Boston Beer: Inflection Opportunity at America’s Largest Craft Brewer

Chris Crawford of Crawford Fund Management presented his investment thesis on Boston Beer Company (NYSE: SAM) at Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2025.

Thesis summary:

Boston Beer Company is the largest American-owned alcoholic beverage company, holding leading positions across several niche segments including craft beer, hard cider, flavored malt beverages, and hard seltzers. After enduring significant headwinds following the burst of the hard seltzer bubble in recent years, Boston Beer now presents compelling turnaround potential. The company’s founder-led management team has demonstrated a long history of effective innovation and successful operational recoveries, positioning the firm well to capitalize on emerging growth drivers.

Recent product launches, notably Sun Cruiser and Sam’s American Light, have shown promising early traction. Sun Cruiser, positioned against High Noon in the vodka tea segment, has successfully doubled its market share since its initial launch. Sam’s American Light, launched nationwide in 2025, is strategically aimed at the massive mainstream light beer segment, potentially extending brand equity beyond traditional craft beer boundaries. Although the growth potential of another product, Hard Mountain Dew (a collaboration with Pepsi), is less certain, these new product introductions significantly enhance the company’s growth profile.

Boston Beer’s competitive advantages are underpinned by robust brand recognition, a resilient nationwide distribution network, regulatory barriers to entry, and significant economies of scale. Despite these strengths, periodic market disruptions — such as the craft beer and hard seltzer downturns — have historically impacted its trajectory. Nevertheless, these disruptions have been followed consistently by recoveries and renewed growth, demonstrating the company’s resilience and adaptability.

Financially, Boston Beer maintains a debt-free balance sheet, allowing significant flexibility for internal investments and opportunistic repurchases of undervalued shares. Management’s disciplined share repurchase strategy, buying back stock at substantial discounts to intrinsic value, further underpins shareholder value creation. Founder Jim Koch, who owns 20% of the company, remains actively involved and deeply committed to long-term strategic growth, underscoring a strong alignment of interests with shareholders.

Recently, Boston Beer shares traded significantly below intrinsic value estimates, down approximately 85% from their 2021 highs. Chris’s valuation suggests substantial upside potential, assigning a blended appraisal value of $302 per share, reflecting a 60% base case scenario. Given the embedded optionality of Boston Beer’s innovative R&D pipeline, robust balance sheet, and historical valuation ranges, upside scenarios could be considerably higher, positioning the company as both an undervalued turnaround story and a potential acquisition target.

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About the instructor:

Chris Crawford is the Managing Partner and Chief Investment Officer of Crawford Fund Management, LLC, a Boston-based Investment Partnership. The firm manages a long/short fund that invests in equities and options with an emphasis on underfollowed public companies. Prior to co-founding Crawford Fund Management in 2009, Chris was Managing Director, Portfolio Manager and head of the Boston office with Stark Investments, a $10B multi-strategy global hedge fund. At Stark, Chris built the firm’s equity long/short team and managed $1.5B in equity long/short assets as well as a $200M short-biased portfolio. From 2003-2006, Chris was Senior Vice President and Portfolio Manager with Putnam Investments, and co-Portfolio Manager of the $3B Putnam International Capital Opportunities Fund and related client accounts. From 2000 to 2003, Chris was a Partner and Senior Analyst with ABRY Partners on a team managing a $400M TMT-focused hedge fund. From 1996 to 2000, Chris was with Wellington Management Company, where he served as a Global Industry Analyst covering the media industry and as a Portfolio Manager for $600M in client sector-fund and institutional assets. Chris holds an MBA from The Wharton School of Business and graduated magna cum laude from University of Pennsylvania with a BA in Physics, BS in Economics, BAS in Systems Engineering and an MA in International Relations.

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