Aalberts: Joining the Ranks of Europe’s High-Quality Industrial Business

October 14, 2021 in Audio, Diary, Discover Great Ideas Podcast, Equities, Europe, European Investing Summit 2021, European Investing Summit 2021 Featured, Ideas, Member Podcasts, Transcripts

Henrik Andersson of Didner & Gerge presented his investment thesis on Aalberts (Netherlands: AALB) at European Investing Summit 2021.

Thesis summary:

Aalberts is a €5 billion market cap Dutch-based corporation involved in a number of attractive end-markets with a strong environmental focus that the company articulates very well. More than 65% of sales can be traced directly to four SDG objectives, which will steadily increase, not the least because of 100% of capex being directed into these products and services. The company is active towards four end markets: eco-friendly buildings, semicon efficiency, sustainable transportation, and industrial niches.

Henrik believes the company has just begun its journey towards quality-industrial type margins and profitability. Furthermore, this is a company that is not very well-known outside of the midcap-crowd in Europe. Management every opportunity to change that during the next mid-term plan, which Henrik expects to be presented in December 2021.

Aalberts was founded in 1975 by Jan Aalberts, with a base in the steel industry that dominated much of the Benelux industrial scene at the time (think Arcelor and its satellite suppliers). Slowly the company branched out into other areas – piping systems for buildings, for instance – and these efforts were multiplied starting in 2012 when current CEO Wim Pelsma succeeded Mr. Aalberts. The management team acts long-term, shows integrity and honesty in its communications, and has installed a system based on decentralization in its ten operational niches. The company has modeled some of its modus operandi on other successful holdco structures, such as Lifco of Sweden. While a success like that is rare to come by, it is Henrik’s belief that Aalberts has the odds in its favor for strong value creation in the next decade and beyond.

The current business plan was presented in 2018. Its most crucial targets were organic growth of >3%, EBITA margins of >14%, and ROCE of >18% before December 2022. The first two have already been met, whereas ROCE most likely will pass the target in 2022. While these numbers are very good in their own right, Henrik believes the company is primed for more given the leading position of its brands and the buoyant end-markets in, especially, eco-friendly buildings (where they supply products spanning “from source to emitter”) and semiconductors (the main customer is ASML). Henrik’s base case is for organic growth of around 5% and ROCE of 20%, which would push Aalberts up the ladder towards Europe’s high-quality industrial businesses. Along these lines; R&D, pricing power and client relationships are also very much improved.

Aalberts recently traded at ~€50 per share, a P/E of 17-18x. The valuation assumes slightly lower returns of capital than today and growth of ~3%. These are highly beatable numbers, in Henrik’s view. Finally, touching on idea sourcing, Henrik first came across the idea in an article announcing “The World’s Greenest Building”, which gave the award to Aalberts’ headquarters.

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About the instructor:

Henrik Andersson has worked within a framework of investing in quality franchises in a concentrated portfolio setting since the early 2000s. After five years as an assistant fund manager and analyst at Handelsbanken Asset Management, in 2003 he launched a discretionary portfolio named European Quality with 15 holdings, inspired by Peter Cundill’s approach of “never shoot into the broom”. That later branched out to a family of funds named the Selective Funds. In 2011 he joined Didner & Gerge, an employee-owned asset management boutique, to launch a Global Equity Fund together with a colleague. D&G Global is now applying these same principles in trying to identify sustainably great companies with an appealing valuation starting point. Over the years, an increased emphasis has been put on corporate leadership with a clear preference for owner-operated companies with a history of outstanding operations.

Nagarro: Owner-Operated, Growing IT Engineering Firm at Discount

October 14, 2021 in Audio, Diary, Discover Great Ideas Podcast, Equities, Europe, European Investing Summit 2021, European Investing Summit 2021 Featured, Ideas, Member Podcasts, Transcripts

Alejandro Estebaranz of True Value presented his investment thesis on Nagarro (Germany: NA9) at European Investing Summit 2021.

Thesis summary:

Nagarro is a leading IT engineering company, with organic growth of 20+% and growth of ~30% if M&A is included. The company has a low-cost operating model. The market is growing quickly and is large at $400 billion in total revenue per year.

Alejandro believes that Nagarro can become a multi-bagger stock, with a long runway of growth. While management owns 40+% of the equity, the shares recently traded at a discount to peers, including Endava, Globant, and EPAM.

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About the instructor:

Alejandro Estebaranz has served as the CIO True Value fund (ISIN: ES0180792006) since its inception. True Value, based in Spain, is a long-only equity fund founded in 2014. It focuses on underfollowed small- and mid-cap public companies, seeking good businesses with good management teams. He holds a degree in mechanical engineering and a degree in industrial engineering.

The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Cegedim: Awful Historical Track Record, But Future Looks Brighter

October 14, 2021 in Audio, Equities, Europe, European Investing Summit 2021, Ideas

Jeremie Couix of HC Capital Advisors presented his investment thesis on Cegedim (France: CGM) at European Investing Summit 2021.

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Jeremie Couix is a co-founder and managing director of HC Capital Advisors based in Germany. Prior to co-founding HC Capital, he worked at Discover Capital as an investment analyst and later as co-portfolio advisor of the fund Squad Growth. Previously, he worked at FORUM Family Office, a value-oriented investment manager based in Munich. Jeremie graduated from EM Lyon Business School in France with an MSc in Management.

The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Neste: Renewable Diesel Player, With Reinvestment Opportunities

October 14, 2021 in Audio, Diary, Equities, Europe, European Investing Summit 2021, Ideas

Antonio Garufi of Decalia Asset Management presented his investment thesis on Neste (Finland: NESTE) at European Investing Summit 2021.

Thesis summary:

Neste is a leader in the renewable diesel business. The company has a dominant market position in a fast-growing market. Renewable diesel is refined from food waste and waste cooking oil and reduces emissions by 80%.

More than seven years ago the company started transitioning from an oil-driven business to a renewables-focused one, with a forward-looking attitude. Today, the underlying market is growing at a CAGR of more than 25%.

The hyper-growth opportunity (~70% CAGR) comes from the sustainable aviation business (SAF). Airplanes will be required to fill their tanks with a fixed and growing percentage of SAF in the next few years.

The company recently sold its oil assets to Chevron and is set to improve its capital allocation policy by increasing buybacks, due to a clean balance sheet. Antonio estimates that the high ROIC of the renewables business (18-20% adjusted) and strong cash generation will allow management to optimize the capital structure by buying back around 12%-15% of outstanding shares.

Antonio sees a compelling growth runway for this market leader, as well as a catalyst following the sale of oil assets. Neste has become a “pure play” in a green business and may enjoy a scarcity premium.

While the recent valuation may seem expensive (2022E P/E of 26x and 2022E EV/EBITDA of 16x), Antonio believes a five-year estimated exit value justifies a high-teens annual investment return over the period.

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About the instructor:

Antonio Garufi is the Fund Manager of the Decalia Circular Economy Fund, based in Geneva since 2017. Previously, he worked eight years with Astor Investment as PM and analyst of a multi-thematic hedge fund. Before that, he spent three years at JPMorgan in London. He holds a master degree in Corporate Finance from Bocconi University, a PhD in Economics, and executive degrees from Columbia and Harvard Business School.

The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

British American Tobacco: Growing Leader at Double-Digit FCF Yield

October 14, 2021 in Audio, Diary, Discover Great Ideas Podcast, Equities, Europe, European Investing Summit 2021, European Investing Summit 2021 Featured, Ideas, Member Podcasts, Transcripts

Marta Escribano of Salmon Mundi Capital presented her investment thesis on British American Tobacco (UK: BATS) at European Investing Summit 2021.

Thesis summary:

British American Tobacco is the second-largest global tobacco industry manufacturer, with ~22% market share. The company has a powerful cigarette business, owning six of the thirteen most-sold brands worldwide. BAT leads the tobacco industry in pricing power (+9% in 2019, +7% in 2020), which should allow the company to keep growing profits in the years to come.

Slightly more than one-half of the company’s EBIT comes from the US, an attractive and profitable market, as raising prices in the country is quite easy due to the high affordability by US tobacco consumers.

In Marta’s view, BAT is a defensive stock that offers strong cash flow visibility resulting from the company’s solid market positioning and also due to high entry barriers as well as the oligopolistic structure of the tobacco industry. The recent market valuation of the shares is highly attractive. In addition, the stock offers a ~7.7% dividend yield, one of the highest yields in the FTSE 100 index.

Read a related article by Marta on contrarian investment opportunities.

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About the instructor:

Marta Escribano is partner and principal analyst of Salmón Mundi. She has been working in financial markets for 14 years. She became principal analyst in 2013. Formerly she worked in the Treasury Department of Banco Popular at the FX and fixed income desk. Before that, she had joined the Treasury of Inversis Bank and the international equity desk of Interdin as equity sales trader advising mostly Swiss and Italian clients. Since the beginning of her professional career she has been passionate about financial markets and the Austrian School of Economics. She holds a Bachelor´s Degree in Law from the Universidad Pontificia Comillas (ICADE) and a Master’s Degree in Financial Markets and Alternative Investments (MFIA).

The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Westwing: Founder-Led, Well-Run Online Retailer of Home Furnishings

October 14, 2021 in Audio, Diary, Discover Great Ideas Podcast, Equities, Europe, European Investing Summit 2021, European Investing Summit 2021 Featured, Ideas, Member Podcasts

Brad Hathaway of Far View Capital Management presented his investment thesis on Westwing (Germany: WEW) at European Investing Summit 2021.

Thesis summary:

Westwing is a European direct-to-consumer home furnishings retailer. WEW currently has a small share of a very large TAM that is just beginning the shift from offline to online.

Due to a content-led marketing strategy, WEW enjoys large organic traffic share, significant weekly customer engagement, high revenue retention, and attractive cohort economics, which should allow the company to grow rapidly at good margins. The company is led by its co-founders who are focused on long-term value creation.

The stock is mispriced as a result of investor concerns about near-term comps while the company laps strong COVID performance as well as current global supply chain issues. However, Brad believes these near-term concerns provide the opportunity to purchase a business with the potential for significant long-term value creation. The downside should be protected by a large net cash position, sticky customer base, and material near-term cash flow.

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About the instructor:

Brad Hathaway is the Managing Partner of Far View Capital Management, an investment firm based in Aspen, Colorado. Before founding Far View Capital Management in 2011, Mr. Hathaway worked for four years at J. Goldman & Company, a New York City-based hedge fund. At J. Goldman, Mr. Hathaway worked as an analyst and a portfolio manager on the firm’s value team. His role there included sourcing and analyzing investment opportunities and managing a portfolio of global securities from multiple asset classes with a focus on US publicly-traded equities. Prior to J. Goldman, Mr. Hathaway worked for three years as an analyst at Tocqueville Asset Management where he discovered and researched global long and short equity investments for the International Value mutual fund and the Global Partners hedge fund. Mr. Hathaway graduated with a B.A. in Political Science from Yale University.

The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Iberpapel: Competitively Advantaged, Vertically Integrated Paper Producer

October 14, 2021 in Audio, Diary, Discover Great Ideas Podcast, Equities, Europe, European Investing Summit 2021, European Investing Summit 2021 Featured, Ideas, Member Podcasts

Santiago Domingo Cebrian of Magallanes Value Investors presented his investment thesis on Iberpapel (Spain: IBG) at European Investing Summit 2021.

Thesis summary:

Iberpapel is a Spanish paper producer with a capacity of ~250 kilotonnes per year. The company’s unique producing asset is Papelera Guipuzcoana de Zicuñaga, which was set up in Hernani in 1935 and has since then engaged in paper manufacturing and marketing, primarily focused on printing and writing paper.

The business model is based on a production process fused with industrial flexibility, productivity, cost leadership, sustainability, and respect for the environment. Iberpapel is vertically integrated, creating a large competitive advantage.

Iberpapel has a net cash position and an important growth project outside the printing and writing paper segment. The company has created shareholder value at a rate of 7+% annually. Based on estimated normalized EBITDA of EUR 37 million, Iberpapel trades at an EV to EBITDA multiple of roughly 4x.

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About the instructor:

Santiago Domingo is an investment analyst at Magallanes Value Investors. Magallanes is an independent equity-only asset management, following value investment philosophy and controlled by its founders. Magallanes’ aim is to preserve and increase its clients’ capital by overperforming the market in the long term. Prior to Magallanes, Santiago worked as an equity portfolio manager for Solventis Asset Management, as an analyst for a start-up called OralSurgeryTube and in the Endesa´s financial department. Santiago holds a Bachelor´s degree in Finance and Accounting from University of Zaragoza and a Master´s degree in Institutions and Financial Markets from CUNEF.

The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Georgia Capital: Well-Managed Investment Holding at Discount

October 14, 2021 in Audio, Diary, Discover Great Ideas Podcast, Equities, Europe, European Investing Summit 2021, European Investing Summit 2021 Featured, Ideas, Member Podcasts

Gokul Raj Ponnuraj of Bavaria Industries Group presented his investment thesis on Georgia Capital (UK: CGEO) at European Investing Summit 2021.

Thesis summary:

Georgia Capital is an investment holding firm that was spun out of Bank of Georgia in 2018. (In this case, Georgia refers to the country rather than the US state.)

The key parameters Gokul Raj generally looks to judge the attractiveness of an investment firm or a holding conglomerate are as follows, in order of importance:

1) Do we trust the ability and the character of the management team to compound shareholder value? Do they have an investment edge to deliver strong returns?

2) Do they invest in an asset class that has attractive opportunities and are difficult to access for us directly?

3) Does the firm have high quality assets that would compound in value by continuously reinvesting cash flows at attractive rates that we would anyways love to own?

4) Are the underlying assets reasonably valued? Is there a significant discount to NAV? Is the cost base and tax leakage at the holding level reasonable?

5) Is the management team rightly incentivized to unlock shareholder value? Are there clear catalysts for valuation re-rating?

As detailed below, Georgia Capital ticks all the above boxes positively and hence may provide an attractive investment opportunity.

1) The CEO and team have a 20-year track record of delivering 18%+ compounded shareholder returns. They have the best deal flow in Georgia and a clear edge to attract top class management teams because of access to permanent capital and dominance in the local market (the pre-spin group used to control 15% of the country’s GDP).

2) Georgia is a high growth country with limited long term capital availability. It is an attractive investment pool for growth investments because of a low per capita base and a progressive macro regime. Less than 20% of Georgia Capital’s portfolio is publicly listed and the remaining portfolio is made up of difficult to access private assets.

3) The portfolio of the firm is well diversified with strong defensive businesses in financial services, healthcare, energy, education etc which have a combined ROE profile of 20% and provide long runway for growth. Most importantly, Georgia has a 0% corporate tax regime if the capital gets reinvested in the country and has a 0% capital gains tax. This allows the management team to allocate capital wisely across their businesses with zero tax leakage.

4) The discount to NAV is 50% even when you mark the portfolio conservatively on look through earnings or cash flows (levered cash flow yield on their non-banking operating business is above 25%). The net management cost is less than 0.7% of AUM. The firm aspires to grow NAV by 10X over the next 10 years.

5) The CEO takes no salary as cash and is paid in shares that vest over 6 years. His incentives are rightly aligned with us, and the management team is clear about the need to reduce the NAV discount. They want to sell one of their medium sized portfolio firms to buy back stock aggressively at the current levels.

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About the instructor:

Gokulraj Ponnuraj is a value investor with a focus on small and mid-cap compounders and spin-off’s with a bias towards emerging markets. He has been investing in the Indian markets for more than ten years and in global markets for the last four years. Gokul manages the public equities portfolio at Bavaria Industries Group. The firm uses its balance sheet assets (permanent capital) to invest in opportunities with an attractive risk-reward trade off. Gokul holds a Master in Finance degree from London Business School and a CFA charterholder.

The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Econocom: Turnaround With Double-Digit FCF Yield and Insider Buying

October 13, 2021 in Audio, Diary, Discover Great Ideas Podcast, Equities, Europe, European Investing Summit 2021, European Investing Summit 2021 Featured, Ideas, Member Podcasts

Louis D’Arvieu of Amiral Gestion presented his investment thesis on Econocom (Belgium: ECONB) at European Investing Summit 2021.

Thesis summary:

Econocom has a €600 million market cap and trades at 6x EV/EBIT and an FCF yield of 14%, which is growing. The market pays little attention because the company is complex with three different, albeit synergetic, businesses, and because of issues the company faced in 2017, which took three years to fix. Both the founder and the company have been buying shares frantically, on top of a large dividend. This year, for instance, the company has already returned 14+% FCF to shareholders.

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About the instructor:

Louis d’Arvieu joined Amiral Gestion in 2005 and serves as a fund manager for the Sextant funds. Run by Julien Lepage, Amiral is an independent asset management firm based in Paris with a fundamental investing approach. Its goal is to deliver high & sustained performance over the long run and to support businesses in a responsible manner.

The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Hexagon Composites: Niche Leader in Low-Carbon Energy Transition

October 13, 2021 in Audio, Diary, Discover Great Ideas Podcast, Equities, Europe, European Investing Summit 2021, European Investing Summit 2021 Featured, Ideas, Member Podcasts

Ole Søeberg of Nordic Investment Partners presented his investment thesis on Hexagon Composites (Norway: HEX) at European Investing Summit 2021.

Thesis summary:

Hexagon Composites is an investment in the low-carbon energy transition. The company is a world leader in lightweight composite cylinders for storage and transportation of gases under pressure. The global installed base of pressure cylinders is 1.1 billion units and mainly made in steel, while only 19 million are lightweight composite cylinders.

Hexagon plays several strings in the roadmap for a lower carbon footprint. They get a predictable cash flow from low pressure tanks for grill, leisure boat, and home use; they grew a substantial business from 2019 to the late 2020s from large tanks for RNG and LNG tanks for trucks, busses, storage, and trains; and after 2024 a significant growth engine kicks in as high-pressure composite tanks for hydrogen cars, trucks, busses, and vessels start to take off.

The NOK 3.5 billion revenue stream is expected to reach NOK 8-10 billion five years from now. An EBITDA margin of 15% supports a price objective of NOK 50-60 over this period, suggesting an estimated return of ~14% annually.

Short-term risks include a component shortage, while longer-term risks include competition from the cooling of hydrogen instead of the use of high pressure methods.

Read a related article by Ole on investing in the transition to green energy.

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The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.
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