Boeing: Why the Ortberg Era Could Mark a Turning Point

Dave Sather of Sather Financial Group presented his in-depth investment thesis on Boeing (NYSE: BA) at Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2025.

Thesis summary:

Boeing presents a classic turnaround opportunity, driven by recent managerial and strategic changes aimed at addressing significant cultural and operational issues stemming from previous leadership. Since 2018, Boeing faced considerable setbacks due to poor decision-making, excessive financial focus, and deteriorating machinist relations, culminating in major losses and substantial cash burn. Notably, Boeing delivered an average of only 370 aircraft annually post-2018, sharply below its peak of 806 deliveries in 2018. This turbulence, combined with struggles in its defense business, led Boeing to accumulate approximately $36 billion in negative free cash flow over the period.

However, Boeing’s core competitive advantages remain robust, reinforced by its entrenched duopoly position with Airbus in commercial aviation. The significant backlog of over 6,000 aircraft, strong switching costs for airlines, regulatory barriers, and massive scale needed for R\&D and manufacturing underscore Boeing’s intact moat. New CEO Kelly Ortberg, appointed in August 2024 with an engineering rather than financial background, marks a deliberate shift towards quality and operational excellence. Boeing is also set to enhance control over its supply chain with the planned acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems in mid-2025.

The path to recovery hinges on Boeing’s ability to incrementally ramp up production—particularly the critical 737 MAX—and stabilize its defense segment by renegotiating challenging contracts and improving execution. Boeing recently traded at approximately $165 per share, reflecting cautious market sentiment given its recent history. Yet, a successful turnaround could lead to a substantial valuation rerating, with potential intrinsic values ranging between $250 (base scenario) and $300 (bull scenario) per share by the early 2030s, supported by normalized free cash flow and profitability metrics.

The full session is available exclusively to members of MOI Global.

Members, log in below to access the full session.

Not a member?

Thank you for your interest.  Please note that MOI Global is closed to new members at this time. If you would like to join the waiting list, complete the following form:

First name:

Last name:

Email address:

City / state / country:

Company:

How did you hear about MOI Global? Select Member referral Staff This website Media / Internet Other

If referral, please provide member's name:

Which of the following applies most closely to you? Select Investment Firm - Head Investment Firm - Analyst or PM Institutional Allocator - Firm C-Level Executive Institutional Allocator - Firm Employee Family Office - Head or Co-Owner Family Office - Employee Non-Investment Firm - C-Level Executive Non-Investment Firm - Employee Other

How do you hope to add value to the community?

Leave this field empty if you're human:

About the instructor:

Dave Sather is a CFP and the CEO of Sather Financial Group, a $1.8 billion firm managing individual accounts headquartered in Texas. Dave has degrees in business from Texas Lutheran University and Texas A&M University. Dave serves on the Board of Regents at Texas Lutheran University, chairing the Investment Committee. He developed and teaches the Bulldog Investment Company internship at Texas Lutheran University (www.BulldogInvestmentCo.com). This student managed investment fund has compounded at 15.4% per year over the last 15 years outperforming the S&P 500 by 264 percentage points. Recently, the program was recognized as the top student led business program by the Accreditation Council for Business Schools and Programs, which oversees more than 1,200 programs internationally. Dave also created and runs the Big Dog Endowment program (www.BigDogEndowment.com) , also at TLU, which teaches analytical and business skills for non-profit and philanthropic endeavors.

The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.