Jacob Ma-Weaver of Cable Car Capital presented his in-depth investment thesis on Celgene contingent value rights (US: BMY-R) at Best Ideas 2020.

Thesis summary:

Celgene contingent value rights present an interesting exercise in subjective probability estimation and valuation. The rights will be worth either $0 or $9 per right in about one year’s time. Due to structural and technical factors, recent trading levels may discount more risk to upcoming FDA approval decisions than warranted.

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About the instructor:

Jacob Ma-Weaver manages Cable Car Capital, a registered investment adviser in San Francisco that is general partner to The Funicular Fund. Prior to founding Cable Car, Mr. Ma-Weaver was a generalist analyst at Amici Capital (Porter Orlin). He previously worked at Dodge & Cox and McKinsey. Mr. Ma-Weaver graduated from Columbia University with a BA in Comparative Literature & Society and an MA in Statistics. He is a CFA charterholder.