This write-up is authored by Chris Colvin, portfolio manager of Breach Inlet Capital, based in Dallas, Texas.
Great Canadian Gaming (“GC”) is the largest casino operator in Canada and trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Prior to 2016, British Columbia (“BC”) casinos represented 80%+ of GC’s profits. Then, the Ontario gov’t decided to privatize its gaming operations, so it split its region into eight “bundles” and awarded them to the deserving bidder. GC won the first bundle, which was the East region. The East Bundle drove the company’s 2015 EBITDA 20% higher by 2017 and reduced its BC exposure to ~65%. The real game-changer occurred in late 2017/early 2018. GC was awarded the two largest bundles called the Greater Toronto Area (“GTA”) and West GTA (“WGTA”). Combined, we will refer to the two bundles as the “Toronto Bundles”. As outlined below, the Toronto Bundles could increase GC’s 2017 EBITDA – MI by ~150% and decrease its BC exposure to ~30% by 2022.
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This information is provided on a confidential basis and for informational purposes only. This material may not be reproduced, displayed, modified or distributed without the express prior written consent of Breach Inlet Capital Management, LLC (“BICM”). It is intended exclusively for the use of the person to whom it is delivered by BICM. This information is not complete and is only current as of the date hereof and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. This information is not investment advice and is not a recommendation to purchase or sell any specific security. All opinions herein are those of Chris Colvin, principal of BICM. Mr. Colvin and BICM do not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Mr. Colvin and clients of BICM have a position in the security presented, which may be increased or decreased at any time with no notice to the recipient of this information. This information does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell an interest in any private funds (a “Fund”) managed by BICM or any other security. Interests in a Fund can only be made pursuant to a private placement memorandum and associated documents. This presentation contains forward-looking statements that include statements, express or implied, regarding current expectations, estimates, projections, opinions, and beliefs of BICM, as well as assumptions on which those statements are based. Words such as “believes,” “expects,” “endeavors,” “anticipates,” “intends,” “plans,” “estimates,” “projects,” “assumes,” “potential,” “should,” and “objective,” and variations of such words and similar words, also identify forward-looking statements. Such statements are forward-looking in nature and involve a number of known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, including those described in this presentation, and accordingly, actual results may differ materially and no assurance can be given that the security presented will achieve the results discussed herein. Recipients are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements or examples included in this presentation, and BICM assumes no obligation to update any statements as a result of new information, subsequent events or any other circumstances. Such statements speak only as of the date that they were originally made.