Louisiana-Pacific: Share Cannibal with Hidden Growth Engine

Kyle Campbell of Greenhaven Road Capital presented his investment thesis on Louisiana-Pacific (US: NPX) at Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2025.

Thesis summary:

Louisiana-Pacific presents a compelling investment opportunity as it transitions from a commodity-driven manufacturer to a high-margin, value-added building materials leader and is uniquely positioned to capitalize on secular housing tailwinds and operational transformation. The company’s strategic shift — converting commodity OSB mills to premium siding production and expanding its portfolio of value-added OSB products — has already driven value-add OSB from 32% to 52% of total volume over the past decade, with further growth expected.

LPX’s siding segment, anchored by the LP SmartSide and ExpertFinish brands, is a margin expansion story and is set to play out after recent capacity expansions, with research indicating segment EBITDA margins should reach or exceed 35%. The OSB business, historically cyclical, is becoming more resilient and profitable as value-added products take share, reducing exposure to commodity price swings.

LPX’s disciplined capital allocation — prioritizing high-ROI organic investments, aggressive share repurchases, and dividend growth — demonstrates strong shareholder alignment. With robust competitive moats in supply chain exclusivity, product installation efficiency, and technical sales expertise, LPX is well-insulated from new entrants. The macro backdrop of persistent U.S. housing underbuilding acts as a powerful demand catalyst, likely to overpower short-term interest rate concerns.

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About the instructor:

Kyle Campbell is a Senior Analyst at Greenhaven Road Capital with a strong background in finance, accounting, and data analysis. Prior to joining Greenhaven Road in 2021, he was the CFO of a single-family office, where he led a comprehensive overhaul of financial reporting systems and made capital allocation decisions across both public and private investments. Before entering the finance world, Kyle spent 14 years in the US Air Force, serving in various intelligence roles that supported special operations around the globe. He holds an MBA from Columbia Business School and is a graduate of their prestigious Value Investing Program.

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