Will Thomson of Massif Capital presented his in-depth investment thesis on Harbour Energy (UK: HBR) at Best Ideas 2025.

Thesis summary:

Harbour Energy presents a compelling investment opportunity in the European Independent E&P sector. Through strategic M&A, HBR management has transformed the firm into one of the largest independent oil and gas producers globally, with a diversified asset base and robust financial profile.

The recent acquisition of Wintershall Dea’s non-Russian assets significantly reduces HBR’s reliance on UK assets and expands its presence in markets like Norway and Argentina. This geographic diversification, coupled with an increased focus on natural gas production, positions the company well for the energy transition.

HBR’s financial outlook is attractive, with projected free cash flow yields of 15-20% annually between 2025 and 2030. The company’s investment-grade credit rating and manageable debt levels further underscore its financial stability.

Based on various commodity price scenarios, we value HBR at 548 GBp per share, representing a 105% potential return for investors.

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About the instructor:

Will Thomson is a Managing Partner at Massif Capital, a value-oriented investment partnership focused on global opportunities in energy, basic materials and industrials. Massif invests principally in businesses with long lived assets that generate predictable cash flows and require not only capital allocation acumen from management but also a keen focus on operational excellence. The investment practice is primarily concerned with the nature of risk and value as it relates to protecting, enhancing and deploying the irreplaceable capital of the firm’s investors into a concentrated portfolio of economically productive assets.

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