El fenómeno de El Niño y su impacto en la agricultura global

January 29, 2024 in Miscelánea, MOI Global en Español

NOTA DEL EDITOR: Este texto es un extracto de una carta trimestral de Panda Agriculture & Water Fund, FI.

* * *

El fenómeno de “El Niño”, iniciado en septiembre está alterando un clima ya de por sí volátil, afectando el comportamiento de las temperaturas y la pluviometría a nivel global, complicando la obtención de buenas cosechas para el período 2023-2024. Medidas como la prohibición de la exportación de arroz por parte de India o la retirada de Rusia del acuerdo del Mar Negro han añadido aún más presión.

Miembros, inicien sesión abajo para acceder al contenido restringido.

¿No eres miembro?

Gracias por tu interés. Ten en cuenta que MOI Global está cerrado para nuevos miembros en este momento. Si deseas unirte a la lista de espera para miembros hispanos, completa el siguiente formulario:

 

La concentración de inversores en el sector tecnológico y sus posibles consecuencias

January 26, 2024 in Miscelánea, MOI Global en Español

NOTA DEL EDITOR: El siguiente texto escrito por Javier Ruiz, CFA, es un extracto de una carta trimestral de Horos Asset Management.

* * *

Una de las características esenciales para que un sistema adaptativo complejo funcione con normalidad es la heterogeneidad de sus participantes. Por ejemplo, parece ser que un hábitat heterogéneo contribuye a preservar la biodiversidad.1 Lo mismo sucede con el mercado bursátil. Cuantas más visiones diferentes haya sobre las compañías cotizadas o, mejor dicho, cuantas más variadas sean las decisiones de inversión, menos tenderá el mercado a vivir cualquier tipo de exceso. En los casos más extremos, una falta de homogeneidad en el conjunto del mercado puede llevar a la formación de burbujas y, habitualmente, a las posteriores crisis financieras, como sucedió en 2008. Como en su momento explicó Jean-Pierre Landau, antiguo vicegobernador del Banco de Francia y director ejecutivo del Fondo Monetario Internacional y del Banco Mundial, la mayor sofisticación de los mercados financieros hasta ese punto no se tradujo en una mayor heterogeneidad de sus participantes, sino todo lo contrario, lo que acarreó devastadoras consecuencias:

Miembros, inicien sesión abajo para acceder al contenido restringido.

¿No eres miembro?

Gracias por tu interés. Ten en cuenta que MOI Global está cerrado para nuevos miembros en este momento. Si deseas unirte a la lista de espera para miembros hispanos, completa el siguiente formulario:

 

Bestinver sobre Orsted

January 22, 2024 in Ideas de inversión, MOI Global en Español

NOTA DEL EDITOR: La siguiente idea de inversión es obtenida de una carta trimestral de los fondos de Bestinver.

* * *

Las pronunciadas caídas que ha acumulado el sector renovable a lo largo de los últimos años lo han llevado a cotizar a valoraciones deprimidas que no reflejan los fundamentales que hemos explicado. El periodo de baja rentabilidad por el que está pasando la industria ha llevado a las compañías a ser mucho más selectivas con los proyectos que está acometiendo y, en consecuencia, pensamos que su rentabilidad puede estar cerca de un punto de inflexión. En otras palabras, pueden disfrutar de un periodo contrario al de la tormenta perfecta, con una explosión en la demanda de energía renovable, unos proyectos con fundamentales muy sólidos y menores tipos de interés para descontar los flujos que produzcan. Estas perspectivas nos han llevado a reforzar nuestras posiciones en compañías como EDPR o Vestas y, al final del trimestre, a iniciar una posición en Orsted.

Miembros, inicien sesión abajo para acceder al contenido restringido.

¿No eres miembro?

Gracias por tu interés. Ten en cuenta que MOI Global está cerrado para nuevos miembros en este momento. Si deseas unirte a la lista de espera para miembros hispanos, completa el siguiente formulario:

 

LSB: Transformed, Competitively Advantaged Ammonia Producer

January 19, 2024 in Audio, Best Ideas 2024, Best Ideas 2024 Featured, Diary, Discover Great Ideas Podcast, Equities, Featured, Ideas, Member Podcasts, Transcripts

Bob Robotti of Robotti & Company Advisors discussed his investment thesis on LSB Industries (US: LXU) at Best Ideas 2024.

The full session is available exclusively to members of MOI Global.

Members, log in below to access the full session.

Not a member?

Thank you for your interest.  Please note that MOI Global is closed to new members at this time. If you would like to join the waiting list, complete the following form:

About the instructor:

Bob Robotti is the Founder, President and CIO of Robotti & Company Advisors, a registered investment advisor based in New York City.

Guided by the classic tenets of value investing, VALUATION MATTERS. Robotti & Company Advisors uses a proprietary research approach to identify companies which trade for substantial discounts to their future free cash flows, yet are misunderstood, neglected, or just out-of-favor, so discounted by markets. Once identified, Robotti’s investment team focuses on deep primary industry and company research to select investment holdings through the lens of a long-term business owner.

In this capacity, Bob is currently on the boards of AMREP Corporation (NYSE:AXR), Pulse Seismic Data Inc. (TSX: PSD) for which he also serves as Chairman, and Tidewater, Inc. (NYSE:TDW). Bob previously was on the board BMC Building Materials Holding Corporation, now amalgamated into Builders FirstSource, the premier and differentiated distributor of building structural products to homebuilders.

Prior to founding Robotti & Company in 1983, he was the CFO of Gabelli & Company. Bob holds a BS in Accounting from Bucknell University and an MBA from Pace University.

CAB Payments: Bombed-Out Price Creates Asymmetrical Opportunity

January 19, 2024 in Audio, Best Ideas 2024, Best Ideas 2024 Featured, Diary, Discover Great Ideas Podcast, Equities, Ideas, Member Podcasts

Patrick Brennan of Brennan Asset Management presented his investment thesis on CAB Payments (UK: CABP) at Best Ideas 2024.

The full session is available exclusively to members of MOI Global.

Members, log in below to access the full session.

Not a member?

Thank you for your interest.  Please note that MOI Global is closed to new members at this time. If you would like to join the waiting list, complete the following form:

About the instructor:

Patrick Brennan is the founder and portfolio manager of Brennan Asset Management, LLC (BAM), a Registered Investment Advisory firm based in Napa, CA, which utilizes a concentrated value investing strategy. Patrick has given presentations at multiple value investing conferences, including presentations to The New York Society of Security Analysts (NYSSA), The Nebraska Society of Securities Analysts and presentations on various names at the VALUEx Vail Conferences. Patrick co-authored an article on tracking stocks with Lawrence Cunningham for The Financial History Magazine and Patrick was featured in a write-up in The Private Investment Brief. Prior to founding Brennan Asset Management, Patrick managed portfolios and led research efforts at two value investing firms in California: Hutchinson Capital Management and RBO & Co.

Previously, Patrick worked at Mark Boyar & Company, where he led the firm’s research team and helped manage $800 million of assets across individual portfolios, institutional accounts and a mutual fund. Patrick also worked for six years in investment banking and equity research with Deutsche Bank, CIBC World Markets and William Blair & Company. Patrick graduated summa cum laude from the University of Notre Dame with a degree in economics and was inducted into Phi Beta Kappa. Patrick received the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation in 2002 and is a member of the CFA Institute (formerly AIMR). Patrick is originally from Omaha, Nebraska.

Cromwell Property: Real Estate Owner and Asset Manager at Deep Discount

January 19, 2024 in Audio, Best Ideas 2024, Best Ideas 2024 Featured, Diary, Discover Great Ideas Podcast, Equities, Ideas, Member Podcasts

Amit Wadhwaney of Moerus Capital Management presented his investment thesis on Cromwell Property Group (Australia: CMW) at Best Ideas 2024.

Thesis summary:

Cromwell is an Australian property company that owns high-quality office properties in Australia, has investments in real estate-related funds it controls, and manages a range of real estate assets, primarily in Europe. It also provides property asset and fund management for internal and external investors.

A lack of business and geographic focus, combined with an inflated cost structure, has led to a number of years of relatively indifferent financial and stock price performance, resulting in an undervalued stock.

Following multiple attempts, control of the company moved to ARA Asset Management (a large global real estate asset manager), which has since been bought by a larger real estate asset manager. The newly installed board and management are expected to narrow the focus of the business while crystallizing some of the latent value embedded in the shares, likely benefiting shareholders.

The full session is available exclusively to members of MOI Global.

Members, log in below to access the full session.

Not a member?

Thank you for your interest.  Please note that MOI Global is closed to new members at this time. If you would like to join the waiting list, complete the following form:

About the instructor:

Amit Wadhwaney is a Portfolio Manager and Co-Founding Partner at Moerus Capital Management LLC, and the founding manager of the Moerus Worldwide Value Fund. Mr. Wadhwaney has over 30 years of experience researching and analyzing investment opportunities in developed, emerging, and frontier markets worldwide, and has managed global investment portfolios since 1996. Prior to founding Moerus, Mr. Wadhwaney was a Portfolio Manager and Partner at Third Avenue Management LLC. Mr. Wadhwaney founded the international business at Third Avenue and was the founding manager of the Third Avenue Global Value Fund, LP, the Third Avenue Emerging Markets Fund, LP, and the Third Avenue International Value Fund. Earlier in his career, Mr. Wadhwaney was first a securities analyst, and then Director of Research at M.J. Whitman LLC, a New York-based broker-dealer. Prior to joining M.J. Whitman, Mr. Wadhwaney was a paper and forest products analyst at Bunting Warburg, a Canadian brokerage firm. He began his career at Domtar, a Canadian forest products company. Mr. Wadhwaney holds an M.B.A. in Finance from The University of Chicago. He also holds a B.A. with honors and an M.A. in Economics from Concordia University; at Concordia, he was awarded the Sun Life Prize and the Concordia University Fellow in Economics, and he subsequently taught economics classes there. He also holds B.S. degrees in Chemical Engineering and Mathematics from the University of Minnesota.

El impacto de la inflación y los tipos de interés en la economía actual

January 19, 2024 in Miscelánea, MOI Global en Español

NOTA DEL EDITOR: Este texto es un extracto de una carta trimestral de Lift Investment Advisors

* * *

Como podemos observar por las innumerables noticias en prensa, televisión y radio, está siendo un año que quedará en la memoria de todos por la alta inflación, así como por las rápidas y continuadas subidas de tipos de interés.

Los bancos centrales que, a principios de año, transmitían el mensaje de una inflación transitoria, han visto “su gozo en un pozo” y a día de hoy, seguimos observando unos elevados niveles de inflación a medio-largo plazo. Es por ello que, el mensaje de las autoridades monetarias deja entre ver que los tipos de interés se mantendrán elevados en el medio plazo (“Higher for longer”). La pregunta que todos nos hacemos es, ¿logrará esta estrategia bajar la inflación o acelerará una recesión que parece que va a llegar y no termina llegando?

Miembros, inicien sesión abajo para acceder al contenido restringido.

¿No eres miembro?

Gracias por tu interés. Ten en cuenta que MOI Global está cerrado para nuevos miembros en este momento. Si deseas unirte a la lista de espera para miembros hispanos, completa el siguiente formulario:

 

Sartorius Stedim Biotech: Transitory Effects Overshadow Secular Growth

January 18, 2024 in Audio, Best Ideas 2024, Diary, Discover Great Ideas Podcast, Equities, Ideas, Member Podcasts

Frank Fischer of Shareholder Value Management presented his investment thesis on Sartorius Stedim Biotech (France: DIM) at Best Ideas 2024.

The full session is available exclusively to members of MOI Global.

Members, log in below to access the full session.

Not a member?

Thank you for your interest.  Please note that MOI Global is closed to new members at this time. If you would like to join the waiting list, complete the following form:

About the instructor:

Frank Fischer, born in 1964, is the CEO of Shareholder Value Management AG, where he is Chief Investment Officer (CIO). Frank is also a board member of Shareholder Value Beteiligungen AG. Until the end of 2005, Frank was managing director of Standard & Poor’s Fund Services (formerly Micropal GmbH) and was responsible for investment fund information and ratings.

After completing his training as a banker (Bankkaufmann) at the Hessische Landesbank, he studied economics at the Goethe University of Frankfurt where he finished with his degree in business administration (Diplom Kaufman).

Frank is married and has two children. He and his wife Julia are the founders and directors of the non-profit foundation Stiftung Starke Lunge (www.starkelunge.de).

Fleetcor: Fast-Growing, Capital-Light, High-Margin Payments Business

January 18, 2024 in Audio, Best Ideas 2024, Best Ideas 2024 Featured, Diary, Discover Great Ideas Podcast, Equities, Ideas, Member Podcasts

Steve Gorelik of Firebird Management presented his in-depth investment thesis on Fleetcor Technologies (US: FLT) at Best Ideas 2024.

Thesis summary:

Fleetcor is a global payments company helping hundreds of thousands of SMEs manage their payment needs, from fuel and travel expenses to corporate payment automation. Steve thinks of the company as a collection of proprietary payment networks that benefit both customers and suppliers.

Fleetcor makes money by extracting volume discounts from merchants or collecting processing fees on the payments they facilitate. This is a capital-light, high-margin business growing at high-teen rates through a combination of organic growth of around 8-10% and value-added M&A that has generated an estimated 16% free cash flow yield on investments since 2011.

The stock recently traded at a 6% free cash flow yield due to concerns about the impact of the EV transition on their core business, which Steve believes are overblown. Through a combination of organic growth, M&A and share buybacks, Steve expects investment in Fleetcor to generate 20% IRRs over a medium-term holding period.

The full session is available exclusively to members of MOI Global.

Members, log in below to access the full session.

Not a member?

Thank you for your interest.  Please note that MOI Global is closed to new members at this time. If you would like to join the waiting list, complete the following form:

About the instructor:

In addition to being Head of Research at Firebird Management, Steve Gorelik is the Lead Fund Manager of Firebird U.S. Value Fund as well as portfolio manager of Firebird’s Eastern Europe and Russia Funds. He joined Firebird in 2005 from Columbia University Graduate School of Business while completing education from a highly selective Value Investing Program. Prior to business school, Steve was an operational strategy consultant at Deloitte working with companies in various industries including banking, healthcare, and retail. He holds a BS degree from Carnegie Mellon University as well as a CFA (chartered financial analyst) charter and a membership in Beta Gamma Sigma honor society. Steve serves on the number of supervisory boards of listed and private companies in the Baltics. He speaks Russian, English and his native Belarussian.

Piaggio: Family-Controlled, Well-Run Owner of Iconic Two-Wheeler Brands

January 18, 2024 in Audio, Best Ideas 2024, Diary, Discover Great Ideas Podcast, Equities, Ideas, Member Podcasts

Javier Echevarria of Invexcel Patrimonio presented his in-depth investment thesis on Piaggio (Italy: PIA) at Best Ideas 2024.

The full session is available exclusively to members of MOI Global.

Members, log in below to access the full session.

Not a member?

Thank you for your interest.  Please note that MOI Global is closed to new members at this time. If you would like to join the waiting list, complete the following form:

About the instructor:

Javier Echevarria serves as Chief Investment Officer of Invexcel Patrimonio. He has specialized in Equity Investments and Wealth Management since 2007. He worked in Bestinver’s sales team from 2007-2009. He coordinated the Anatha charity project in Cambodia in 2009. He joined Excel Corporación as Markets Analyst in 2009 and Invexcel Patrimonio in 2010. He holds a Degree in Law from the Universidad Complutense de Madrid and a Master’s Degree in Stocks and Financial Markets from Instituto de Estudios Bursátiles.

MOI Global