Michael Fritzell of Asian Century Stocks presented his in-depth investment thesis on Major Cineplex (Thailand: MAJOR) at Asian Investing Summit 2025.
Thesis summary:
Major Cineplex is the dominant cinema operator in Thailand with a commanding 70% market share and a recognizable stable of brands, including EGV and Paragon Cineplex. Run by founder and 30% shareholder Vicha Poolvaraluk, the company offers a diversified revenue base across ticket sales, concessions, advertising, and ancillary entertainment. While severely impacted by COVID-19, Hollywood strikes, and streaming competition, MAJOR appears to be on the verge of a multi-year earnings recovery, aided by a strong 2025–2026 film slate and strategic expansion.
Management has outlined a bullish outlook, forecasting a rebound in attendance to pre-pandemic levels of 44 million by 2027 and announcing plans to open 35–40 new screens in 2025. These new screens are expected to generate ROICs around 15%. Meanwhile, Thailand remains severely under-screened, with only one screen per 58,000 people compared to one per 7,500 in the U.S., highlighting long-term growth potential. The 2025 Hollywood pipeline, alongside a robust Thai movie lineup, marks a sharp contrast to the content drought of prior years and positions the company for meaningful revenue and margin recovery.
MAJOR recently traded at 11.6x forward P/E and 1.0x EV/sales, a steep discount to regional peers such as PVR Inox (India) and Wanda Film (China), despite a cleaner balance sheet and superior market share. Prior to COVID-19, the stock averaged a 19x P/E and delivered consistent operating margins in the 10–14% range. Though current gross profits remain 30% below peak, normalized box office trends and higher ticket prices should close the gap. Share buybacks have also accelerated, with the share count shrinking by roughly 15% in the past year alone.
Risks include shorter theatrical windows and streaming competition, as well as related-party transactions tied to Studio M, a Thai film company controlled by Poolvaraluk. Still, with a base case anchored in industry normalization, stronger content, and capital returns, MAJOR presents a compelling small-cap opportunity in Southeast Asia’s under-penetrated cinema market. Investors could see significant upside if attendance rebounds and the company re-rates even modestly toward historical valuation levels.
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About the instructor:
Michael Fritzell is a Singapore-based analyst and the author of Asian Century Stocks. He has worked as an analyst and co-portfolio manager in Asia for well over a decade.
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