Liberty Global: European/Latin American Cable on Sale

December 17, 2017 in Best Ideas Conference, Equities, Ideas

This article is authored by MOI Global instructor Patrick Brennan, founder and portfolio manager of Brennan Asset Management, based in Napa, CA, which utilizes a concentrated value investing strategy. Patrick is an instructor at Best Ideas 2018, the fully online conference featuring more than one hundred expert instructors from the MOI Global membership community.

In a market that has moved in a single direction over the past two years, it has often been difficult for value investors to find opportunities. That said, we see two interesting opportunities within the Liberty Media complex. Liberty Global (LGI) is a dominant cable operator in Europe with its five largest markets in the UK, Netherlands, Belgium, Germany and Switzerland. In 2015, LGI created a tracking stock (LILAK) that corresponds to the value of its Puerto Rican and Chilean cable systems. LILAK subsequently executed a complicated and controversial merger with Cable & Wireless (CWC) in 2016, partially funding the deal with LGI stock. LGI shareholders hated that their stock was used to finance a purchase that many would find difficult to hold. Meanwhile, LILAK shareholders suffered significant losses because of LILAK’s poor initial execution following the closing of the transaction. Both LGI and LILAK have frustrated shareholder bases that have suffered as the broader market has risen over 35% the past two years. But, when LILAK is formally separated from LGI later this month and becomes an asset-backed company, sentiment may change. This separation, along with company specific catalysts, creates a compelling opportunity for those willing to dig into the complicated names.

Before discussing the specifics of each company, it is worth first stepping back to look at the cable industry from a higher level. Within cable markets, there are typically only a couple of companies that offer similar services. Often, the incumbent provider is a former government entity and/or monopolist and therefore is frequently less nimble/efficient versus cable competitors. Cable companies’ initial investments in coaxial/fiber offered speeds superior to incumbent carriers’ copper networks and the value of the pipe already in the ground increased as zoning rights, work permits, and franchise politics became more difficult over time. So, an industry characterized by barriers to entry/limited number of competitors/pricing power certainly makes an interesting investment backdrop.

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Value Investing in the Age of Artificial Intelligence

December 17, 2017 in Best Ideas Conference, Diary

This article is authored by MOI Global instructor Jean Pierre Verster, portfolio manager at Fairtree Capital in South Africa, where he manages the “Protea” range of equity long/short hedge funds. Jean Pierre is an instructor at Best Ideas 2018, the fully online conference featuring more than one hundred expert instructors from the MOI Global membership community.

The 4th Industrial Revolution seems to be taking its toll on the active investment management industry, with many high-profile funds underperforming in the last few years, and some even closing down completely. The increased use of Artificial Intelligence (AI), Machine Learning and Big Data Analytics is seeing a seismic shift in assets away from traditional asset managers towards passive and quantitative strategies. One could rightly ask: Is active investing, and by extension value investing, dead?

The practical definition of ‘Value Investing’ has morphed over the years, away from Benjamin Graham’s classic methods of statistically computing intrinsic value with reference to historical financial metrics such as tangible book value and a public company’s long-run P/E ratio. Investors have since expanded their cognitive toolbox to include mental models such as moats, brand value, growth (i.e. the underappreciated power of long-term compounding), lollapalooza effects, reflexivity, alternative leverage (e.g. float), concentration/focus, the advantages of permanent capital, cognizance of macro-economic influences and a host of behavioural finance concepts.

Today, the value investing community is a broad church of investment styles and less dogmatic in nature. What binds us together is the application of an intelligent process which identifies opportunities to purchase an asset at a significant discount to intrinsic value, thereby ensuring a margin of safety in the process. This principle won’t go out of fashion, but we need to acknowledge that certain applications thereof are under threat.

The wide availability of easily searchable financial databases has rendered statistically attractive opportunities like net-nets just about non-existent. Smart Beta funds have industrialised the systematic process of identifying value investing attributes that outperform. Natural language processing algorithms immediately account for justified prices adjustments on the back of major company announcements and macro changes. Big data analytics is leading the race for informational edge, and AI is identifying causations we weren’t even aware of. Not only do computers have a speed advantage, but the unemotional and accurately probabilistic use of these techniques are clear advantages when compares to human decision-making. Traditional value investing is under threat, but the increased use of technology is also an opportunity for those value investors who decide to utilise it to their advantage.

Our own experience in embracing technology to assist with our value-based investment process might be instructive: Over the course of the last decade we have, through abductive reasoning, developed an automated analytical process whereby we utilise algorithms to forecast a company’s individual accounting line items, leading to a probabilistic forecast of the next 4 years’ full financial statements. We then utilise the Du Pont and Gordon Growth models to translate those future financial statements into fair value, which we can then compare to the current share price in order to identify shares trading at a significant discount to intrinsic value. This is combined with significant human judgment to consider whether future financial statements based on past patterns in fundamental data is indeed realistic. It is not a pure quantitative process nor just our subjective assessment of the company’s future fundamentals, but rather a ‘quantamental’ process which combines the ingenuity of the human brain with the scale of computer power.

The approach has been applied successfully in our local South African equity market (a sophisticated market, comparable to developed markets rather than emerging markets from a regulatory and functional perspective) since February 2011, with real money, in an equity long/short strategy. We have significantly outperformed the broad market index over this time, and in September 2017 we launched a global fund to apply the same process across developed equity markets globally, after prior testing with internal capital and extensive travelling and reading to inform the qualitative part of our analysis. Our ‘quantamental’ process is by no means the holy grail, but it has been very useful and profitable to us, abductively identifying investment opportunities hiding in plain sight in public markets. We are harnessing technology in a forward-looking way whilst staying true to the core principles of value investing, a natural evolution given the current disruption to our industry.

Value investing is dead. Long live value investing!

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Napoleon vs. Einstein: Who Would Make a Better Fund Manager?

December 16, 2017 in Best Ideas Conference, Diary

This article is authored by MOI Global instructor Anuj Didwania, fund manager of Redart Capital, a fundamental value-oriented investment firm based in India. Anuj is an instructor at Best Ideas 2018, the fully online conference featuring more than one hundred expert instructors from the MOI Global membership community.

It is often said on Wall Street that traders possibly have the most stressful jobs in the world — next to soldiers on the front line. Clearly it’s hard to find a more stressful situation than being in a war zone everyday — not knowing when the next bullet will make contact with your helmet.

Having been a trader for a bulge-bracket U.S. investment bank, I can surely vouch for the stress of trading markets. And having invested in markets for close to two decades, I have weathered my share of battle scars from the financial war zones. Investing is clearly not for the faint-hearted.

My main argument in favor of Napoleon over Einstein is not linked to physical wounds, but with the immense emotional and intellectual complexity of dealing with constantly evolving environments. Napoleon is famous for saying he would rather have a lucky General than one who was good. And Einstein is famous for saying compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. These two statements clearly show the understanding that each had of how the world worked.

Napoleon on one hand understood that in life and in situations that constantly change, being lucky means a lot more than being good, because luck (also referred to as positive random events) can play a much bigger role in life than we would like to believe. Einstein, on the other hand, looked at the world in a more deterministic way. Growing wealth to him was about compound interest. Just figure out the rate and number of years, and voilà! It’s easy to become rich. Napoleon understood that life is far more complicated and continually changing. Einstein, with his deep study of theoretical physics, saw the world as more ordered — as one that follows clear laws of cause and effect.

Economics and most other social sciences have long suffered from “physics envy”. Even biologists wish that living organisms could be better mapped into some sort of equation, but viruses and humans are just so stubborn!

To make money in markets one needs a clear understanding of the nature of reality as manifested in financial markets where humans, driven by emotions more than intellect, do not allow for easy answers. In my younger days I found the charm of trying to pick a turnaround very exciting — finding that ten-bagger that will make me look smart. Painful experience has taught me that one should focus more on the high-probability, good-return investment rather than the low-probability, great-return investment.

India today stands at a cusp. It has suffered a slowdown for close to 6-7 years. This would be unimaginable in the latter part of the last decade. Our demographics and our low per-capita income almost ensure we will have good economic growth for a few decades. So the question most investors grapple with today with regard to investing in India is, should one stay close to shore and buy a safe steady-growing company at a dizzying valuation, or should one pick a beaten cyclical company that will turn around once the investment cycle picks up and give a multi-bagger return?

For me the answer lies with Napoleon — understand the constantly changing factors at play and realize that history will rhyme, but not repeat itself. At the upcoming Best Ideas 2018 conference, hosted by MOI Global, I will share my thesis on a company I feel has both the DNA of a good company and the backing of supportive industry winds. As an intelligent and hopefully lucky investor, I must try to find the best balance between opportunity and loss, with a clear understanding that hoping compound interest will make me successful is just hope, not a strategy.

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Jeff Stacey’s Best Idea for 2018

December 16, 2017 in Best Ideas Conference, Diary, Ideas

Members, log in below to read Jeff Stacey’s snapshot of his favorite investment idea for 2018. Jeff, founder of Stacey Muirhead Capital Management, will present the in-depth investment case at Best Ideas 2018, the fully online conference featuring more than one hundred expert instructors from the MOI Global membership community.

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Previewing PRGX Global for Best Ideas 2018

December 15, 2017 in Best Ideas Conference, Diary, Equities, Ideas, Letters

This article is authored by MOI Global instructor Ben Terk, portfolio manager at Active Owners Fund. Ben is an instructor at Best Ideas 2018, the fully online conference featuring more than one hundred expert instructors from the MOI Global membership community.

At Active Owners Fund, we look for small cap “buy-out” quality companies that are in transition or open to a transaction, that have broken stocks, but are not broken companies.

We invest significant time and resources on due diligence to understand the industry, competitive set and near term opportunity for significant value creation. By focusing on the small cap sector that is under-covered, under-followed and for some companies, under-valued, we are always able to find opportunities where we can buy influence at a discount versus control at a premium. In the sub-billion-dollar market, there are always a whole host of companies going through different types of fundamental events that will unlock value and better reflect the true earnings power of their respective business models.

We have tracked PRGX Global (PRGX) for over five years and have spent time with previous and current PRGX management. As we all come out of private equity, we are constantly speaking with relationships there and exploring potential take private opportunities across our portfolio. We believed PRGX would make an interesting take private candidate given its cash flow potential, sticky customer base and ability to serve as a platform for further market consolidation

PRGX is the largest provider of recovery audit services to the retail industry in the world. The Company serves 75% of the top 20 global retailers, 32% of Fortune 50 companies and has a 99% customer retention rate. The Company recovers over-payments and under-deductions from a customer’s suppliers through data analytics and audit across millions of customer/supplier interactions. We began tracking the Company over five years ago when the prior CEO began his tenure. At the time, we were intrigued by the Company’s significant long-term customer relationships and its access to massive amounts of purchasing data that we thought could be monetized through incremental services and analytics. In addition, there appeared to be a large opportunity to lower costs by accelerating the offshoring of more of the recovery process to India, which was already underway.

We confirmed the scope of the cost reduction opportunity through numerous discussions with the former CEO and prior employees. Despite these near term opportunities, the former CEO had a more grandiose vision and chose to pursue a new business line focused on the healthcare sector. The Company made a couple of unsuccessful acquisitions and the former CEO was eventually pushed out. When the current CEO joined in late 2013, we began to spend time with him and re-started our diligence. We subsequently initiated a position in February, 2017. There are now two activist investors involved, one of which is on the Board and with whom we have a long term relationship.

Under the leadership of the new CEO, the Company exited the healthcare business and focused on automating and accelerating audit cycle times to differentiate itself in an increasingly commoditized business. As a result, the Company has been able to grow organically by adding new clients and increasing customer retention. The Company has had five consecutive quarters of organic revenue growth. The Company is also beginning to show success in leveraging its six petabytes of customer data to sell incremental services to its existing customers while also forging go-to market alliances with a number of consulting firms. The Company recently completed two small acquisitions to further accelerate its adjacent services offering and develop a software-as-a-service (SaaS) business model.

The combination of the heavy technology investment in the Company’s core platform and the buildout of the adjacent services business has masked the forward earnings power of the Company. If we adjust for these non-recurring items, the Company is trading for less than 7x 2017 EBITDA or approximately 50% less than its peer set. We believe the stock will rerate and liquidity will improve as the cash flow yield improve and the business starts to scale. Additionally a combination of a sticky customer base, renewed growth, a strong balance sheet, under-monetized data assets, and a shareholder-focused board will be attractive to both financial and strategic buyers.

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Investment Opportunities in Europe

December 15, 2017 in The Manual of Ideas

As we conclude another year, I am pleased to share with you the progress we’ve made building MOI Global into a unique membership community of intelligent investors.

The Manual of Ideas started out nearly a decade ago focused on content. As we went out to gather and generate uniquely differentiated content for value-oriented investors, we came to appreciate the tight-knit value investing community that had been developing for many years thanks to a strong nucleus formed by the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting.

We realized this was not only a community of exceptionally gifted and successful investors, but that the vast majority of them were also willing to share with and learn from their peers. We were humbled to have the opportunity to bring the wisdom of investors like Tom Gayner, Howard Marks, Tom Russo, Mohnish Pabrai, Jean-Marie Eveillard, Guy Spier, and Ed Wachenheim to others in the community. We also saw an opportunity to leverage the internet to help broaden the appeal of value investing beyond its traditional U.S. base.

We now call this membership community MOI Global, with The Manual of Ideas constituting one component of the value we seek to bring to members. Other benefits include content shared on the new MOI Global website; curated idea presentations shared via online events such as the Best Ideas conference, Asian Investing Summit, Wide-Moat Investing Summit, and European Investing Summit; as well as offline experiences such as Latticework, The Zurich Project, Ideaweek, and member-run meetups in many cities globally.

All of the above benefits are now available to you as a member of MOI Global (at no incremental membership fee). In the past, our online events (formerly ValueConferences) generated revenue from ticket sales. Now they are not only complimentary to MOI Global members, but they are exclusive to members. The upcoming summit, Best Ideas 2018, is our largest online conference ever, with more than one hundred instructors from the community sharing their best ideas. Shai Dardashti and I have started recording some of the sessions, and we are thoroughly impressed by the quality of the presentations. The recordings will be released on January 11-13. The summit will also feature fourteen live sessions on those days (stay tuned for your access details).

As you probably know, we closed our doors to new members at the end of March 2017. We remain closed as we build up the internal resources needed to delight all of our members. We maintain a waitlist for those interested in membership, and we hope to invite selected high-caliber individuals to join MOI Global in the future. While new members may end up joining at a significantly higher annual membership fee, your rate will remain unchanged in recognition of your loyalty.

We strive for MOI Global to be a lifelong companion to our members, regardless of employment status, the market cycle, or other transient factors. If you are going through a tough period, it’s likely other members are either experiencing a similar phase or have done so at some point in the past. By facilitating the right kinds of introductions and interactions, we strive to support members on their personal growth path. Annual events like The Zurich Project and Ideaweek are near-ideal settings for fostering the kinds of exchanges and experiences that can have an enduring positive impact.

Thank you for allowing us to play a constructive role in your journey as an investor. Thank you also for being a part of the MOI Global journey as we pour our passion and resources into building a special kind of community.

Warm regards,

JOHN MIHALJEVIC, CFA
Chairman, MOI Global

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Five Investing Mistakes to Avoid

December 14, 2017 in Best Ideas 2018 Featured, Best Ideas Conference, Diary

This article is authored by MOI Global instructor Glenn Surowiec, portfolio manager at GDS Investments. Glenn is an instructor at Best Ideas 2018, the fully online conference featuring more than one hundred expert instructors from the MOI Global membership community.

Glenn has written the following article primarily with 401(k) investments in mind. We believe the principles stated apply broadly to investors.

MISTAKE #1: You don’t know what your money is doing.

In other words, you’re investing your money with or through a service that denies you true transparency.

With typical mutual fund investments, for example, investors don’t know what’s happening day-to-day or in real-time. Instead, the fund might send a letter detailing all holdings 30 to 45 days after the end of the quarter. This lack of transparency can have numerous implications. You may not clearly understand how all fees are being assessed and/or charged, or you may not see serious conflicts of interest (where investment advisors steer clients into a small group of funds based on “pay to play” agreements with those companies).

Unfortunately, transparency best practices are lagging, according to a 2017 survey by Northern Trust, whose respondents named transparency as the #1 “very important” consideration for investments both traditional (63%) and alternative (62%).i If you don’t know what’s happening with your investments, how do you know if they can meet your needs?

MISTAKE #2: Your investments aren’t right for you.

Put simply, you must have the ability to customize your account to meet your unique situation. Many, many investments (e.g., mutual funds) don’t account for factors like age or time until retirement. That’s because mutual funds manage a single portfolio that treats every investor the same in terms of time horizon, risk tolerance, etc. Indeed, investment portfolios should be designed with some attention to individual needs rather than institutional practices. They should complement any other assets you have, support the kind of lifestyle you want to live, and otherwise incorporate all of your needs and where you are in your lifecycle.

When you leave an employer, you go overnight from something highly restrictive to something highly flexible. That’s a huge opportunity.

This mistake is an ironic one. When you leave an employer, and you can roll your 401(k) into another investment vehicle, you go overnight from something highly restrictive to something highly flexible. That’s a huge opportunity! Yet many investors choose something just as restrictive, or even let their 401(k) stand. Worse, they choose an investment vehicle that’s set on autopilot, with zero corporate accountability on how publicly traded companies are being allocated. Mutual funds are especially guilty because they own hundreds of companies and generally don’t have the resources to adequately vet every company in the portfolio.

MISTAKE #3: You’re too impatient.

I’d estimate that fewer than 5% of market participants think beyond next quarter, let alone next year. It’s no surprise: the entire system is built around a short-term, action-oriented approach to investing. From the minute you wake up, information flows nonstop across the computer and device screens in front of you. Prices are changing constantly, and you can buy and sell at any time.

Long-term thinking is key to successful investing, however.

In fact, patience is perhaps the single most important variable for success over time. The stocks you own will dip from time to time. Short-term under-performance flows into long-term over-performance, and vice versa; you cannot have one without the other.

In other words, while we all want our investments to do well 100% of the time, it’s more important to do well over a long period of time, and what works well over time doesn’t necessarily work all the time. Short-term dips must and should be endured, as long as the investment has been carefully studied and understood to possess the underlying investment characteristics that distinguish good value from bad.

MISTAKE #4: Your investment strategy isn’t value-driven.

Most investors act as though the market is perfectly efficient with information, instantly and accurately incorporating all information about a company and its market into price. Unfortunately, this unspoken assumption means that most investment vehicles are founded on buy-high, sell-low strategies.

That’s because stock prices discount the future; these ratios tell you more about the past. So, the investor’s job is to make judgments about the future that the market is discounting, while looking for things that are happening behind the scenes that the market hasn’t fully appreciated.

The market’s inefficiency with information can compound on itself. Most passive funds weight the indexes based on size. So, if a company gets bigger over time, the impact they have on the index goes up. If a company gets smaller, they have less of an impact. At its core, this is a momentum-based strategy, which penalizes the investor for past success rather than rewarding you for future success. The reality is that most of your best ideas do not come from companies that have done well from a price perspective.

Remember, there are just two kinds of companies: those that have problems, and those that will have problems. That’s business. No one will ride above everything all the time.

The key is to identify and deeply understand companies that are well-situated from a value perspective. It helps to spends a lot of time talking to management, going to presentations, reading filings, talking to people in the industry, discovering who’s gaining or losing share, etc. Then, once you’ve spotted a business you want to invest in, but you think it’s only worth X while it’s selling at 2X, you wait (see Mistake #3 again). Eventually, if you have enough of those companies that you’re patiently watching, that situation will reverse, and you’ll have an opportunity to pay X to get 2X value. You just need to have self-control. This is the essence of value investing: do the fundamental analysis today, with the expectation that the company can be bought at a discounted price sometime in the future.

MISTAKE #5: Your investments are too diversified.

Diversification has been overmarketed and overhyped. It’s important across asset classes but not within asset classes. Owning more and more equity mutual funds (which is very common) won’t protect you in a bear market (like what happened in 2008). In fact, it’s very easy to trick yourself into believing you’ve diversified when all you’ve done is concentrate.

The Wall Street Journal puts it perfectly: “In fact, regardless of the number of holdings, most traditionally allocated portfolios are saturated with equity risk. Over-diversification can create a false sense of confidence whereby we believe we are well diversified, but in reality, a large number of investments actually share a common risk.”ii

On any given day, the market just doesn’t present dozens and dozens of great investment opportunities, unfortunately. If you want to own 50 positions, the only way to do so is to lower your standards until you’re putting money into lower-value options. Instead, look for 15 to 20 different or uncorrelated positions. Owning such a number allows us to concentrate on our very best ideas without compromising the benefits of diversification.

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