Kaspi: E-Commerce, Fintech, and Payments Leader in Kazakhstan

Javier López Bernardo of BrightGate Capital presented his in-depth investment thesis on Kaspi KZ (UK: KSPI) at Best Ideas 2022.

Thesis summary:

Kaspi KZ is the leading Kazakh e-commerce company, with unassailable positions in fintech and payments processing. The three business lines are inextricably linked through Kaspi’s super app, an ecosystem that enjoys one of the best user engagements in the world and a very high penetration in the total Kazakh population.

Well-run platform businesses are extremely profitable and enjoy high barriers to entry, underpinned by strong network effects and winner-takes-all dynamics.

Kaspi has an undemanding valuation for long-term minded investors. At $119 per share, the company has a market cap of roughly $21 billion and a P/BV multiple of 22x. In light of Kaspi’s ROE of 116%, that implies a 4.8% yield assuming no growth.

Kaspi has still ample growth avenues for the next decade, which together can sustain 13% CAGR, or 16% if the international expansion is successful, with multiples on initial investment ranging between 4x and 5x over a decade.

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About the instructor:

Javier López Bernardo is currently Portfolio Manager (equities and high yield) at BrightGate Capital SGIIC, an independent asset management boutique company based in Madrid, Spain. He holds a Bachelor in Business Administration (major in finance) by the Universidad Complutense de Madrid, a Master in Corporate Finance and Investment Banking by the IEB and a Master in Economics by Kingston University, where he also earned a Ph.D. in Economics. His academic research on equity markets and growth theory has been published in leading international journals. Additionally, he has been a full-scholarship holder for two years by the Ramón Areces Foundation and he is a CFA charterholder. He is a lecturer for the CFA program and he also regularly delivers lectures in commodities and value investing.

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