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CBD: Undervalued Latin American Holding Company With Catalyst

January 18, 2023 in Audio, Best Ideas 2023, Best Ideas 2023 Featured, Best Ideas Conference, Diary, Discover Great Ideas Podcast, Equities, Ideas, Member Podcasts

Amit Wadhwaney of Moerus Capital Management presented his investment thesis on Companhia Brasileira de Distribuicao SA (Brazil: PCAR4, US: CBD) at Best Ideas 2023.

Thesis summary:

CBD is best known for its flagship brand, Grupo Pão de Açúcar (GPA), a Brazilian grocer-led retail business, which includes grocery stores, convenience stores, and gas stations, as well as significant e-commerce operations.

CBD is also the dominant shareholder of Grupo Éxito (Exito), a listed Colombian food-led retailer, owning over 96% of the shares outstanding. In addition to its controlling stake in Exito, CBD is also a large shareholder (owning a 34% stake) of Cnova N.V., a French e-commerce retailer.

In total, across its subsidiaries, CBD has a network encompassing 1,500+ stores and e-commerce and brick and mortar retail operations across five countries.

A perceived lower growth profile following a 2021 spinoff of the fast-growing Assai Cash & Carry business, the challenging macroeconomic and political environment in Brazil and Colombia, and the corporate complexity of an entity that has assets in five countries across three publicly listed entities, have resulted in subdued interest from investors in owning CBD shares. This has contributed to a stock that Amit believes is meaningfully undervalued.

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About the instructor:

Amit Wadhwaney is a Portfolio Manager and Co-Founding Partner at Moerus Capital Management LLC, and the founding manager of the Moerus Worldwide Value Fund. Mr. Wadhwaney has over 30 years of experience researching and analyzing investment opportunities in developed, emerging, and frontier markets worldwide, and has managed global investment portfolios since 1996. Prior to founding Moerus, Mr. Wadhwaney was a Portfolio Manager and Partner at Third Avenue Management LLC. Mr. Wadhwaney founded the international business at Third Avenue and was the founding manager of the Third Avenue Global Value Fund, LP, the Third Avenue Emerging Markets Fund, LP, and the Third Avenue International Value Fund. Earlier in his career, Mr. Wadhwaney was first a securities analyst, and then Director of Research at M.J. Whitman LLC, a New York-based broker-dealer. Prior to joining M.J. Whitman, Mr. Wadhwaney was a paper and forest products analyst at Bunting Warburg, a Canadian brokerage firm. He began his career at Domtar, a Canadian forest products company. Mr. Wadhwaney holds an M.B.A. in Finance from The University of Chicago. He also holds a B.A. with honors and an M.A. in Economics from Concordia University; at Concordia, he was awarded the Sun Life Prize and the Concordia University Fellow in Economics, and he subsequently taught economics classes there. He also holds B.S. degrees in Chemical Engineering and Mathematics from the University of Minnesota.

The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Eaton: Well-Managed, Competitively Advantaged Industrial Leader

January 18, 2023 in Audio, Best Ideas 2023, Best Ideas Conference, Diary, Discover Great Ideas Podcast, Equities, Ideas, Member Podcasts

Christopher Rossbach of J. Stern & Co. presented his in-depth investment thesis on Eaton Corporation (US: ETN) at Best Ideas 2023.

Thesis summary:

Eaton, the US power management company, is a key beneficiary of the shift towards electrification. During its annual analyst day, held in March 2021, Eaton outlined its vision for the years ahead, as the transition to a low-carbon economy accelerates and as “everything as a grid” becomes a reality. As the sources of electricity become increasingly renewable and the uses of power more electric, the electrical industry’s role will gain in importance, becoming the central switchboard that powers the future.

“Everything as a grid” translates into “homes as a grid”, “offices as grid” and “datacentres as a grid”, fuelling demand for edge computing and distributed IT and leading to dramatic changes in the electrical value chain. Eaton’s decades-long domain expertise, rich IP, extensive network of partners and distributors and large installed base place it well in this rapidly evolving market.

In fact, Eaton participates across the lifecycle of different energy transition projects. EV charging infrastructure is expected to be a revenue-generating USD 0.7-1.2 billion opportunity by 2030, with Eaton looking to participate in 12-20,000 EV multi-charging projects in Europe and the US by 2030.

Larger-scale infrastructure projects will add additional revenue opportunities, with examples including flagship highway high-voltage projects in the US, Canada and China. Microgrids are expected to be a USD 40 billion market, supporting carbon footprint reduction targets as well as enhancing grid resilience, translating in a USD 0.4-0.7 billion opportunity for Eaton by 2030, with the company already participating in over 600 projects to date.

Finally, building applications is as a key opportunity, with Eaton tapping into demand for zero-energy buildings. The company believes it can generate USD 5.7 billion in revenues by 2025 in this area, a 30% increase from recent levels.

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About the instructor:

Christopher Rossbach is a Co-Founder, Managing Partner and Chief Investment Officer of J. Stern & Co., a private investment partnership based in London and Zurich. Chris is also the portfolio manager of the Firm’s World Stars Global Equity Fund.

Stern invests with a long-term, fundamental, value-based approach and manages money for families, trusts, charities, endowments, institutions, and other long-term investors.

Chris holds a BA from Yale University, where he was a Humanities major and awarded the Scott prize (1873) for modern languages, and a MBA from Harvard Business School.

He is Chair of the Warburg Charitable Trust of the Warburg Institute, a member of the Investments Committee of the University of London, both in London, and a member of the Atlantik-Brücke, an association of German business and political leaders, in Berlin.

Together with Jerome Stern, Chris co-founded Stern in 2012. Before that, Chris founded Merian Capital where he was Managing Partner and Portfolio Manager. Worked at firms including, Magnetar Capital’s, Lansdowne Partners and Perry Capital. Before moving to London, Chris started his career in investment banking at Lazard Frères in New York.

The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Trigano: Family-Controlled European Leader in Leisure Vehicles

January 18, 2023 in Audio, Best Ideas 2023, Best Ideas 2023 Featured, Best Ideas Conference, Diary, Discover Great Ideas Podcast, Equities, Ideas, Member Podcasts

Jean Pierre Verster of Protea Capital Management presented his investment thesis on Trigano (France: TRI) at Best Ideas 2023.

Thesis summary:

Trigano is the European leader in leisure vehicles. It designs and manufactures caravans, motorhomes, trailers, garden equipment, and camping gear.

The company was founded in 1935 by Edgar Trigano. The following year, in the wake of the political victory of the Popular Front, French people were able to take paid annual leave for the first time. Trigano’s canvas tents, the “Canadienne” (a square blue and orange tent), became an instant hit and sold by the millions. In 1981, Francois Feuillet joined the company and soon diversified Trigano into the production and distribution of motorhomes. Feuillet purchased the whole company in 1990 and subsequently sold a minority stake via an IPO in 1998 in order to finance a string of acquisitions.

Feuillet family members maintain majority control of this EUR 2.4 billion market cap business. Trigano shares have returned ~30% per annum over the past ten years but still offer significant upside. The shares trade at a single-digit P/E multiple even though sustainable ROE is estimated at ~20%.

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About the instructor:

Jean Pierre Verster is the founder & CEO of Protea Capital Management, an investment management firm headquartered in Johannesburg, South Africa. He was part of the investment team at 36ONE Asset Management, which manages the largest hedge fund in South Africa, from 2010 to 2016. He partnered with Fairtree Asset Management thereafter to launch the Protea range of hedge funds. In 2019, he founded Protea Capital Management as a stand-alone investment management business. Since 2015, Jean Pierre also serves as an independent non-executive director at Capitec Bank, the largest retail bank in South Africa by number of clients, where he is chairman of the audit committee.

The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Admiral Group: Largest UK Auto Insurer, With Unique Culture

January 17, 2023 in Audio, Best Ideas 2023, Best Ideas 2023 Featured, Best Ideas Conference, Diary, Discover Great Ideas Podcast, Equities, Ideas, Member Podcasts

Ben Beneche of Tourbillon Investment Partnership presented his in-depth investment thesis on Admiral Group (UK: ADM) at Best Ideas 2023.

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About the instructor:

Ben Beneche is Co-Founder and Portfolio Manager of the Tourbillon Investment Partnership; a global, unconstrained, concentrated equity fund launching in Q1 2023. Previously, Ben was Senior Portfolio Manager and Co-Lead of international equites at Pictet Asset Management for 10 years. He managed several billion dollars on behalf of a largely institutional client base with accolades including a 5-star Morningstar rating in 2018. He began his career in 2008 as an analyst focused on US equities and the energy sector.

Ben has a degree in Economics and Economic History from York University (1st class honors) and is a CFA charterholder.

He bought his first stock when he was 16 and hasn’t looked back.

The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Rogers: Improving Operations, Orphaned Due to Scuttled Deal

January 17, 2023 in Audio, Best Ideas 2023, Best Ideas 2023 Featured, Best Ideas Conference, Diary, Discover Great Ideas Podcast, Equities, Ideas, Member Podcasts, Transcripts

Christopher Karlin of Aquitania Capital Management presented his investment thesis on Rogers Corporation (US: ROG) at Best Ideas 2023.

Thesis summary:

Rogers manufactures high-performance engineered materials solutions for a variety of high-growth end-markets.

The company is a classic “orphaned stock” following a scuttled merger with DuPont due to lack of Chinese regulatory approval. Rogers lost its traditional shareholder base during the merger, analysts stopped following the company, no earnings calls have been held since mid-2021, and in the last year, supply chain issues caused profitability to decline.

The company has a healthy growth outlook and a solid balance sheet and should be able to return to historical profit margins in 2023-2024. Growth should accelerate in subsequent years. The expected performance turnaround, combined with a resumption of the company’s investor relations efforts, should prevent the stock from remaining orphaned for long.

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About the instructor:

Christopher Karlin has been in the investment business since 1991. Prior to founding Aquitania Capital Management in 2012, Christopher held positions as a Research Analyst and Portfolio Manager at First Pacific Advisors, Kestrel Investment Management and Fairview Capital Investment Management. Christopher interned with Farallon Capital Management while pursuing his MBA. He began his career with Wells Fargo Nikko Investment Advisors which later became a part of Blackrock. Christopher received his BBA from the University of Wisconsin in 1990 his MBA from Yale University in 1998 and has held the CFA designation since 1994.

The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Amazon: Dominant, Wide-Moat Megacap at Attractive Valuation

January 17, 2023 in Audio, Best Ideas 2023, Best Ideas 2023 Featured, Best Ideas Conference, Diary, Discover Great Ideas Podcast, Equities, Ideas, Member Podcasts, Transcripts

Edward Chang of Pledge Capital presented his investment thesis on Amazon (US: AMZN) at Best Ideas 2023.

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About the instructor:

Edward Chang is the founder and Portfolio Manager at Pledge Capital. He is a graduate of New York University Leonard N. Stern School of Business. Before founding Pledge Capital in 2016, he worked on the sell side at UBS Equity Research covering consumer retail companies. Pledge Capital is an investment firm headquartered in New York. The firm has a flexible mandate but focuses on small and mid-cap companies. The firm seeks to identify and make concentrated investments in a select group of quality businesses believed to be at growth inflection points.

The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

SAP: SaaS Transition, Acquired Business Growth, Margin Expansion

January 17, 2023 in Audio, Best Ideas 2023, Best Ideas 2023 Featured, Best Ideas Conference, Diary, Discover Great Ideas Podcast, Equities, Ideas, Member Podcasts

Frank Fischer of Shareholder Value Management presented his investment thesis on SAP (Germany: SAP, US: SAP) at Best Ideas 2023.

Thesis summary:

SAP is a global leader in the enterprise resource planning (ERP) software market, with a focus on large corporates.

Frank’s thesis consists of a few key building blocks:

  • The S4 HANA transition
  • Continued strong growth in acquired businesses
  • Some degree of margin expansion

The S4 HANA transition is both

  • a migration of SAP R3 customers towards the new version S4 of SAP’s flagship ERP software
  • a further migration of clients from a historically on prem environment to a cloud environment, in various forms (hybrid, public cloud, private cloud)

This transition should bring a strong revenue and profit uplift, not dissimilar to other cloud transitions. Predictability is relatively high, and it appears likely that a large portion of customers will stick with SAP and convert, but the pace of the conversion is unclear. In past years, SAP had acquired fast-growing, cloud-native companies, including Qualtrics, Ariba, Concur, and Fieldglass.

The second aspect of the thesis is that these businesses will keep growing nicely for quite a few years to come. Some of them, e.g., Ariba and Concur, suffered during the Covid years, but with the recovery of corporate travel should resume the previous strong trends.

Third, Frank assumes some margin expansion. SAP technically has a lot of margin potential if we compare their profile to peers such as Oracle; but actually only the realization of a little bit is part of Frank’s thesis.

A final aspect is that SAP, with their focus primarily on large corporate customers, the critical nature of their systems for the customers and the large share of recurring revenues, is a relatively predictable and defensive pick.

At the recent price of roughly €100 per share, Frank estimates a five-year total shareholder return of 11% annually.

Watch this session:

slide presentation audio recording

About the instructor:

Frank Fischer, born in 1964, is the CEO of Shareholder Value Management AG, where he is Chief Investment Officer (CIO). Frank Fischer is also a board member of Shareholder Value Beteiligungen AG. Until the end of 2005, Frank Fischer was managing director of Standard & Poor’s Fund Services (formerly Micropal GmbH) and was responsible for investment fund information and ratings.

After completing his training as a banker at the Hessische Landesbank, he completed a degree in business administration at the University of Frankfurt with a degree in business administration. Mr. Fischer is married and has two children. He is the founder and director of the non-profit foundation Starke Lunge.

The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Glenn Surowiec Shares His Thoughts on Intelligent Investing in 2023

January 17, 2023 in Audio, Best Ideas 2023, Best Ideas Conference, Diary, Equities, Ideas, Invest Intelligently Podcast, Member Podcasts, Transcripts

Glenn Surowiec of GDS Investments shared his thoughts on intelligent investing in 2023 in a conversation with John Mihaljevic at Best Ideas 2023.

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About the instructor:

Glenn Surowiec founded GDS Investments in 2012. From 2001 to 2012, he worked for Alsin Capital Management, Inc. as an equity research analyst (2001-2003), co-portfolio manager (2003-2008), and portfolio manager (2008-2012). Before joining ACM, Glenn worked for Enron Corp. as a derivatives structuring manager, and for Commerce Bancorp (now TD Bank) as a real estate credit analyst.

​Glenn has a B.A. in Management (Accounting concentration) from Gettysburg College and an MBA (Finance concentration) from Southern Methodist University. He graduated in the top 10% of his MBA class and participated in study-abroad programs both as an undergraduate (Seville, Spain) and graduate student (Melbourne, Australia). Glenn’s interests (outside investing) include running, cycling, golfing and spending time with his wife and three teenage boys.

The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Thor Industries: Well-Managed Leader in Oligopolistic, Rational Industry

January 17, 2023 in Audio, Best Ideas 2023, Best Ideas 2023 Featured, Best Ideas Conference, Diary, Discover Great Ideas Podcast, Equities, Ideas, Member Podcasts

Javier López Bernardo of BrightGate Capital presented his in-depth investment thesis on Thor Industries (US: THO) at Best Ideas 2023.

Thesis summary:

Thor Industries is a US-based manufacturer of recreational vehicles (RVs), both trailers and motorhomes. After a decade in which the company has pursued a well-executed acquisition policy to consolidate the industry, THOR is the undisputed leader by market share and product breadth. The RV manufacturing industry presents attractive characteristics for investors with a long-term time horizon. In addition, the management team (along with the company’s chairman emeritus) is aligned with shareholders and has extensive experience in the industry.

Main points of the investment thesis

Although a cyclical industry, the RV sector is a niche market with a stable oligopolistic structure, a long and consistent history of strong shareholder value creation and virtually no competition from foreign producers. These characteristics have meant that THOR has not posted a loss-making year in the past three decades.

THOR has leading positions in both the towable and motorized vehicle segments, with market shares in 2022 of 41% and 48%, respectively. Although the RV manufacturing process is not highly automated, so economies of scale from higher production levels are modest at best, the size helps in dealing with distributors and suppliers and establishing best practices. THOR also has a leading position in the European market thanks to the acquisition of Erwin Hymer Group (EHG) in 2019. The European market is much more fragmented than the U.S. market and could be a source of future growth for THOR.

THOR has a strong balance sheet and an attractive shareholder remuneration program, consisting of a growing dividend and a $600 million share repurchase authorization through 2025 (approximately 15% of current market cap).

THOR’s stock valuation discounts very pessimistic scenarios going forward. At $75 per share, the company has an EV of approximately $5.5 billion, implying EV/NOA’22 and EV/NOI’22 multiples of 1.1x and 5.7x, respectively. On a leveraged basis, THOR trades at a P/BV of 1.1x and a P/E’22 of 4.4x. Given that THOR’s average return on net operating assets (RNOA) has been around 20% over the past decade (ROE of 19%), and residual earnings have grown at a good pace, the level of discount at which the shares are trading is excessive. Assuming an 8% discount rate (EV), a 2% growth rate in residual earnings and much lower future RNOA (14%), would yield a target price of $160, implying a return on equity of 15.4% in perpetuity.

Downside risks

  • Long-term demand in the US stabilizes below 350k units, either due to lack of interest or because the economic slowdown is longer than expected.
  • The RV components industry has become very consolidated in the last decade (LCI Industries, Patrick Industries), and while the relationship is good, further consolidation could erode THOR’s bargaining power.
  • Although the RV distribution industry is currently highly fragmented, there is being a flurry of consolidation by some players (RV Retailer, Camping World) that could weaken THOR’s bargaining power in the long run.
  • In the long term, the introduction of autonomous RVs may spark interest from auto OEMs to participate in the RV industry, increasing competition.

Upside drivers

  • Share repurchases at (or below) these levels.
  • THOR keeps acquiring European companies at reasonable valuations to consolidate the industry.
  • Additional upstream acquisitions components at reasonable valuations.

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About the instructor:

Javier López Bernardo is currently Portfolio Manager (equities and high yield) at BrightGate Capital SGIIC, an independent asset management boutique company based in Madrid, Spain.

He holds a Bachelor in Business Administration (major in finance) by the Universidad Complutense de Madrid, a Master in Corporate Finance and Investment Banking by the IEB and a Master in Economics by Kingston University, where he also earned a Ph.D. in Economics. His academic research on equity markets and growth theory has been published in leading international journals.

Additionally, he has been a full-scholarship holder for two years by the Ramón Areces Foundation and he is a CFA charterholder. He is a lecturer for the CFA program and he also regularly delivers lectures in commodities, value investing and behavioral finance.

The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Three NCAV Bargains: Car Mate Mfg, Daiken Co, Playmates Toys

January 17, 2023 in Audio, Best Ideas 2023, Best Ideas Conference, Diary, Discover Great Ideas Podcast, Equities, Ideas, Member Podcasts

Juan Matienzo of Mercor Investment Group presented his investment theses on Car Mate Mfg Co Ltd (Japan: 7297), Daiken Co Ltd (Japan: 5900), and Playmates Toys Limited (HK: 0869) at Best Ideas 2023.

Snapshot:

Car Mate and Daiken Co. are profitable Japanese manufacturers that trade for large discounts to their liquidation values.

Playmates Toys is a Hong Kong toy seller that trades for less than the value of its cash and securities minus all liabilities.

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About the instructor:

Juan F. Matienzo is the Managing Partner of Mercor Investment Group, where he is responsible for the portfolio. Juan follows deep value principles, and prefers companies that trade for less than liquidating value. He is also an amateur painter. He has a BBA and a Master of Clinical Psychology from UDLAP, and an MBA from the Harvard Business School.

The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.
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