This article is excerpted from a letter by MOI Global instructor John Lewis, chief investment officer of Osmium Partners, based in Greenbrae, California.
As we mentioned in our last newsletter we were looking to raise a fund for two ideas that we thought had 3-4x upside over the next 3-4 years. One of the ideas is off the table, as a group consisting of the CEO, another Board Member, and Chairman bought the 10 million share block about 10 days ago, which is what we were looking to buy in the proposed side pocket.
This first idea we were seeking to raise a fund for was Glacier Media (GVC.TO). GVC trades at CAD$0.65 and we think the business could be sold today for about 3-4x what it is trading for in the markets. We believe just two, REW and ERIS, out of their many businesses, alone could be sold for close to the entire value of the enterprise and make up less than 10% of total revenue. In April, Glacier sold their share of a 50% interest in Fundata for $55 million which is slightly below the current market cap. GVC now has 70%+ of their EBITDA from growing businesses in digital and subscription services and generates over 100 million plus page views a month across their properties in Real Estate, Community Newspapers, Farm/Ag, Mining, Oil and Gas. We think the business could generate over $30-35 million annually in EBITDA in about 2-3 years on about a $90 million EV.
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Certain factual and statistical (both historical and projected) industry and market data and other information contained herein was obtained by Osmium Partners from independent, third-party sources that it deems to be reliable. However, Osmium Partners has not independently verified any of such data or other information, or the reasonableness of the assumptions upon which such data and other information was based, and there can be no assurance as to the accuracy of such data and other information. Further, many of the statements and assertions contained herein reflect the belief of Osmium Partners, which belief may be based in whole or in part on such data and other information. The analyses provided may include certain statements, assumptions, estimates and projections prepared with respect to, among other things, the historical and anticipated operating performance of the companies. Such statements, assumptions, estimates, and projections reflect various assumptions by Osmium Partners concerning anticipated results that are inherently subject to significant economic, competitive, and other uncertainties and contingencies and have included solely for illustrative purposes. No representations, express or implied, are made as to the accuracy or completeness of such statements, assumptions, estimates or projections or with respect to any materials herein. Actual results may vary materially from the estimates and projected results contained herein. Past Osmium performance is not indicative of future results. Osmium Partners disclaims any obligation to update this letter. A portion of the Partnership’s assets may from time to time be invested in securities that have limited liquidity. The Partnership’s investment strategy is to make concentrated investments in what it views as its best ideas. The Offering Memorandum and Limited Partnership Agreement offers a comprehensive overview of the risk factors involved in investing with Osmium Partners. This communication may contain privileged and/or confidential information, and may also include certain proprietary opinions of Osmium Partners, LLC. It is intended solely for the use of the person or entity to which it is addressed. By receipt of this communication, and any attachments, recipient acknowledges that such information and opinions may change and recipient is on notice that recipient should determine if updated information or opinions are necessary. If you are not the intended recipient, you are strictly prohibited from disclosing, copying, distributing or using any of this information. If you received this communication in error, please contact the sender immediately and destroy the material in its entirety, whether electronic or hard copy. This communication is for informational purposes only. This is not intended as nor is it an offer, or solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any security, investment or other product.