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Naspers: Large Tencent Shareholder at Sum-of-the-Parts Discount

January 13, 2018 in Africa, Asia, Audio, Best Ideas 2018, Best Ideas Conference, Communication Services, Equities, GARP, Ideas, Information Technology, Jockey Stocks, Large Cap, Wide Moat

Jean Pierre Verster of Fairtree Capital presented his in-depth investment thesis on Naspers (South Africa: NPN) at Best Ideas 2018.

Naspers is a global internet and entertainment group founded in South Africa in 1915, and one of the largest technology investors in the world. The principal asset is a ~33% stake in Tencent, a leading Chinese technology conglomerate, which itself is one of the largest public companies in the world. The value of Naspers’ investment in Tencent represents more than its own market capitalization and almost 90% of a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation.

The discount to intrinsic value at which Naspers trades is comparable to SoftBank’s SOTP discount and to the discount at which Yahoo traded before the Altaba value-unlocking transaction. Importantly, Naspers has almost no tax leakage in the theoretical case of a sale of the Tencent stake. Naspers has generated strong returns from operations excluding Tencent, notwithstanding those operations only recently emerging from the investment phase of their “J-curve” earnings profile. The performance of those operations has, however, been dwarfed by Tencent’s ability to compound value at a high rate over the long term.

While there are technical and structural reasons for a discount to persist, the discount recently reached extreme levels, and Naspers’ management is incentivized to narrow it.

About the instructor:

Jean Pierre Verster is a Portfolio Manager at Fairtree Capital in South Africa, where he manages the ‘Protea’ range of Equity Long/Short hedge funds. Mr. Verster joined the firm in 2016. Prior to this, he was an Analyst at 36ONE Asset Management for 6 years, as part of a team which managed the largest single hedge fund in the country. Previously, Mr. Verster had been a Portfolio Manager and Analyst at Melville Douglas Investment Management and fulfilled various roles at the Standard Bank Group, including as a credit research analyst in its Global Markets Research division, a financial manager in the insurance services division and an internal auditor in the retail banking division. Since 2015, Mr. Verster is also an Independent Non-Executive Director and Chairman of the Audit Committee of Capitec Bank, the fourth largest bank in South Africa by market capitalization. He is a Chartered Accountant and holds the CFA and CAIA designations.

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KKR & Co.: Leading Private Equity Firm with Significant Balance Sheet Value

January 13, 2018 in Audio, Best Ideas 2018, Best Ideas Conference, Equities, Financials, GARP, Ideas, Mid Cap, North America, Special Situations

Rodrigo Lopez Buenrostro of KUE Capital presented his in-depth investment thesis on KKR & Co. (NYSE: KKR) at Best Ideas 2018.

KKR & Co. is one of the most successful private equity firms. It turns out managing money for external clients and investing it alongside yours in alternative, long-term compounding vehicles is a great business. KKR manages $153 billion, mostly from large pension funds and endowments. The market cap stands at $17 billion, of which 40% is owned by management. KKR makes money essentially from a recurring revenue stream of management fees, volatile yet profitable incentive income, and income from GP investments. The cost side is quite straightforward as well: the main expense is attracting and retaining talent. KKR is one of a few PE shops that have the scale to absorb large limited partner checks and the track record (brand) for CIOs to sleep well at night: no CIO will be fired for investing in KKR. Add this all up and you have a business that generates 17% ROEs. When you buy a share of KKR you are essentially partnering with the managing partners that own most of the business, raise the capital, and invest in attractive opportunities.

As the GP, KKR invests in its own funds and co-investments. On average, KKR has contributed about 7% of the AUM raised in their funds. This has translated into close to $11 billion on their balance sheet in a diversified mix of fund investments, co-investments, and outright control positions. These investments are also diversified in vintages, asset classes and geographies essentially providing a long term, compounding portfolio of great businesses. If we add net cash and accrued incentives to this investments account, after-tax value amounts to close to $10 billion, or ~60% of the recent market cap. This provides a significant margin of safety for KKR shareholders.

The most attractive attribute of the income statement is the fee-related earnings, which consist of stable, predictable management fees, after expensing for talent salaries, G&A, and placement fees. The value of this consistent stream of earnings comes at ~$8 billion for KKR, which accounts for more than the remaining 40% to reach the market cap, assuming after-tax earnings and a multiple that is lower than where the market has been recently.

In sum, at ~$20 per share, we are paying for the embedded value on the balance sheet plus a fair value for the recurring revenue business only. The gravy that the market has not priced in yet includes (i) value of the carried interest from current AUM and any additional AUM raised in the future; (ii) AUM that has been committed by LPs but are still not generating management fees; and (iii) any management fees above a growth rate of 6% into perpetuity.

About the instructor:

Rodrigo Lopez Buenrostro works at Kue Capital where he invests to preserve capital over time. He currently pioneers the asset management division within the firm and divides his time between equity research and manager selection with a global mandate. Previously, Rodrigo worked as a summer equity analyst at SW Investments, a value-focused hedge fund in Chicago. He began his professional career as an Investment Banker at BBVA. Rodrigo is a recent MBA graduate from Chicago Booth ’15 where he earned a concentration in Analytic Finance and was actively involved in the IM / HF community. He studied Business and Accounting at ITAM (Mexico Institute of Technology) for undergrad where he wrote his thesis on hedge funds and started to invest personally. Rodrigo has always had an interest in finding the real value of assets, reading, and volunteering at NGOs to teach basic concepts related to investing.

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Ocado: Investment Spend Depressing Profitability, Should Create Long-Term Value

January 13, 2018 in Audio, Best Ideas 2018, Best Ideas Conference, Consumer Staples, Equities, Europe, GARP, Ideas, Information Technology, Mid Cap, Small Cap

Brian Brosnan of Crystal Amber Advisers presented his in-depth investment thesis on Ocado (London: OCDO) at Best Ideas 2018.

Ocado is an online grocery pioneer in. Despite many challenges since it was founded in 2000, Ocado has established a successful UK business. The company subsequently broadened its focus to offer international food retailers access to its market-leading capabilities. With Amazon’s purchase of Whole Foods, Ocado appears to be in prime position. “Amazon just declared war on every supermarket and corner store in America,” proclaimed the CEO of Instacart following the Whole Foods deal. He captured the feelings of boards across the world. Grocery is a huge market and is moving online. The company’s high investment spend is depressing profitability, but if it can capture a small share of the global market, it can generate high operating leverage from its platform, with pre-tax ROI in excess of 50%.

About the instructor:

Brian Brosnan spent several years in strategy consulting where he worked with a diverse set of global clients. Since switching into investing he has worked in event-driven, long-short and cross-asset. He joined UK small-cap activist investor Crystal Amber in 2016.

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Liberty Global Group and Lilac Global: LILAK’s Formal Separation from LGI a Catalyst

January 13, 2018 in Audio, Best Ideas 2018, Best Ideas Conference, Communication Services, Equities, GARP, Ideas, Jockey Stocks, Large Cap, Mid Cap, North America, Wide Moat

Patrick Brennan of Brennan Asset Management presented his in-depth investment thesis on Liberty Global Group (Nasdaq: LBTY) and Lilac Global (Nasdaq: LILA) at Best Ideas 2018.

Liberty Global (LGI) is a dominant cable operator in Europe, with its five largest markets in the UK, Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, and Switzerland.

In 2015, LGI created a tracking stock (LILAK) that corresponds to the value of its Puerto Rican and Chilean cable systems. LILAK subsequently executed a complicated and controversial merger with Cable & Wireless (CWC) in 2016, partially funding the deal with LGI stock.

LGI shareholders hated that their stock was used to finance a purchase that many would find difficult to hold. Meanwhile, LILAK shareholders suffered significant losses because of LILAK’s poor initial execution following the closing of the transaction.

Both LGI and LILAK have frustrated shareholder bases that have suffered as the broader market has risen 35+% the past two years. However, LILAK’s formal separation from LGI, turning LILAK into an asset-backed company, may lead to a change in sentiment. This separation, along with company-specific catalysts, creates a compelling opportunity for those willing to dig into the complicated names.

About the instructor:

Patrick Brennan is the founder and portfolio manager of Brennan Asset Management, a Registered Investment Advisory firm based in Napa, CA, which utilizes a concentrated value investing strategy. Patrick has given presentations at multiple value investing conferences, including presentations to The New York Society of Security Analysts (NYSSA), The Nebraska Society of Securities Analysts and presentations on various names at the VALUEx Vail Conferences. Patrick coauthored an article on tracking stocks with Lawrence Cunningham for The Financial History Magazine and Patrick was featured in a write-up of Liberty LILAK in The Private Investment Brief. Prior to founding Brennan Asset Management, Patrick managed portfolios and led research efforts at two value investing firms in California: Hutchinson Capital Management and RBO & Co. Previously, Patrick worked at Mark Boyar & Company, where he led the firm’s research team and helped manage $800 million of assets across individual portfolios, institutional accounts and a mutual fund. Patrick also worked for six years in investment banking and equity research with Deutsche Bank, CIBC World Markets and William Blair & Company. Patrick graduated summa cum laude from the University of Notre Dame with a degree in economics and was inducted into Phi Beta Kappa. Patrick received the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation in 2002 and is a member of the CFA Institute (formerly AIMR). Patrick is originally from Omaha, Nebraska.

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Ashford: REIT Advisor with Strong Balance Sheet and Service Businesses

January 13, 2018 in Audio, Best Ideas 2018, Best Ideas Conference, Equities, GARP, Ideas, Micro Cap, North America, Real Estate, Small Cap

Mike Boroughs and Paul Misleh of Fortis Capital Management presented their in-depth investment thesis on Ashford Inc. (NYSE: AINC) at Best Ideas 2018.

Ashford is the external advisor to two publicly traded REITs, Ashford Trust (AHT) and Ashford Prime (AHP). AINC is a capital-efficient business that can be purchased for less than 8x next year’s EBITDA and can grow EBITDA at 30+% for years to come, with minimal additional capital needed. AINC has roughly $6.3 billion of “AUM” at the two REITs, on which it earns around 70 bps. AINC also owns service businesses, the largest of which is J&S which is an audio-visual company its REITs use. The power of AINC comes in its ability to responsibly grow the REITs (which it controls) and also buy top-notch service businesses and direct the REITs to use these. J&S was bought for ~6x EBITDA, which becomes 3x EBITDA once the REITs use the business. The company has a $40 million net cash position on a diluted market cap of $240 million. They are a full U.S. tax payer and will benefit significantly from the reduction in corporate taxes.

About the instructors:

Mike Boroughs, CFA, CPA is the Managing Partner and lead portfolio manager at Fortis Capital Management, a Seattle-based RIA focused on value investing with a behavioral overlay. Prior to Fortis, Mike was an Assistant Portfolio Manager at Glacier Peak Capital. Glacier Peak Capital is a registered investment advisor with approximately $190 million in assets under management spread across two discretionary hedge fund portfolios. Mike played a key role in launching Glacier Peak Capital as a spinoff from Summit Capital Group, where he formerly worked as an Equity Analyst. Prior to Summit, Mike was an auditor for Ernst & Young LLP where he earned his CPA designation, specializing in financial statement investigation. He graduated as Valedictorian from University of San Diego.

Paul Misleh, CFA, CPA is the Director of Research at Fortis Capital Management. He focuses on analyzing overall market conditions, sectors, geographies and individual securities. Paul spent nine years at Ernst & Young focusing on financial statement investigation and business valuation (auditing and financial due diligence) and Big Data/Advanced Analytics. Paul’s audit work was primarily for large US based companies (including IPOs, spin-offs and other transactions). His work in financial due diligence was focused on assisting major private equity firms in their valuation of businesses based on recurring “owner’s earnings”. He graduated Summa Cum Laude from the University of San Diego.

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Intelsat: Private Equity-Owned Leader in Industry with High Barriers to Entry

January 13, 2018 in Audio, Best Ideas 2018, Best Ideas Conference, Communication Services, Equities, Europe, GARP, Ideas, Information Technology, North America, Small Cap, Wide Moat

A.J. Noronha of Desai Capital Management presented his in-depth investment thesis on Intelsat (NYSE: I) at Best Ideas 2018.

While A.J. typically avoids leveraged companies in industries like technology that may have ongoing capex needs, and believes the company’s debt has justifiably weighed on the share price since the IPO, the selloff has created a buying opportunity with asymmetric return potential.

Despite the high debt, Intelsat’s strong margins, cash flow, discount to intrinsic value, concentrated ownership, and industry leadership position made A.J. take a closer look. With a strong contract backlog representing revenue that is several multiples of the recent market capitalization, high cash flow and margins, favorable industry growth trends, and the stock trading near the trough of the prior years, A.J. believes the shares have asymmetric return potential.

Intelsat’s leadership position in a fragmented industry with high barriers to entry provides sustainable competitive advantage, and concentrated ownership among private equity investors creates the potential for both an M&A liquidity event and a short squeeze. High debt is a legitimate concern, and A.J. would like to see the balance sheet prudently deleveraged. He also believes catalysts make Intelsat an attractive buying opportunity, with a price target range of $9-11 per share over two to four years.

About the instructor:

A.J. Noronha has over seven years of investment management experience, and has worked closely with Mr. Desai since Desai Capital Management’s inception with all aspects of the fund, with his primary responsibilities being equity research, due diligence, and developing investment theses for DCM’s portfolio. His independent research on Dow Chemical was rated by leading buyside community SumZero as one of their top ideas of 2015, and he was ranked as SumZero’s #15 overall LTM analyst during 2016. He was an invited participant (non finalist) in the 2017 Sohn Conference Foundation Idea Contest and 2017 SumZero/Van Biema Value Partners Idea Challenge. Prior to DCM, Mr. Noronha gained investment experience working for a mid-market PE/VC fund, and also co-founded and served in an executive role for a biomedical engineering startup. He earned a degree in Finance, magna cum laude, from the University of Notre Dame, where he was selected to be a member of the prestigious Applied Investment Management honors finance course where students manage a portion of the University endowment under the guidance of the Chief Investment Officer, and also holds a JD with Dean’s List honors & a concentration in business enterprise (selected coursework taken through the Kellogg School of Management) from Northwestern University. He successfully completed the CFA Level 1 & Level II exams on his first attempt, is preparing for the Level III exam in June 2018, and is an active Candidate Member of the CFA Society of Chicago & serves on its Professional Development Advisory Group Board.

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Dollar General: Undervalued Discount Retailer with Strong Unit Economics

January 13, 2018 in Audio, Best Ideas 2018, Best Ideas Conference, Consumer Discretionary, Equities, GARP, Ideas, Large Cap, Mid Cap, North America

Christopher Bloomstran of Semper Augustus Investments Group presented his in-depth investment thesis on Dollar General (NYSE: DG) at Best Ideas 2018.

Dollar General is a low-cost discount retailer with strong unit economics and a reasonable ability to grow store count by mid-single digits and EPS by 10% annually for many years. Store location and format provide a competitive advantage versus all forms of competition, including online. Through operational initiatives, the business can modestly expand EBIT margins and returns on capital employed and on incremental capital invested.

Weakness across traditional retail (generally justified), coupled with commodity deflation (temporary) and a decline in SNAP benefits (perhaps not temporary for the political cycle) weakened DG shares in 2017 to a reasonably attractive level. A purchase at the recent ~5% earnings yield may combine with multiple expansion of 20+% and create a long-run result that approaches the ROC of the business of 15+%.

A five-year estimate would have the business producing $35 billion in revenue among 18,500 stores and EPS of $7 per share, up from $23.5 billion, 14,500 stores, and $4.52, respectively, most recently. At a payout of 25%, dividends would be $1.75 versus $1.00 recently. At the current run rate of capital investment, the combination of new store openings, distribution infrastructure, remodels and relocations, dividends, and share repurchases cannot be funded entirely with operating cash flow.

To finance incremental net store growth of 1,000 units annually over the next five years and to maintain capital initiatives, net new debt of $2 billion will be required, excluding operating leases. Chris’s preference would be reduced share repurchases and a more equity-rich balance sheet. Overall, however, Dollar General presents a compelling growth opportunity in a brutally difficult retail environment.

About the instructor:

Christopher P. Bloomstran, CFA , is the President and Chief Investment Officer of Semper Augustus Investments Group LLC. Chris has more than 20 years of investment experience with a value-driven approach to fundamental equity and industry research. At Semper Augustus, Chris directs all aspects of the firm’s research and portfolio management effort. Prior to forming Semper Augustus in 1998 – in the midst of the stock market and technology bubble – Chris was a Vice President and Portfolio Manager at UMB Investment Advisors. While at UMB Investment Advisors, Chris managed the Trust Investment offices in St. Louis and Denver. Among his investment duties at the firm, he managed the Scout Balanced Fund from the fund’s inception in 1995 until 1998, when he left to start Semper Augustus. Chris received his Bachelor of Science in Business Administration with an emphasis in Finance from the University of Colorado at Boulder, where he also played football. He earned his Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation in 1994. Chris is a member of the CFA Society of St. Louis and of the CFA Institute. He has served on the Board of Directors of the CFA Society of St. Louis since 2002, where he was elected to sequential terms as Vice President from 2005 to 2006, President from 2006 to 2007 and Immediate Past President from 2007 to 2009. For several years Chris served as a member of the Bretton Woods Committee in Washington DC, an institution championing and raising awareness of the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the World Trade Organization. He has also served on various not-for profit boards in St. Louis. His family resides in St. Louis and he has volunteered as a coach of many of his two children’s athletic teams.

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Great Canadian Gaming Corporation: Transformation Acquisition a Catalyst

January 13, 2018 in Audio, Best Ideas 2018, Best Ideas Conference, Consumer Discretionary, Equities, GARP, Ideas, Mid Cap, North America, Small Cap, Special Situations

Reno Giancola and Jeff Hales of Alignvest Capital Management presented their in-depth investment thesis on Great Canadian Gaming Corporation (Toronto: GC) at Best Ideas 2018.

About the instructors:

Reno Giancola is a Portfolio Manager at Alignvest Capital Management. Mr. Giancola was previously a Vice-President & Portfolio Manager at Gluskin Sheff + Associates, where he managed several North American equity long/short Funds. Prior to Gluskin Sheff, he worked in private equity with Scotia Merchant Capital. Mr. Giancola graduated from Wilfrid Laurier University with a Bachelors of Business Administration and a minor in Economics. He has also earned his Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation. Mr. Giancola is an elected member of the User Advisory Council of the Accounting Standards Board.

Jeff Hales is a Portfolio Manager at Alignvest Capital Management. Mr. Hales was previously a Vice-President & Portfolio Manager at Gluskin Sheff + Associates, where he managed and co-managed a number of portfolios including the Canadian Equity, North American Value and Resource Funds. Prior to Gluskin Sheff, he worked in private equity with TD Capital, and in investment banking with Goldman Sachs. Mr. Hales graduated from Wilfrid Laurier University with a B.A. in Economics, earning the Governor General’s Academic Medal as the top student in his undergraduate class. He has also earned his Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation.

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XPO Logistics: Well-Managed Global Leader a Potential Acquisition Target

January 13, 2018 in Audio, Best Ideas 2018, Best Ideas Conference, Equities, Europe, GARP, Ideas, Jockey Stocks, Mid Cap, North America, Special Situations, Transportation, Wide Moat

Amil Bera of Advaya Investment Management presented his in-depth investment thesis on XPO Logistics (NYSE: XPO) at Best Ideas 2018.

XPO Logistics is a high-growth, best-in-class global logistics company, 60% in North America and 40% in Europe. The company provides contract logistics and transportation services. In transport, the company’s businesses include truck brokerage, less-than-truckload, last-mile logistics, intermodal and drayage, expedited, and global forwarding. The company has grown from $160 million in revenues in 2011 to over $15 billion today through acquisitions and market share gains.

CEO Bradley Jacobs has made over 500 acquisitions in his career and built billion dollar businesses, including United Waste and United Rentals. In 2011, he invested $150 million to purchase 71% Express-1 Expedited Solutions and renamed the company XPO Logistics. His plan was to follow the industry consolidation model he previously implemented to the highly fragmented logistics industry. The company invests heavily in technology, spending over $425 million annually to employ 1,600 full-time staff, including over 100 data scientists focused on predictive pricing and optimization.

Management is constantly improving margins through procurement cost savings, automation, asset utilization, labor management, improving pricing, culling money losing business, and expanding higher margin businesses as a portion of revenue. The company has proven itself a formidable competitor with an expanding moat in a high growth $1 trillion+ addressable market. The company benefits from a superior management team, incentivized sales force, competitive cost of capital, network effects from scale, and a strong reputation.

Recent rumors about acquisition interest from Home Depot, allegedly to fend off potential acquisition interest from Amazon, sent the stock to record highs. In our view, the value of what XPO Logistics is building and will become more apparent over time and continue to attract potential suitors. Yet, the independent company has a clear path to triple its market capitalization in the next five years through acquisitions and organic growth.

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About the instructor:

Amil A. Bera is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Advaya. Amil’s prior experience includes several investment roles for High Net Worth clients. He served as Vice President and Senior Investment Research Analyst for Wells Fargo Wealth Management in San Francisco. Prior to that, he served as Relative Value Strategies Analyst for SAIL Advisors, a Hong Kong-based Fund of Hedge Funds. Previously in New York, he served as the sole Investment Analyst for a large Family Office with capital allocations to private equity, venture capital, hedge funds, real estate, and opportunistic investments. Amil also worked as a Management Associate for the New York-based Equities Trading business of Banc of America Securities. Before graduate school, he was an Analyst at Cornerstone Research in New York, an economics and financial consulting firm where he focused on securities litigation cases. Amil has also worked in Mauritius as a Consultant for the International Monetary Fund and in New Delhi, India as an Economics Intern for the United States Department of State. Amil holds a Masters in Public Policy from Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government. He is a Phi Beta Kappa graduate of the University of California at Berkeley, where he attained a Bachelor of Arts in Political Economies of Industrial Societies with High Honors and a Departmental Citation. In his free time, Amil enjoys travel, yoga, volleyball, performing arts, dance, and good food.

Varex Imaging: Varian Medical Spinoff Undervalued due to Temporary Factors

January 13, 2018 in Audio, Best Ideas 2018, Best Ideas Conference, Equities, GARP, Health Care, Ideas, North America, Small Cap, Special Situations

Samir Mohamed presented his in-depth investment thesis on Varex Imaging (Nasdaq: VREX) at Best Ideas 2018.

Varex Imaging was spun off from Varian Medical Systems in January 2017. The company is a supplier of components and subsystems for medical and industrial X-ray imaging systems to OEM customers like GE Healthcare. Varex is a market leader in an oligopolistic market and has several competitive moats.

The company had declining sales and profit margins in 2015 and 2016 due to temporary factors, which leads investors to underestimate the future sales growth and profit margin potential. It has started adding local OEMs to address the large market potential in China. A shift from analogue X-ray detection technologies to digital detectors is likely to drive organic sales growth to 7-9% annually for years, as digital technology has only reached 30% penetration globally in 2016.

With an expected P/E multiple of 10x for 2020, the stock has 60-100% upside.

About the instructor:

Samir Mohamed started with value investing in 1999 and manages a private family fund full time since 2016. He focuses on good businesses with temporary problems and suppressed stock prices. He is covering a broad range of industries except financial services. Samir enjoys collaborating with other value investors regularly via in-person meetings and Skype calls. Previously, he worked for industrial companies in market research, innovation and product management. He holds a master’s degree in innovation and technology management from the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH Zurich).

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