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Discovery: Undervalued Media Assets With Strong International Business

January 11, 2018 in Audio, Best Ideas 2018, Best Ideas Conference, Communication Services, Deep Value, Equities, Europe, GARP, Ideas, Mid Cap, North America

Gary Mishuris of Silver Ring Value Partners presented his in-depth investment thesis on Discovery Communications (Nasdaq: DISCA) at Best Ideas 2018.

Discovery is undervalued because (i) the company has a meaningful competitive advantage based on its brands, distribution, and content library; (ii) the market is correct about the presence of secular challenges in the U.S. media market, but is wrong about their magnitude; (iii) the market is underestimating the long-term resilience and growth potential of Discovery’s international business; and (iv) the announced Scripps Networks (SNI) acquisition does pose meaningful risks, but at the same time if it is successful, it is likely to meaningfully improve the company’s competitive position, earnings power, and value per share. On a standalone basis, Discovery trades at under 45% of Gary’s base case value estimate, but with 55+% downside to his worst-case estimate (which includes an unfavorable outcome of the SNI acquisition).

Because of this, Gary has structured the investment in combination with a $15 January 2020 put option. This gives up some expected return, increasing the base case price to value relationship from 42% to 48%, while at the same time substantially reducing the downside to the worst-case to a more manageable 28%. Given that the next two years are likely to resolve the success or failure of the SNI acquisition, and somewhat likely to provide material information on whether Gary is right on the magnitude of the structural issues facing the industry and the company, the put option makes sense, as it is one-time insurance against a specific adverse outcome rather than an ongoing cost of the position. As a sanity check, the stock plus the put option combination recently traded at under 7x Gary’s estimate of 2020 post-integration EPS, a point in time during which the company should be at a sustainable level of financial leverage.

About the instructor:

Gary Mishuris is the Managing Partner and Chief Investment Officer of Silver Ring Value Partners, an investment firm with a concentrated long-term intrinsic value strategy. Prior to founding the firm in 2016, Mr. Mishuris was a Managing Director at Manulife Asset Management since 2011, where he was the Lead Portfolio Manager of the US Focused Value strategy. From 2004 through 2010, Mr. Mishuris was a Vice President at Evergreen Investments (later part of Wells Capital Management) where he started as an Equity Analyst and assumed roles with increasing responsibilities, including serving as the co-PM of the Large Cap Value strategy between 2007 and 2010. He began his career in 2001 at Fidelity as an Equity Research Associate. Mr. Mishuris received a S.B. in Computer Science and a S.B. in Economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).

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Atlantic Power: Underappreciated Independent Power Producer With Quality Assets

January 11, 2018 in Audio, Best Ideas 2018, Best Ideas Conference, Deep Value, Distressed, Energy, Equities, Ideas, Micro Cap, North America, Small Cap

Ian Clark of Dichotomy Capital presented his in-depth investment thesis on Atlantic Power (NYSE: AT) at Best Ideas 2018.

Electrical grids are becoming increasingly complex and shifting from the old model. Through this, valuations for many independent power producers have taken a hit, as many market participants do not understand the grid of tomorrow. Atlantic Power has the ability to be a profitable and dependable independent power producer for years to come, thanks to their high-quality assets. Investors seems to be looking at Atlantic Power with a rear-view mirror when the focus should be on where the company will be in five years. Ian believes Atlantic Power will be close to debt-free, with high-quality assets and a robust pipeline.

About the instructor:

Ian Clark is the Managing Partner of Dichotomy Capital, a broad mandate investment manager that looks for uncorrelated returns in the public and private markets. He began his career in chemistry designing organometallic catalysts and novel synthetic routes. He received his M.S. in Chemistry from the University of Oregon. The dislocation of 2009 led him to research a better way to invest. Applying the same approach utilized in his science background, Mr. Clark began publishing his investing ideas to receive feedback and criticism. Applying his science background to investing, Dichotomy Capital focuses on sectors where technical expertise can lead to better investment returns.

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Hanesbrands: Low-Cost Apparel Leader With Global Supply Chain

January 11, 2018 in Audio, Best Ideas 2018, Best Ideas Conference, Consumer Discretionary, Equities, GARP, Ideas, Mid Cap, North America

Barry Pasikov of Hazelton Capital Partners presented his in-depth investment thesis on Hanesbrands (NYSE: HBI) at Best Ideas 2018.

About the instructor:

Barry Pasikov is the founder and Managing Member of Hazelton Capital Partners, a value-oriented investment fund. The Fund is a distillation of Mr. Pasikov’s 20-plus years of experience in equities, currencies, commodities, options, portfolio and risk management. Launched in 2009, Hazelton Capital Partners employs two investing strategies: The Core Strategy constructs a concentrated portfolio of equity holdings that are selected based on a number of metrics, including sustainable revenue growth, margin expansion, the company’s balance sheet, and its management. The Overlay Strategy, through its use of options, commodities, currencies and risk arbitrage, complements the Core Strategy by providing a hedge as well as short-term cash flows. Barry holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from the University of Michigan.

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Asia Financial: Family-Owned Company With Attractive Insurance Assets

January 11, 2018 in Asia, Audio, Best Ideas 2018, Best Ideas 2018 Featured, Best Ideas Conference, Deep Value, Equities, Financials, Ideas, Mid Cap, Small Cap, Special Situations

James Choa of Valiant Ocean Capital presented his in-depth investment thesis on Asia Financial Holdings (Hong Kong: 662) at Best Ideas 2018.

Asia Financial Holdings, founded in the 1950s, is a family-owned insurance-focused holding company. AFH’s key investments include (i) wholly owned Asian Insurance (P&C), (ii) a joint venture in reinsurance, life insurance, and asset management, and (iii) direct investments, such as stakes in PICC Life and Bumrungrad Hospital, Southeast Asia’s largest private hospital. Asia Insurance, with its strong local market knowledge and underwriting experience, has one of the best underwriting track records in the region. Due to the insurer’s conservative underwriting and focus on profitability, the combined ratio improved to 81.4% in 2016, better than the 88.7% average for the top ten insurers. Reflecting the company’s strong competitive position and solid capital base, S&P has assigned an “A” rating to the business. AFH trades at a discount of ~44% to book value. The recent stock price is HK$4.40 per share, as compared to investments per share of HK$5.90 and cash on hand of HK$2.70 per share. Furthermore, the stake in PICC Life alone, which is carried at historical cost, could be worth 80+% of AFH’s recent market cap. The market effectively implies a negative value to the insurance operation. Asia Financial therefore sits on attractive assets ignored by the market. While the recent decision to dispose of the stake in Hong Kong Life is a good start to unlocking value, James sees multiple avenues in the short and medium term to enhancing value.

About the instructor:

James Choa is a private investor. He previously served as Managing Director of Valiant Ocean Capital, a Hong Kong-based value-oriented investment firm focused on companies with substantial exposure to Asia. Prior to Valiant Ocean, James was a member in the Goldman Sachs Asian Special Situations Group (ASSG), a multi-billion proprietary investment group, based in Hong Kong. Since joining Goldman Sachs in 2006, James was responsible for multi-strategy investments in Asia, covering public equities, PIPEs, private equity, high-yield loans, distressed debts, convertible bonds and value-based investments. Before Goldman Sachs, James was an Associate at the New York private equity firm Ripplewood Holdings, where he was responsible for structuring and executing leveraged buyout transactions in the industrial sector. Subsequent to completing the $550 million investment in Kraton Polymers, a specialty chemical business, James was appointed by Ripplewood to design strategic growth plans and implement operational enhancement strategies at the portfolio company in Houston, Texas. James started his career in New York with BT Wolfensohn (which subsequently merged with Deutsche Bank) where he focused on advising clients in mergers, acquisitions, and corporate reorganizations. James received his MBA with a concentration in Corporate Restructuring & Turnaround Management at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. James also graduated from the Jerome Fisher Program in Management & Technology from the University of Pennsylvania where he received his BSE in Finance and BAS in Systems Engineering. James is a CFA charter holder and a member of the Hong Kong Institute of Directors.

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Dawson Geophysical: Undervalued Seismic Services Leader with Strong Balance Sheet

January 11, 2018 in Audio, Best Ideas 2018, Best Ideas Conference, Communication Services, Deep Value, Energy, Equities, Ideas, Micro Cap, North America

Michael Melby of Gate City Capital Management presented his in-depth investment thesis on Dawson Geophysical (Nasdaq: DWSN) at Best Ideas 2018.

Dawson Geophysical is the largest provider of onshore seismic acquisition services for the oil and gas industry in North America. Customers include oil and gas exploration companies and multi-client seismic data libraries. Operating results suffered as the decline in oil prices in 2014-2015 reduced demand for the company’s services. A strong balance sheet and conservative capital structure helped Dawson survive a prolonged industry downturn that resulted in restructurings and bankruptcies for many peers. The seismic acquisition market has recently showed signs of improvement as rig counts have increased, the outlook for exploration capital spending has improved, and seismic crews are put to work. The balance sheet continues to be rock-solid, with $42+ million in cash, no debt, and owned property and equipment with book value of $90+ million. Dawson recently had an enterprise value of only $75 million. It is attractively valued at ~0.5x revenue and ~0.7x tangible book value. Mike expects Dawson to generate EBITDA of $25+ million in 2018, which would result in forward EV/EBITDA of less than 3x. Based on Mike’s DCF analysis, he values Dawson at $150+ million or nearly $7 per share.

About the instructor:

Michael Melby is the founder and portfolio manager of Gate City Capital Management, a micro-cap value focused investment firm. Before starting Gate City Capital, Michael worked as a research analyst at Crystal Rock Capital Management where he covered the consumer, restaurant, retail, and gaming sectors. Michael previously worked at Deutsche Bank Securities in their Debt Capital Markets group and at the University of Notre Dame Investment Office where he focused on natural resources, fixed income, and risk management. Michael earned an MBA from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business where he graduated with Honors and a BBA in Finance from the University of Notre Dame where he graduated Summa Cum Laude. Michael is a CFA Charterholder and has earned the Financial Risk Manager designation.

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Reno de Medici: Strong Number-Two Player with Margin Improvement Potential

January 11, 2018 in Audio, Best Ideas 2018, Best Ideas 2018 Featured, Best Ideas Conference, Deep Value, Equities, Europe, Ideas, Materials, Micro Cap, Small Cap

Raphael Moreau of Amiral Gestion presented his in-depth investment thesis on Reno De Medici (Italy: RM) at Best Ideas 2018.

Reno de Medici, with a market cap of €200+ million, has a number-two position in the European recycled-fiber cartonboard market. Historically a poor performer in an industry where the leader enjoys both high and stable profitability and valuation, Reno de Medici has been in the process of tackling the reasons for its underperformance. After a long journey of shutting weak mills, the company appointed a new CEO alongside simplifying the group’s structure to make the organization more efficient. The plan is now to make the different parts of the group work together and extract the associated network synergies, and accelerate the sharing of industrial best practices within the group. The purpose is to get close or reach the leader’s operating metrics. To what extent the latter is possible, it is unclear, but Raphael has strong confidence that the current measures are going to generate significant improvements to the company’s performance. The recent stock price prices in essentially no improvement to current results, so risk appears contained. In a best-case scenario in which the company reaches the leader’s profitability, Raphael estimates the upside at close to 100%.

About the instructor:

Raphael Moreau made his first investment in the French stock market in 1998. Rapidly won over by a passion for investing and reading the writings of Warren Buffett, he joined Amiral Gestion in 2008 following the completion of his Master at ESSEC Business School and experiences in sell-side research at UBS and fixed income analysis at CACIB. Nowadays, Raphaël focuses on European small caps. Founded by François Badelon, Amiral is an independent employee-owned asset management firm based in Paris. Amiral’s single goal is sustained performance with minimum risk based on the firm’s value investing approach.

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Spark Networks, Franklin Covey, and Redbubble: Three Undervalued Small-Cap Ideas

January 11, 2018 in Asia, Audio, Best Ideas 2018, Best Ideas 2018 Featured, Best Ideas Conference, Communication Services, Deep Value, Equities, GARP, Ideas, Micro Cap, North America, Small Cap, Special Situations

John Lewis of Osmium Partners presented his in-depth investment theses on Spark Networks (NYSE: LOV), Franklin Covey (NYSE: FC) and Redbubble (ASX: RBL) / Leaf Group (NYSE: LFGR) at Best Ideas 2018.

Spark Networks is an orphan with low following after several years of disappointing results. In November, the company reverse-merged with Elite Singles, and John believes a substantial transformation is at hand. Insiders own ~85% of equity and a former insider recently filed that he personally bought 9.4% of outstanding shares. The new Spark Networks will see revenue increase ~5x from $25 million to nearly $120 million, based on company guidance. This increased scale should generate $20 million in adjusted EBITDA, also based on guidance, and a market cap of $175 million. The share count post reverse stock split is 13.4 million. The business has significant global scale, operating in nearly thirty countries, with a portfolio of premium subscription brands and a low-cost opex structure out of Berlin. John believes the business is poised to generate high returns on capital and the franchise has substantial reinvestment opportunities to grow shareholder value. If the company hits $2 per share in adjusted EBTIDA (a close proxy to free cash flow), the business may be worth $30 per share.

Franklin Covey: Digital transformation is deep in process, yet the market valuation fails to recognize this, as most of the long-term shareholder base is overly focused on the old delivery model. Franklin Covey’s All Access Pass grew revenue from $23 million to $63 million on a year-over-year basis. John expects this to grow $50+ million a year given the current business model. AAP has 90% recurring revenue, and management has guided for this business to have 30-40% EBITDA margins at scale. As this business continues to scale, FC revenue streams will consist of royalties (15% of revenue) from international licensees, the “Leader in Me” K-12 education business with a five-year 15% CAGR in revenue and 10% EBITDA margins, and the direct offices business (includes AAP). The traditional delivery format, plus the “Leader in Me” business, and international licensee value comes to nearly $20 per share, and AAP is valued at only $2 a share or $25 million, which John thinks is worth closer to $250+ million. John estimates that FC is worth $32-40 per share.

Redbubble / Leaf Group: For several understandable of reasons, investors have failed to discover two fast e-commerce platform businesses. Redbubble trades in Australia but 93% of revenue is in the U.S. and Europe. The business is a two-sided platform growing 30+%, with 25% incremental EBITDA margins. Redbubble has a five-year organic top-line growth rate of 50+%. The CEO owns nearly 30% of the equity and the company has a strong balance sheet, with $27 million in net cash. Leaf is a busted IPO that has slowly rebuilt itself with a solid team, including the CEO who was formerly CEO of Ticketmaster. Both companies should reach steady-state consistent profitability in 2018 (both were marginally cash flow positive in Q3 CY17). Both companies trade at sharp discounts to better-known public peers such as ETSY. RBL/LFGR trade at a ~75% discount to ETSY on an EV/sales basis, yet RBL combined with LFGR marketplaces platform would be nearly 67% the size of ETSY. Finally, John believes Leaf’s media business segment plus cash is worth $8-10 per share to a strategic buyer.

About the instructor:

John Lewis is the Managing Partner and Chief Investment Officer at Osmium Partners, LLC., a value-based long-short equity fund founded in 2002. Over the past 15 years, Osmium Partners has invested in undervalued US-based small-capitalization stocks with a focus on our proprietary process call the Osmium Eight. As engaged and constructive investors, Osmium works to drive long-term shareholder value. Mr. Lewis has served on two public boards in a board range of capacities including as Chairman of the Nominating & Governance, Compensation, Audit, M&A, Special Committee, and Risk Management Committees. Over the last four years, Osmium has appointed over 12 directors to four public companies. Mr. Lewis was Director of Research at Retzer Capital and an Equity Research Analyst at Heartland Funds. He received a BA from the University of Maryland and an MBA from the University of San Francisco.

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Medley Capital: BDC Trading at Discount and Offering 11% Dividend Yield

January 11, 2018 in Audio, Best Ideas 2018, Best Ideas 2018 Featured, Best Ideas Conference, Deep Value, Equities, Financials, Fixed income, Ideas, Micro Cap, North America, Small Cap

Jim Roumell of Roumell Asset Management presented his in-depth investment thesis on Medley Capital (NYSE: MCC) at Best Ideas 2018.

Medley Capital is a Business Development Company (BDC), trading at a 35% discount to the most recently reported net asset value (as of September 30, 2017). MCC is comprised of roughly 68% first-lien notes, 16% second-lien notes, and 16% equity (as a result of debt-for-equity exchanges). MCC’s discount is unusually high, and this BDC pays a dividend of $0.16 per quarter (which it is currently earning), resulting in a yield in excess of 11%. Although access to underlying financial statements of the privately placed notes inside MCC’s portfolio is not possible, Jim believes aggressive stresstesting and default scenarios still leave MCC a bargain. Even assuming that Class 4 and Class 5 assets have a loss ratio of 100%, NAV is still $6.10 per share compared to a recent price of $5.30 per share. Importantly, BDC’s are restricted by the 1940 Investment Company Act and must maintain modest leverage of 2x, i.e., $1 of equity can be leveraged by $1 of debt. MCC’s capital structure is strong, with ample liquidity, including $108 million in cash. In the past several months there has been meaningful inside buying by MCC’s investment manager, Medley Management (MDLY), controlled by MCC CEO Brook Taube, at significantly higher prices than the recent price.

About the instructor:

Jim Roumell entered the securities industry in 1986. Before founding the firm in 1998, he was a Registered Principal at Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Mr. Roumell is a frequent contributor to Manual of Ideas Global and has been featured in such publications as Barron’s, Kiplinger’s, Value Investor Insight, Financial Planning Magazine, and The Washington Post. He is listed and quoted in “The Art of Value Investing: How the World’s Best Investors Beat the Market.” Mr. Roumell was selected to participate in, and won, two consecutive Wall Street Journal stock picking contests in 2001 and 2002. He is a Board Member and Chairman of the Investment Committee of Wayne State University Foundation. He is also a Board Member and serves on the Investment Committee of Amalgamated Casualty Insurance Company. Mr. Roumell is a graduate of Wayne State University in Detroit, Michigan.

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First Republic: Retail Franchise with Superior Service for High Net Worth Individuals

January 11, 2018 in Audio, Best Ideas 2018, Best Ideas 2018 Featured, Best Ideas Conference, Equities, Financials, GARP, Ideas, Mid Cap, North America, Wide Moat

Sean Stannard-Stockton of Ensemble Capital Management presented his in-depth investment thesis on First Republic Bank (NYSE: FRC) at Best Ideas 2018.

First Republic Bank is one of the best-run banks in the U.S. Importantly, rather than engaging in the commodity business of buying and selling money, First Republic is actually a retail franchise offering superior customer service to high net worth individuals. This unique approach has led to the company growing rapidly since its founding in the 1980s with a long growth path ahead. With net promoter scores on par with Apple and Amazon versus competitors who score lower on customer satisfaction than cable companies, telecoms, and airlines, First Republic has a deep competitive advantage that elevates the business out of the commodity banking industry into a class by itself. At 17x 2018 consensus earnings, the stock screens expensive for a bank. But with 20% revenue growth and margin leverage as the company works through investments it is making in the business and interest rates normalize, the stock offers compelling long-term upside of 13-16% per year over the next three to five years.

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About the instructor:

Sean Stannard-Stockton, CFA is the president and chief investment officer of Ensemble Capital Management, and portfolio manager of the Ensemble Fund. In addition to advising the Ensemble Fund, Ensemble Capital manages approximately $675 million in separate accounts on behalf of families and charitable institutions. Prior to working at Ensemble Capital, Sean worked at Scudder Investments. He holds a BA in Economics from the University of California, Davis and the Chartered Financial Analyst designation.

HCA Healthcare: Aggressive Share Repurchases to Drive Shareholder Value

January 11, 2018 in Audio, Best Ideas 2018, Best Ideas 2018 Featured, Best Ideas Conference, Equities, Health Care, Ideas, Large Cap, North America, Wide Moat

Jim Zimmerman of Lowell Capital Management presented his in-depth investment thesis on HCA Healthcare (NYSE: HCA) at Best Ideas 2018.

HCA is the largest for-profit hospital company in the U.S. It is essentially a modestly leveraged LBO of a stable, non-discretionary business with strong cash flows and deeply entrenched competitive positions in some of the most attractive local markets in the U.S. HCA has 177 hospitals located in some of the fastest growing and most attractive geographic markets, with average share of ~25% in those local markets. Only about 2% of HCA’s admissions are exchange patients under the ACA/Obamacare and only about 5-6% of EBITDA. HCA is the most efficient and lowest-cost operator in the for-profit hospital industry, which should enable it to deal effectively with changes in government payment programs or reimbursement rates. Healthcare is a less discretionary expenditure, as was made clear by strong results in the Great Recession, when HCA was more leveraged (net debt to adjusted EBITDA of about 6x versus 4x recently). It is difficult to open new hospitals, which require a Certificate of Need (CON). The number of hospitals in the U.S. has declined over the past twenty years while the U.S. population has increased, and almost 80% of hospitals in the U.S. are less competitive non-profit or government-owned hospitals.

HCA has a cash-generative business model and opportunities to deploy capital to make the moat stronger. HCA also has one of the strongest balance sheets in the industry, with net debt to adjusted EBITDA of ~4x. HCA is aggressively repurchasing shares to drive shareholder value, with shares outstanding reduced from 496 million at yearend 2011 to 360 million as of 3Q17, a reduction of 27%. HCA trades at multiples of ~7.8x adjusted EBITDA and ~13x EPS. Jim expects HCA to repurchase 20 million shares annually in 2018, 2019, and 2020 and end 2020 with shares outstanding of ~300 million. HCA has grown adjusted EBITDA at close to 6% annually from 2011 to 2016, from $6.1 billion to $8.2 billion. HCA is an important part of the U.S. healthcare industry, with ~5% of U.S. patients serviced in HCA’s extensive network of hospitals and outpatient facilities. Based on 8x Jim’s estimated adjusted EBITDA of $9.5 billion for 2020, with net debt of ~$31 billion outstanding at yearend 2020, HCA could trade for an EV of close to $76 billion or a market cap of $45 billion. Based on 300 million shares outstanding estimated by yearend 2020, this would imply a share price of ~$150 per share or 70% higher than the recent price of $88 per share.

About the instructor:

Jim Zimmerman is founder and portfolio manager of Lowell Capital Value Partners, LP, successor fund to Lowell Capital Fund, L.P. Mr. Zimmerman managed Lowell Capital Fund L.P. from 2003 to 2015 employing a proprietary strategy laser-focused on smaller and/or misunderstood companies with large, sustainable free cash flow yields and “Ft. Knox” balance sheets. He generated a compound annual return significantly exceeding the HFRI Equity Hedge Index and the S&P 500 Total Return Index over this period, despite holding a significant net cash position (~30%) for most of this period. He has over 25 years of investment banking and investment management experience in a variety of industries and has been involved with several billion dollars of investments. He has been a member of the invitation-only Value Investors Club for over 10 years, contributing detailed investment write-ups on 35 companies to date which have produced an average return exceeding 50% per investment. He has built an extensive network of relationships with value-oriented investment groups and activists. Mr. Zimmerman graduated with a BA with high honors in economics from Princeton University in 1980 and an MBA from Stanford Business School in 1984. He worked at Drexel Burnham Lambert, Inc., 1984 to 1990, serving in the Corporate Finance Department and multiple other investment banks from 1990 to 2003. He is a close follower of Warren Buffett and his investment approach.

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