Say-Something Syndrome

January 24, 2018 in Human Misjudgment Revisited

“[It] is a very important part of human organization to set things up so the noise and the reciprocation and so forth of all these people who have what I call say-something syndrome don’t really affect the decisions.” –Charlie Munger

This article is part of a multi-part series on human misjudgment by Phil Ordway, managing principal of Anabatic Investment Partners.

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Munger cites the honeybee’s incoherent communication “dance” when it tries to convey nectar in a location for which it has no words – rather than stay silent it dishes out gibberish.

Update

Also known as “Twaddle Tendency,” Munger notes that “man, as a social animal who has the gift of language, is born to prattle and to pour out twaddle that does much damage when serious work is being attempted.”

“A rightly famous Caltech engineering professor once expressed his version of this ideas as follows: ‘The principal job of an academic administration is to keep the people who don’t matter form interfering with the work of the people that do.’”

We’ve all been in meetings or classes that didn’t just feature say-something syndrome but were dominated by it. Many academic settings – including many prominent business schools – actively reinforce say-something syndrome by incorporating explicit “participation grades.” It wouldn’t be possible to count the amount of wasted time dedicated to meaningless drivel spouted only in the name of “participation.”

Likewise, many business meetings would feel incomplete to their participants if everyone didn’t pipe up at least once, regardless of any actual contribution. How many people have the intellectual desire or the political capital to say “nothing to add” when, as is often the case, they indeed have nothing to add?

I find this problem especially true in the interrelationships between investment analysts and portfolio managers, or between any business leader and a subordinate. There is an element of incentive caused-bias here (my bonus might be at risk if I’m not seen as an active participant) and agency issues (nobody ever hired a consultant and got a “nothing to add” response, even when that would have been appropriate; instead they’ll get at a minimum a lot of noise in the form of data and charts and straw man arguments). Not only do underlings generate a lot of noise – and noise that requires attention and energy to filter – but they are also prone to generating incomplete or misleading answers. A great boss will encourage people around him or her to frequently use the response, “I don’t know but I’ll go find out.” Both parts of that sentence are equally important and equally rare.

Journalists on a deadline are another worthwhile example. Shouldn’t a writer write a story because it’s timely and worth telling, not because it’s Thursday or the end of the month or whatever? Outstanding Investor Digest used to do that, and The Private Investment Brief does that now. But many of the columns and editorials we read suffer because of say-something syndrome. It’s not the writers’ fault – it is enormously hard to write a great column on investing 50 times a year. Very few writers are as talented as Jason Zweig, and even he admits that “My job is to write the exact same thing between 50 and 100 times a year in such a way that neither my editors nor my readers will ever think I am repeating myself.”[68] His case might be a double exception because not only can he pull it off but in the case of trying to save investors from their own mistakes, repetition might actually be necessary. But the overall point stands.

And it’s worth continuing Zweig’s quote about the necessity of repeating repeat himself, part of which ties back to our prior discussion of desirability bias: “[Repetition is needed] because good advice rarely changes, while markets change constantly. The temptation to pander is almost irresistible. And while people need good advice, what they want is advice that sounds good. The advice that sounds the best in the short run is always the most dangerous in the long run. Everyone wants the secret, the key, the roadmap to the primrose path that leads to El Dorado: the magical low-risk, high-return investment that can double your money in no time. Everyone wants to chase the returns of whatever has been hottest and to shun whatever has gone cold. Most financial journalism, like most of Wall Street itself, is dedicated to a basic principle of marketing: When the ducks quack, feed ‘em.”

[68] http://jasonzweig.com/saving-investors-from-themselves-2/

Common Mental Illnesses and Declines

January 17, 2018 in Human Misjudgment Revisited

This article is part of a multi-part series on human misjudgment by Phil Ordway, managing principal of Anabatic Investment Partners.

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Common mental illnesses and declines, including the tendency to lose ability through disuse

Update

Also known as “Use-It-or-Lose-It Tendency,” and related to man with a hammer tendency.

  • Use the functional equivalent of the flight simulator
  • “Throughout his life, a wise man engages in the practice of all his useful, rarely used skills, many of them outside his discipline, as a sort of duty to his better self.”
  • A reduction in the number of skills encourages a drift toward man with a hammer syndrome, along with a reduction in learning capacity.
  • “It is also essential for a thinking man to assemble his skills into a checklist.”
  • High-level skills can be maintained only with daily practice. The pianist Paderewski said that he could notice performance deterioration if he failed to practice for a single day, and that after a week the audience would notice too.

KKR: Misunderstood, Venerable Asset Manager at Deep Discount

January 13, 2018 in Audio, Best Ideas 2018, Best Ideas Conference, Equities, Financials, GARP, Ideas, Mid Cap, North America, Wide Moat

Naveen Jeereddi of Jeereddi Partners presented his in-depth investment thesis on KKR & CO. L.P. (NYSE: KKR) at Best Ideas 2018.

KKR is one of the largest and oldest alternative asset management firms with a strong forty-year history of value creation. KKR manages approximately $153 billion in assets with $88 billion in private markets and $66 billion in public securities. KKR is a substantial player in a growing oligopoly with comfortable incumbent profit margins and returns-on-capital dynamics. Industry assets have doubled over the last nine years while KKR has doubled its asset base in just five years. Average gross returns on capital over the forty years have averaged ~25% per annum. The company has roughly a $17 billion market cap and $12 billion of cash (and other net tangible assets on the balance sheet) with $45 billion of uncalled dry powder in fund structures. KKR has substantial permanent capital, and 80% of KKR’s assets are locked up for eight years or more with extremely high renewal rates. Due to subordinating governance structures, high insider ownership, complex accounting, business model confusion, and feared cyclicality, KKR trades at a low single-digit multiple of normalized earnings (assuming modest operating scenarios). KKR’s bargain share price values the growing investment business at an inexpensive multiple and provides the carried interest for free.

About the instructor:

Naveen Jeereddi is CEO and portfolio manager of Jeereddi Investments LP. He has approximately two decades of value-oriented experience financing, analyzing, and investing in public and private companies. Also, he has extensive portfolio and risk management experience. Naveen has served in value investment roles at Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette, Onex Corporation, The Baupost Group L.L.C., and Tala Investments LP. He currently serves on the boards of directors of Chandler Global PTE Ltd, XPRS Capital LLC, and iDream Media Inc. He earned an MBA with distinction from the Harvard Business School and a BBA with high distinction from the University of Michigan. Naveen lives in Los Angeles with his wife, Amy, and their four children.

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Discovery Communications: Global Cable Network at Attractive FCF Yield

January 13, 2018 in Audio, Best Ideas 2018, Best Ideas Conference, Consumer Discretionary, Equities, GARP, Ideas, Jockey Stocks, Mid Cap, North America

Stefan Culibrk of Culibrk Partnership presented his in-depth investment thesis on Discovery Communications at Best Ideas 2018.

About the instructor:

Prior to investing his capital through Partnership, Stefan Culibrk was employed by Bank of America Merrill Lynch in London, an investment bank, where he was trading emerging market equities from 2013 to 2014. Prior to joining the equities division, Stefan interned in the foreign exchange trading department in 2012. Stefan received a Master in Finance degree from the IE Business School, Madrid, in 2012. He has been a CAIA charterholder since 2010.

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Lear and Heidrick & Struggles: Two High Quality Free Cash Flow Bargains

January 13, 2018 in Audio, Best Ideas 2018, Best Ideas Conference, Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, Equities, GARP, Ideas, Mid Cap, North America, Small Cap, Wide Moat

Luis Sanchez of Overlook Rock Asset Management presented his in-depth investment theses on Lear (NYSE: LEA) and Heidrick & Struggles (Nasdaq: HSII) at Best Ideas 2018.

Lear is a tier-one global auto supplier of seating and electrical systems. Lear’s seating business is the #2 supplier of seating by volume but is the leader in luxury and sports car seating (high-end market with superior unit economics) and is the lowest-cost global manufacturer of auto seating. Seating is a mature business that throws off significant cash flow. The electrical systems business is only 33% of earnings but is poised for significant secular growth due to exposure to car electrification and car connectivity. It is estimated the market for Lear’s E-Systems will double and triple over the next five and ten years. Lear is a good business in a cyclical industry. Investors can purchase the stock for only 11x free cash flow. Luis believes the cyclicality of the auto sector is more than priced in and that investors have a call option on the company’s exposure to the car electrification and connectivity mega-trends.

Heidrick & Struggles is an executive search provider and talent management consultant. Heidrick’s executive search business focuses on senior executive searches at large corporations. The search business has limited competition at the senior executive level and is insulated from technology disruption due to its extremely tailored product offering. The company’s consulting business represents less than 10% of sales but is positioned for cross-selling opportunities with executive search customers. Heidrick & Struggles is a better business than other publicly traded recruiting businesses but the stock trades at a discount to peers. The company appears poised to benefit from an increase in corporate spending over the next few years as well as a lower tax rate (current effective tax rate is 40+%). Investors can buy the stock for ~11x normalized free cash flow and benefit from continued earnings growth.

About the instructor:

Luis Sanchez is a Managing Partner at Overlook Rock Asset Management LLC, an investment firm which manages separate accounts for clients. Overlook Rock employs a quantamental investment approach which marries quantitative techniques with value investing principles.

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FICO: Well-Managed, Misunderstood Cash Cow Business with Growth Platform

January 13, 2018 in Audio, Best Ideas 2018, Best Ideas Conference, Equities, Ideas

William Heard of Heard Capital presented his in-depth investment thesis on Fair Isaac Corporation (NYSE: FICO) at Best Ideas 2018.

About the instructor:

William Heard is the founder of Heard Capital LLC, and serves as the company’s Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer. Prior to founding and leading Heard Capital LLC, Heard was a Special Situations Analyst for Stark Investments, a global alternative investment firm. While at Stark Investments, he covered sectors spanning telecommunications, media, technology, financials, industrials, and energy. Heard’s investment experience varies across the capital structure to include leveraged loans, high yield bonds and equity securities. Heard currently serves on the Leadership Council for A Better Chicago, City Year Chicago Board of Directors, and actively participates in OneGoal; a diverse collective of local organizations creating opportunities for today’s youth and low-income population. Heard is a member of the President’s Circle and Young Professional Network for the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, Forbes Finance Council, and is a participating Advisory Board member for the Blackstone Foundation Inclusive Entrepreneurship Council for World Business Chicago and ChicagoNEXT. As an Advisor, Heard is part of a small group that will award grants to innovative organizations that effectively support diverse entrepreneurs and scale start-ups in the Chicago area. Heard is a graduate of the Marquette University’s College of Business Administration with a bachelors in both Finance and Real Estate. During his time at Marquette, he founded and established the Applied Investment Management (AIM) Program at Marquette University. AIM was the first undergraduate business program in the nation to be selected as a Program Partner by the CFA Institute. A strong proponent of higher education, Heard gives motivational speeches to students about leadership, globalism, and the nature of competition. In his spare time, he enjoys mentoring and reading.

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Cass Information Systems: Quality Business with Float and Optionality

January 13, 2018 in Audio, Best Ideas 2018, Best Ideas Conference, Communication Services, Equities, GARP, Ideas, North America, Small Cap, Wide Moat

Jonathan Isaac of Quilt Investment Management presented his in-depth investment thesis on Cass Information Systems (Nasdaq: CASS) at Best Ideas 2018.

Cass Information Systems is a leading provider of processes, software, people, and systems to manage and control the complexity of telecom, waste, utility, and transportation expenses (“complex payables”). Cass’s commercial bank invests “float” generated in the payment process, and engages in its own niche-focused banking. Float, a non-interest bearing liability, is a structural advantage for Cass because it lowers the average cost of funds for the bank and results in earning assets outnumbering interest-bearing liabilities. This imbalance powers net interest margin as interest rates rise. Cass also possesses optionality towards higher energy prices, as float per transportation invoice and fee revenue partly bear the impact of energy prices. Rebasing Cass’s historical results with a constant net interest margin shows the economies of scale of the complex payables business. The bond-like operating standard deviation of the complex payables fee revenue also shows a sticky business relatively unscathed by the financial crisis. Cass is well-positioned to benefit as interest rates and, to a lesser extent, energy prices “normalize”, and the impact is largely incremental to earnings before tax. Jonathan’s valuation model is predominately based on historical financial trends and modifications of the NIM; due to scale economies, even a consistent NIM produces decent returns, while an increasing NIM produces powerful effects. As the need for control and comfort with delegating control becomes more intrinsic to daily life, a Mungerian lollapalooza effect brews. Furthermore, US Bancorp, historically an acquirer in the field, looms as a potential acquirer.

Disclosure: “Certain accounts managed by Quilt Investment Management for clients own shares of CASS. Disclosures from the presentation also apply to this summary.”

About the instructor:

Jonathan Isaac, CFA, CFP® is President and Portfolio Manager of Quilt Investment Management, LLC, a registered investment adviser based in Tucson, Arizona. Quilt seeks to reconcile value investing with more modern concerns such as control, instability, and complexity. In addition to financial analysis and valuation work, Jonathan enjoys reading contemporary philosophy, composing experimental music, and the animal kingdom. Jonathan worked as a financial adviser in the Greater Los Angeles area for over four years before moving to Tucson and founding his firm. A graduate of Grinnell College, Jonathan received an education that, years later and with ongoing maintenance, continues to furnish surprising insights and perspectives.

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Discovery Communications: Fears Around Transition from TV/Cable to Online Overblown

January 13, 2018 in Audio, Best Ideas 2018, Best Ideas Conference, Consumer Discretionary, Equities, GARP, Ideas, Jockey Stocks, Mid Cap, North America

Gabriel Grego of Quintessential Capital Management presented his in-depth investment thesis on Discovery Communications (Nasdaq: DISCA) at Best Ideas 2018.

Discovery Communications is a broadcaster of unscripted content and part of the John Malone group of companies. Discovery is undervalued due to fears about the transition of content delivery from TV/cable to alternative channels such as online streaming. Fears may be overblown considering that content demand should not be particularly affected by the nature of distribution systems. Discovery has recently acquired Scripps, a similar and complementary business that should help reach critical mass and improve bargaining power when negotiating with advertisers. Discovery’s international business is growing at a faster rate and offers opportunities for cross-selling.

About the instructor:

Gabriele Grego has over 18 years of experience in finance and investment banking and is currently the managing partner and CIO of Quintessential Capital Management (QCM), a long/short equity fund based in New York. Prior to QCM, he worked at various asset management and investment banking firms in Europe and Israel. In 2001/2002 Gabriele served in an elite unit of the Paratroopers Division in the Israel Defense Forces. He holds a BA in Economics from Tufts University and the London School of Economics, an MBA from SDA Bocconi. He is currently enrolled at the Open University for a BS degree in Physics and Mathematics.

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AV Homes: Deep Value in U.S. Homebuilding, Run by Interested Insiders

January 13, 2018 in Audio, Best Ideas 2018, Best Ideas Conference, Consumer Discretionary, Deep Value, Equities, Ideas, North America, Small Cap

Harsha Gowda of BlueShore Capital Management presented his in-depth investment thesis on AV Homes at Best Ideas 2018.

About the instructor:

After working for several years in both the investment banking and the hedge fund industries in New York City, Harsha Gowda saw the need for a different type of investment company that focused on generating long-term returns for investors. Indeed, Harsha’s friends and family members continually sought his investment advice and expertise for their own savings. And therefore, Harsha founded BlueShore Capital Management (“BlueShore”) in late-2006. Harsha has continued to grow BlueShore both organically as well as through referrals from his current investors. Recently, following his move from the Northeast, Harsha has enlisted the help of #TeamElevate to establish a new base in the Tampa Bay Community.

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Olympic Entertainment and AMC Entertainment: Two Contrarian Investment Ideas

January 13, 2018 in Audio, Best Ideas 2018, Best Ideas Conference, Consumer Discretionary, Deep Value, Equities, Europe, GARP, Ideas, North America, Small Cap

Steve Gorelik of Firebird Management presented his in-depth investment thesis on Olympic Entertainment (TSE: OEG1T) and AMC Entertainment (NYSE: AMC) at Best Ideas 2018.

Olympic Entertainment is one of the largest casino operators in Eastern Europe. Operating in six countries, including Latvia, Estonia, and Slovakia, the company differentiates itself as a provider of higher-quality gambling experiences. Olympic’s spacious halls, attractive bar areas, and modern slot machines give revelers a reason to spend more time at the establishments, resulting in higher gross gaming revenue and profitability. Since 2010, Olympic has been growing revenue and EBITDA at 11% and 17% per annum, and ROIC on new investments (organic and M&A) usually ranges between 40 and 60%. Despite strong growth and profitability, the company trades at 5.5x EV/EBITDA and a 5.5% dividend yield. The attractive valuation is explained by the relatively low liquidity of the Tallinn stock exchange and some regulatory concerns. A number of significant recent investments have started bearing fruit, with nine-month 2017 EBITDA increasing 26% over last year; it should continue to drive near-term profit growth. Olympic trades near the bottom of its historical EV/EBITDA trading range and should generate mid-30s IRR over a two- to three-year holding period.

AMC Entertainment is the largest owner of movie theaters in North America and Western Europe. AMC shares were down 50+% in 2017 as the market became concerned about weak theater attendance data, relatively high leverage, and the possibility of changes to the 90-day exclusivity window enjoyed by theaters. Steve believes the market has overreacted to the challenges and is overlooking the fact that movie theaters have pricing power, as demonstrated through steady 3-4% growth in average ticket prices. Margins are improving steadily as a more significant proportion of revenue comes from higher-margin concession sales. AMC generates about $400 million of free cash flow (as compared to a $2 billion market cap), with most of the spare cash deployed into high-ROIC projects designed to improve customer experience. AMC’s operating cash flow before working capital changes is up 60% since 2013 because of these investments. An improving movie slate in 2018 and spending on customer experience improvements at newly acquired chains should lead to positive re-rating of AMC shares within 12 to 18 months. The multiples paid by Cineworld for close comparable Regal suggest 60 to 70% upside in the private market.

About the instructor:

Steve Gorelik is the Fund Manager of Firebird U.S. Value Fund as well as portfolio manager of Firebird’s Eastern Europe and Russia Funds. He joined Firebird in 2005 from Columbia University Graduate School of Business while completing education from a highly selective Value Investing Program. Prior to business school, Steve was an operational strategy consultant at Deloitte working with companies in various industries including banking, healthcare, and retail. He holds a BS degree from Carnegie Mellon University as well as a CFA (chartered financial analyst) charter and a membership in Beta Gamma Sigma honor society. Steve serves on the boards of Teliani Valley (Georgia), Arco Vara (Estonia), and Pharmsynthez (Russia). He speaks Russian, English and his native Belarussian.

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