closely to my bones. He was truly one of a kind. I’ll remain forever grateful that our paths not only crossed, but that a friendship ensued and grew each year.
One final writing of Marty’s dated January 3, 1999 is worth highlighting. At the time, Marty was certain that the market was significantly overvalued while in no way believing he could time its drop. “The appreciation in market prices for common stocks that make up the leading indexes have, in recent years, so far outstripped the growth in book value and earnings for the companies whose common stocks make indexes that these market prices seem now to be grossly out of line with corporate reality. Thus, the possibilities for disaster.” Of course, a few years later the S&P 500 dropped nearly 40% and the Nasdaq dropped over 50%. Today, according to Bloomberg, the S&P 500, on a price to book basis, trades at 92% of its historical percentile. On a price to trailing earnings basis, the index trades at 97% of its historical percentile. Percentiles are based on data since 1976.
However, the overall metrics in 1999 did not deter Marty from sticking to his knitting, “In contrast to this statistical picture for the S&P 500, many common stocks, especially well-capitalized small caps currently seem to be priced at bargain prices relative to long term earnings prospects and current book values.”
Disclosure: The specific securities identified and described do not represent all of the securities purchased, sold, or recommended for advisory clients, and the reader should not assume that investments in the securities identified and discussed were or will be profitable. The top three securities purchased in the quarter are based on the largest absolute dollar purchases made in the quarter.
This article by Matthew Haynes is excerpted from a letter of 1949 Value Advisors, an absolute return-oriented global value investment firm based in Mahwah, New Jersey. Matt is a valued contributor to The Zurich Project.
Shares in Birchcliff Energy have performed poorly, declining 14.5% over the last three months, following last quarter’s 27% drop. The reason remains the same – persistently weak western Canadian natural gas prices. The confluence of production growth (including associated gas from oil producers) and relatively warm winter temperatures resulted in stagnant demand for natural gas. Our saving grace during this period of weak demand and low spot prices is Birchcliff Energy’s low cost of production, enabling positive cash flow generation even amidst depressed natural gas prices. Again, we remain focused on Birchcliff’s latent asset value which we expect to either be slowly realized over time as they execute on their organic growth strategy, or more quickly unlocked through a catalyzing corporate event. While the prospect for the latter is remote in this environment, we are big believers in Birchcliff’s management team and their ability to manage challenges which are within their control. They’ve done an amazing job in a very difficult environment. We have great faith in the continued execution of their organic growth strategy over our investment time horizon.
Global Brands Group (GBG) shares had a similarly abysmal period, declining 31.2% during the most recent quarter, following a 15% decline in Q4 2017. The share price performance understates GBG’s business performance, as they too have managed to produce good results amidst a very challenging business environment for most companies in the retail industry. As one of the world’s leading branded apparel, footwear, fashion accessories and lifestyle product companies, GBG operates an asset light and scalable business model, escaping the challenges plaguing traditional bricks and mortar retailers. Despite the apparent disconnect between their business performance and the Hong Kong-listed share price, management seems quite capable of successfully executing their new three-year business plan.
Shares in Cirrus Logic, Inc. declined by 21.7% during the quarter following disappointing results and forward guidance. Troubles stem primarily from its over-reliance on Apple (86% of Cirrus’ revenues) amidst “unanticipated weakness in smartphone demand”. Market concerns regarding slower unit growth in 2018 are well placed, while seeming to ignore longer dated opportunities from increased Android content, digital headsets and other products using voice-activation and secure voice authentication. Cirrus’ current trough valuation and cash rich balance sheet should afford patient investors a margin of safety against a permanent loss, while its leadership position and expertise in voice signal processing should provide meaningful long term upside as new and innovative products come to market.
Positions that helped performance during the quarter include Western Digital (+1.2% contribution), Anglo American plc (+0.6% contrib.) and Shire plc (+0.6% contrib.). Shares in Western Digital advanced 16.7% during the period under review as the company reported favorable operating results and continued deleveraging from its prodigious free cash flow. Demand for digital data storage continues to grow and Western Digital’s #3 position in the global NAND market should ensure the company’s ability to return to net cash within two years, providing a meaningful uplift to its equity valuation.
Shares in Anglo American plc rose a further 9.5% in GBp during the quarter, following 2017’s 37% advance. Another deleveraging story making significant progress to this end from prodigious free cash flow, Anglo American continues to trade at a large discount to its peers. Synchronized global growth, a weaker US dollar and a stable Chinese economy should drive further upside in Anglo as it has transitioned from a deep-value restructuring and deleveraging story to a potential consolidation target. With its improved balance sheet and industry leading free cash flow yield, we think that it could be an attractive target for a number of potential acquirers, thus unlocking further value. Absent a bid for the company, Anglo’s current ~30% discount to peers should dissipate over time.
Finally, shares in new position Shire plc contributed positively to performance after Takeda Pharmaceutical (Japan) indicated their interest in acquiring Shire. Shares rose 19% from the date of our final purchases in building out the Shire position in late March. As of this writing, the deal seems likely to occur since Shire’s Board of Directors has indicated that it will recommend the deal to shareholders, contingent upon further due diligence and Board and shareholder approvals. Takeda’s most recent offer represents a 50% premium to Shire’s undisturbed share price.
Disclaimer: This summary does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase any security or investment product. Any such offer or solicitation may only be made to qualified investors and only by means of an approved confidential private offering memorandum or investment advisory agreement and only in those jurisdictions where permitted by law. This summary reflects select positions of the current portfolio of a managed account advised by 1949 Value Advisors. There is no guarantee that a commingled investment vehicle or another investment account managed by 1949 Value Advisors will invest in the same investments set forth in this summary. The investment approach and portfolio construction set forth herein may be modified at any time in any manner believed to be consistent with the managed account’s overall investment objectives. While all information herein is believed to be accurate, 1949 Value Advisors makes no express warranty as to the completeness or accuracy nor does it accept responsibility for errors appearing in the summary. This summary is strictly confidential and may not be distributed
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