Zeke Ashton on Building a Low-Risk Portfolio

Zeke Ashton of Centaur Capital Partners spoke eloquently on the topic of value investing and risk management at the Value Investing Congress in Pasadena. We found Zeke’s presentation enlightening and asked him to elaborate on some of his key points. It’s our pleasure to bring you an exclusive conversation with Zeke.

Before we proceed to the interview, we should point out that Zeke’s approach to risk management has worked. In 2008, the Centaur Value Fund was down 6.9%, trouncing the 37.1% and 40.0% declines of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes.

MOI Global: You recently spoke on the topic of value investing and risk management. The “backdrop” was the somewhat surprising fact that a number of prominent value investors suffered debilitating losses in the market collapse of 2008 and early 2009. Adherence to “margin of safety” principles apparently didn’t help. Why?

Zeke Ashton: I think that is a very good question, and I don’t think there is any one easy answer. Part of it was simply because very few investors were prepared for such an extreme negative scenario as the one that ultimately played out. I know we didn’t foresee things deteriorating as much as they did. What transpired in late 2008 and early 2009 was so far outside of the range of experience for most people that it didn’t seem like a plausible scenario twelve months before. With perfect 20/20 hindsight, of course, it is easy to see the warning signs that were present, but most investors simply continued to do the things which had rewarded them in the past, not knowing that this time might be different.

We and many other value investors have historically been rewarded for buying in times of fear and uncertainty, as well as for purchasing stocks that were cheap relative to asset values or normalized earnings power. However, in 2008 it wasn’t enough to buy stocks that looked cheap based on low multiples to book value or normalized earnings. Many companies, particularly in the financial sector, won’t get the chance to recover to normalized earnings because they got wiped out or were forced to dilute their shareholders to the extent that the losses are effectively permanent. In the end, it appears to me that when faced with an extreme environment like 2008 and early 2009, there are really only two things that can save you: the luck or skill to see it coming and get out of the way, or a portfolio structure and risk management approach that is specifically designed to promote survival in a catastrophic scenario that you didn’t see coming. I feel very fortunate that we had a portfolio that was able to take some hits and survive to play another day.

MOI: You have stated that top-down risk management policies “can make the difference between survival and failure in a year like 2008.” What do those top-down policies look like at Centaur? What factors would cause them to differ from one investment manager to the next?

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