Why Greenhaven Road Capital Decided to Invest in Nintendo

This article by MOI Global instructor Scott Miller is excerpted from a letter of Greenhaven Road Partners Fund.

Historically, Nintendo has been a “feast or famine” company that has seen its fortunes rise and fall dramatically depending on the release cycle and reception of gaming platform consoles and the attached games. The gaming console business is effectively a razor + razor blade business. Traditionally, consoles have been sold for very low margins with higher margins on games. For the past 30 years, consoles had a life of 5-6 years before the next generation was released. Videogame consoles are a capital- and research-intensive treadmill where success of the next was by no means guaranteed by the success of the current. Each successive console has faced “chicken and egg” challenges since, generally, developers only want to develop for new platforms when its installed base reaches a sufficient scale to make their efforts worthwhile and consumers only want to buy consoles that have the deepest bench of top-quality games. If either the consumers or the game developers don’t show up, the console manufacturer suffers the double whammy: lackluster sales of not just the console but also the games made for it. To put this in context, Nintendo’s sales fell over 75% from 2009 to 2015 as the Wii U flopped due to the company’s historically minimal marketing efforts.

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Disclaimer: This document, which is being provided on a confidential basis, shall not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of any offer to buy which may only be made at the time a qualified offeree receives a confidential private placement memorandum (“PPM”), which contains important information (including investment objective, policies, risk factors, fees, tax implications and relevant qualifications), and only in those jurisdictions where permitted by law. In the case of any inconsistency between the descriptions or terms in this document and the PPM, the PPM shall control. These securities shall not be offered or sold in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful until the requirements of the laws of such jurisdiction have been satisfied. This document is not intended for public use or distribution. While all the information prepared in this document is believed to be accurate, Greenhaven Road Capital Partners Fund LP and MVM Funds LLC makes no express warranty as to the completeness or accuracy, nor can it accept responsibility for errors, appearing in the document. An investment in the fund/partnership is speculative and involves a high degree of risk. Opportunities for withdrawal/redemption and transferability of interests are restricted, so investors may not have access to capital when it is needed. There is no secondary market for the interests and none is expected to develop. The portfolio is under the sole investment authority of the general partner/investment manager. A portion of the underlying trades executed may take place on non-U.S. exchanges. Leverage may be employed in the portfolio, which can make investment performance volatile. An investor should not make an investment, unless it is prepared to lose all or a substantial portion of its investment. The fees and expenses charged in connection with this investment may be higher than the fees and expenses of other investment alternatives and may offset profits. There is no guarantee that the investment objective will be achieved. Moreover, the past performance of the investment team should not be construed as an indicator of future performance. Any projections, market outlooks or estimates in this document are forward-looking statements and are based upon certain assumptions. Other events which were not taken into account may occur and may significantly affect the returns or performance of the fund/partnership. Any projections, outlooks or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. The enclosed material is confidential and not to be reproduced or redistributed in whole or in part without the prior written consent of Greenhaven Road Capital Partners Fund LP and MVM Funds LLC. The information in this material is only current as of the date indicated, and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. Statements concerning financial market trends are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate. Any statements of opinion constitute only current opinions of Greenhaven Road Capital Partners Fund LP and MVM Funds LLC, which are subject to change and which Greenhaven Road Capital Partners Fund LP and MVM Funds LLC do not undertake to update. Due to, among other things, the volatile nature of the markets, and an investment in the fund/partnership may only be suitable for certain investors. Parties should independently investigate any investment strategy or manager, and should consult with qualified investment, legal and tax professionals before making any investment. The fund/partnership is not registered under the investment company act of 1940, as amended, in reliance on an exemption thereunder. Interests in the fund/partnership have not been registered under the securities act of 1933, as amended, or the securities laws of any state and are being offered and sold in reliance on exemptions from the registration requirements of said act and laws.