Hexagon Composites: Niche Leader in Low-Carbon Energy Transition

October 13, 2021 in Audio, Diary, Discover Great Ideas Podcast, Equities, Europe, European Investing Summit 2021, European Investing Summit 2021 Featured, Ideas, Member Podcasts

Ole Søeberg of Nordic Investment Partners presented his investment thesis on Hexagon Composites (Norway: HEX) at European Investing Summit 2021.

Thesis summary:

Hexagon Composites is an investment in the low-carbon energy transition. The company is a world leader in lightweight composite cylinders for storage and transportation of gases under pressure. The global installed base of pressure cylinders is 1.1 billion units and mainly made in steel, while only 19 million are lightweight composite cylinders.

Hexagon plays several strings in the roadmap for a lower carbon footprint. They get a predictable cash flow from low pressure tanks for grill, leisure boat, and home use; they grew a substantial business from 2019 to the late 2020s from large tanks for RNG and LNG tanks for trucks, busses, storage, and trains; and after 2024 a significant growth engine kicks in as high-pressure composite tanks for hydrogen cars, trucks, busses, and vessels start to take off.

The NOK 3.5 billion revenue stream is expected to reach NOK 8-10 billion five years from now. An EBITDA margin of 15% supports a price objective of NOK 50-60 over this period, suggesting an estimated return of ~14% annually.

Short-term risks include a component shortage, while longer-term risks include competition from the cooling of hydrogen instead of the use of high pressure methods.

Read a related article by Ole on investing in the transition to green energy.

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About the instructor:

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The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Giglio.com: Italy-Based, Much Smaller “Farfetch”, But Better and Cheaper

October 12, 2021 in Audio, Diary, Discover Great Ideas Podcast, Equities, Europe, European Investing Summit 2021, European Investing Summit 2021 Featured, Ideas, Member Podcasts, Transcripts

Massimo Fuggetta of Bayes Investments presented his investment thesis on Giglio.com (Italy: G.COM) at European Investing Summit 2021.

Thesis summary:

Giglio.com is a global marketplace for luxury products for multi-brand boutiques. It also offers e-concessions for luxury brands.

The business model is similar to UK-based, US-quoted Farfetch, but has several distinguishing features.

A recent IPO on the Milan Stock Exchange, the company is much smaller and growing faster than Farfetch, while trading at a large discount to the larger peer.

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About the instructor:

Massimo Fuggetta is the founder, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer of Bayes Investments.

Massimo started his investment management career in 1988 at JP Morgan Investment Management in London, where he rose to become Head of the Global Balanced Group, with responsibility for international balanced portfolios. In 1999 he left JPMIM to become Chief Investment Officer, Director General and then CEO at Sanpaolo IMI Asset Management in Milan. He left the company in 2001 to start Horatius, an investment advisory company incorporated in 2004, which in 2007 became an asset management company. He left Horatius in 2012 to go back to London, where in 2014 he founded Bayes Investments.

Massimo holds a Doctorate (DPhil, 1991) and Master’s Degree (MPhil, 1987) in Economics from the University of Oxford. He graduated in Economics at LUISS, Rome in 1984. He taught Behavioural Finance in the Master in Economics course at Bocconi University in Milan in 2000-2002 and in the same period served in the Editorial Board of the Financial Analysts Journal.

In 2012 Massimo started the Bayes blog, which has acquired popularity in the Value Investing community.

Read Massimo’s recent article on reinventing and reinvigorating value investing.

S2E5: Duration, Terminal Value, FOMO | Investing Texts to Re-Read Often

October 12, 2021 in Audio, Podcast, This Week in Intelligent Investing

It’s a pleasure to share with you Season 2 Episode 5 of This Week in Intelligent Investing, co-hosted by

  • Phil Ordway of Anabatic Investment Partners in Chicago, Illinois;
  • Elliot Turner of RGA Investment Advisors in Stamford, Connecticut; and
  • John Mihaljevic of MOI Global in Zurich, Switzerland.

Enjoy the conversation!

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In this episode, co-hosts Elliot Turner, Phil Ordway, and John Mihaljevic discuss

  • duration, terminal value, and the “fear of mission out”; and
  • investing articles and texts that belong in every investor’s “re-read” folder.

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This Week in Intelligent Investing is available on Amazon Podcasts, Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Pandora, Podbean, Spotify, Stitcher, TuneIn, and YouTube.

If you missed any past episodes, you can listen to them here.

About the Podcast Co-Hosts

Philip Ordway is Managing Principal and Portfolio Manager of Anabatic Fund, L.P. Previously, Philip was a partner at Chicago Fundamental Investment Partners (CFIP). At CFIP, which he joined in 2007, Philip was responsible for investments across the capital structure in various industries. Prior to joining CFIP, Philip was an analyst in structured corporate finance with Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. from 2002 to 2005. Philip earned his B.S. in Education & Social Policy and Economics from Northwestern University in 2002 and his M.B.A. from the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University in 2007, where he now serves as an Adjunct Professor in the Finance Department.

Elliot Turner is a co-founder and Managing Partner, CIO at RGA Investment Advisors, LLC. RGA Investment Advisors runs a long-term, low turnover, growth at a reasonable price investment strategy seeking out global opportunities. Elliot focuses on discovering and analyzing long-term, high quality investment opportunities and strategic portfolio management. Prior to joining RGA, Elliot managed portfolios at at AustinWeston Asset Management LLC, Chimera Securities and T3 Capital. Elliot holds the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation as well as a Juris Doctor from Brooklyn Law School.. He also holds a Bachelor of Arts degree from Emory University where he double majored in Political Science and Philosophy.

John Mihaljevic leads MOI Global and serves as managing editor of The Manual of Ideas. He managed a private partnership, Mihaljevic Partners LP, from 2005-2016. John is a winner of the Value Investors Club’s prize for best investment idea. He is a trained capital allocator, having studied under Yale University Chief Investment Officer David Swensen and served as Research Assistant to Nobel Laureate James Tobin. John holds a BA in Economics, summa cum laude, from Yale and is a CFA charterholder.

The content of this podcast is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this podcast. The podcast participants and their affiliates may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated on this podcast. [dkpdf-remove]
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Six Reasons Why Boutique Investment Managers Outperform

October 11, 2021 in European Investing Summit, Letters

This article is authored by MOI Global instructor Pieter Hundersmarck, global portfolio manager at Flagship Asset Management, based in Cape Town.

The term “investment boutique” is used to describe a relatively wide range of asset management firms. However, the general consensus is that investment boutiques are smaller, independently-operated firms where management own at least 50 percent of the equity, the investment services and products are deeply specialized and personalized, and where the AUM is less than $2 billion.

A study conducted by US-based Affiliated Managers Group (AMG) in 2018 found that, “Boutique active investment managers have outperformed both non-boutique peers and indices over the last 20 years.”

The charts below illustrate this. Figure 1 shows the average annual outperformance of boutiques vs non-boutiques while Figure 3 shows the average rolling returns of boutiques versus indices, both over twenty years (1998-2018).

The study also mapped out a number of “core characteristics” that position boutiques to add value for clients. I discuss them below in relation to how we at Flagship have structured our boutique.

Alignment of interests

Direct equity ownership ensures that key principals have a vested interest in the long-term success of a boutique.

Many of the most talented investment professionals in the world are drawn to the boutique structure, where the incentive system allows them to own the results of their investment performance.

It is also often the case that these investment professionals have a significant portion of their personal net worth invested in the portfolios they manage, creating a long-term mindset and commitment to stated goals.

At Flagship, 65% of the business is owned by fund managers in addition to their remuneration being tightly aligned to fund performance. We think like owners and act like owners. We also apply this line of thought to the companies in which we choose to invest, assessing them from a holistic perspective as opposed to that of a minority shareholder. This creates a skin-in-the-game mentality that adds a deeper dimension to investment decisions and improves investment outcomes.

Multi-generational management

The presence of a multi-generational management team, including a succession plan, is another core foundation of a boutique. This ensures that key principals will continue to remain motivated and highly involved in business development.

Many boutique asset management firms owe their unique philosophy to their founding members. What begins as a successful investment strategy for the founders of the firm develops into a time-tested, original and robust investment approach that is lived and breathed by the fund managers.

While some boutiques may still be owned and operated by the founders of the firm, many enjoy multi-generational investment managers who honour the founder’s original legacy. This results in both a strong investment and company culture, creating one of the uniquely successful propositions of boutiques.

Culture starts with what people do and how they do it. In asset management, what people do may not differ dramatically, but high-performing investment firms distinguish themselves in how they do it. This cumulative effect of what is done and how it is done ultimately determines a firm’s performance.

Flagship Asset Management is a privately owned, independent, global specialist boutique asset manager, founded in 2001 by Simon Hudson and Winston Floquet. Our global portfolio managers have an average of over fifteen years investment experience on average. This ensures not only a long-term mindset, but an enduring investment culture which results in consistent execution of our investment strategies over time. It is for this reason that Flagship is one of South Africa’s most awarded boutique asset managers.

Entrepreneurial culture with partnership orientation

Key partners control the daily operations of a boutique and are actively involved in business planning and building an enduring franchise.

Talented investors are more likely to be drawn to boutiques that offer an entrepreneurial culture and allow them to have a direct impact on the future success of their business.

Hugely beneficial to clients is the level of accessibility and interaction that is afforded by the fund managers of a boutique investment firm. Due to the smaller staff compliment, boutiques seldom invest in large sales teams, preferring to explain their unique investment philosophy and approach themselves. As owners of the business with vested interests, client interaction takes place on a commensurate level.

At Flagship, we have been growing, preserving and protecting our clients’ investments since 2001. Our clients are our partners, and we spend time communicating our investment decisions to them. As co-investors in all Flagship funds, we treat our clients as we would like to be treated – professionally, timeously and candidly.

Investment-centric

A boutique has an investment-centric organizational alignment, typically geared to a distinct investment philosophy with a highly focused investment process.

Investment-centric considerations have primacy at a boutique, and are more likely to lead to optimal risk-adjusted returns. Boutiques typically have flat organizational structures with fewer management layers and significantly wider spans of management control. Back-office functions are often outsourced, thereby keeping the routine chores of running a business to a minimum, in order to maintain a primary focus on investment management. The benefits of a simple structure are increased organizational agility and reduced micromanagement.

Founders of boutique asset managers have little desire to build empires. They, and the fund managers they attract, are driven by a passion for investing. Boutique investment managers are nimbler than their larger counterparts and able to quickly take advantage of opportunities due to the lack of bureaucracy.

At Flagship Asset Management we benefit from a simple, horizontal organisational structure. Our size and office plan create an inclusive culture where every team member carries full accountability for their role. Each person’s contribution is heard and valued.

As a small team, we use our time wisely. All non-investment functions including bookkeeping, accounting, trading, fund pricing and administration are outsourced. Portfolio managers spend 90% of their time making the investment and asset allocation decisions necessary to run global multi-asset and equity-only funds.

Commitment to building an enduring franchise

Key principals are committed to the long-term growth and success of a boutique, often signalled by their willingness to sign multi-year employment agreements.

A stable, long-term environment is ideal for generating investment success, and a group of principals bound together by long-term equity is well positioned to deliver this success.

It is inevitable that larger investment firms experience greater staff turnover and require long term incentives to retain key personnel. Boutiques tend to think of themselves as a family, where the quality of the work environment and the ability to directly impact results is of greater importance. This leads to high levels of collaboration, collective effort and ownership. Management tenure, which is critical for the success of actively managed funds, together with low staff turnover, result in a strong investment management culture which leads to consistency over time.

At Flagship, our global portfolio managers have an average of over fifteen years investment experience on average and there has been no investment management or operational staff turnover in the last ten years. We believe this leads to an enduring investment culture, resulting in the consistent execution of our investment strategies.

Focused, active asset management

Focused active managers outperformed generalist managers as well as their benchmarks after fees. Even in the most efficient markets, focused active managers added more on the upside and lost less on the downside.

In focused asset management firms, everyone in the firm is devoted to ensuring that their single strategy is successful. There are no conflicting priorities, no new product initiatives, no resource allocation discussions and no new launch roadshows. The firms’ clients know that every single person on the organisation chart is solely devoted to the strategy they are invested in – and nothing else.

At Flagship, our investment philosophy is long-term focused, fundamental, and exploits a limited universe of quality companies that exhibit attractive growth and quality characteristics. Our process is rigorous, and its application is intrinsically linked to the concentrated manner in which we build portfolios of maximum 25 stocks. Our process focuses on downside protection, leading to better outcomes at market dislocations such as the GFC in 2009 and most recently during the Global Pandemic of 2020.

Adhering to core characteristics enables boutiques to add value to their clients

Flagship’s unique proposition is built on three pillars:

  • Specialization: Success in any endeavour comes from focus. We are focused on a small number of strategies where we have the skill and experience to add value.
  • Global experience: Our global portfolio management team is highly experienced across global asset classes.
  • Independence and alignment: We are owner-managed, and pride ourselves on being able to apply an independent, global perspective to our portfolios.

As we enter the uncertain post-pandemic world, we believe these pillars allow us to offer something unique an valuable to our clients.

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Contrarian Investment Opportunities for Uncertain Times

October 10, 2021 in Commentary, European Investing Summit, Letters, Macro

This article is authored by MOI Global instructor Marta Escribano, principal analyst and partner at Salmon Mundi Capital, based in Madrid.

In our view, the continued monetary policy actions executed by central banks have created bubbles in many asset classes all over the world. The market capitalization of global equities has surpassed the global GDP (a level that was only reached in 2000 and 2007). We also believe that in many countries both real estate and bond markets, are severely overvalued.

We are very concerned about the Chinese massive credit bubble. The country’s real estate sector and related industries represent around 30% of GDP. Chinese people exposure to this bubble is huge, as most of them own a property and the real estate accounts for a large share of Chinese households’ wealth.

Despite the uncertain times we are living through, we have been able to find very attractive investment opportunities.

Our largest position is in gold miners. We consider gold as a unique asset for uncertain times. Historically gold has widely outperformed, both equities and bonds, in inflationary periods and it is lowly correlated with traditional assets. Gold tends to move in tandem with real yields. Ten-year real yields are currently negative and we expect them to become more negative in the future. Gold miners offer very strong fundamentals. In recent years they have taken advantage of higher gold prices while maintaining cost under control. As a result, their operating margins reached record levels in 2020. Besides they have healthy balance sheets most of them with net cash or very low levels of debt.

We also find good investment opportunities in the tobacco sector; it is oligopolistic and offers a cheap valuation. Despite cigarette volumes are decreasing, the industry increased its revenue 25% in the last decade. The main reason is tobacco company’s huge pricing power. Largest tobacco firms are increasing prices at an annual rate of around 6%. The number of smokers has been stable since 1990 and, according to OMS, it is expected to remain similar in the coming years. Big tobacco companies have a huge opportunity in less risky products such a heated tobacco or e-vapours. In these categories volumes and consumers are increasing exponentially.

The fertilizer sector also offers an attractive opportunity. Agricultural commodity prices are at their highest levels in more than a decade and energy prices have risen sharply. Historically, food prices and energy prices have been highly correlated with fertilizers prices. China is importing huge amounts of food (in 2020 imports of cereals and grains rose 171% YoY). Furthermore, global grain inventories remain at low levels (world stock to use excluding China is at one of the lowest levels in 20 years).

In Russia we are finding leading companies, with unique assets at very attractive valuations. Russian companies are very well positioned to take advantage of raising oil and gas prices. The country has low public and private debt levels, and its reserves more than cover its total external debt. Its Central Banker has a very orthodox approach, and she has been one of the first implementing tapering worldwide.

All in all, we think we are in an uncertain scenario with bubbles in many asset classes, but we are being able to find good opportunities in leading companies at very attractive valuations.

* Salmon Mundi is a Spanish Sicav which trades in the Alternative Exchange in Madrid. Our investment philosophy is based on two pillars: Value Investing and the Austrian School of Economics. We invest all over the world mainly in equities, both long and short. We are interested in assets, sectors, or countries out of favour, where little capital has been invested during long periods of time. We search for world leading companies with unique assets.

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EIS 2021 Idea Preview: Aalberts — Humanly, Environmentally, Financially

October 10, 2021 in European Investing Summit, Ideas, Letters

This article is authored by MOI Global instructor Henrik Andersson, partner and fund manager at Didner & Gerge, based in Stockholm.

Aalberts is a €5 billion market cap Dutch-based corporation involved in a number of attractive end-markets with a strong environmental focus that the company articulates very well. More than 65% of sales can be traced directly to four sustainable development goals, which will steadily increase not the least because of 100% of capex being directed into these products and services.

The company is active towards four end markets

  • Eco-friendly buildings
  • Semicon efficiency
  • Sustainable transportation
  • Industrial niches

We believe the company has just begun its journey towards quality-industrial type margins and profitability. Furthermore, this is a company that is not that well-known outside of the midcap-crowd in Europe, but have every opportunity to change that during the next mid-term plan which we expect to be presented at the company’s CMD in December, 2021.

Aalberts was founded in 1975 by Jan Aalberts, with a base in the steel industry that dominated a lot of the Benelux industrial scene at the time. Think Arcelor and its satellite suppliers. Slowly the company branched out into other areas – piping systems for buildings for instance – and these efforts were multiplied starting in 2012 when the current CEO Wim Pelsma succeeded Mr. Aalberts.

We think the entire management team acts very long-term, shows integrity and honesty in its communications and has installed a system based on decentralization in its ten operational niches. The company has definitely modeled some of its modus operandi on other successful “HoldCo”-structures like Lifco of Sweden. While a success like that is rare to come by, it is our belief that Aalberts have the odds in its favor for very good value creation in the next decade and beyond.

Aalberts Product Portfolio: From Source to Emitter

The current business plan was presented at a capital markets day in 2018. Its most crucial targets were organic growth of >3%, EBITA margins of >14%, and ROCE of >18% before December 2022. The first two have already been met, whereas ROCE most likely will pass the target in 2022. While these numbers are very good in their own right, we believe the company is primed for more given the leading position of its brands and the buoyant end-markets in especially eco-friendly buildings (where they supply products spanning “from source to emitter”, see picture) and semiconductors (the main client is ASML).

Our base case is for organic growth of around 5% and ROCE of 20%, which certainly would push Aalberts up the ladder towards Europe’s high-quality industrial businesses. Along these lines; R&D, pricing power and client relationships are also very much improved.

Saving the best for last – this being a conference for value investing! – Aalberts at around €50 is trading at a P/E of 17-18x. Cut differently, the valuation assumes slightly lower returns of capital than today and growth at around 3 percent. Very beatable numbers, in our opinion!

Finally, where did we source this idea? From an article announcing “The World’s Greenest Building”, which gave the award to Aalbert’s head-quarters! The company puts its money where its mouth is.

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Sebastien Lemonnier Highlights His Timeless Investment Principles

October 7, 2021 in Equities, European Investing Summit, Letters, Skills

This article is authored by MOI Global instructor Sebastien Lemonnier, fund manager at INOCAP Gestion, based in Paris.

I look forward to participating in European Investing Summit for the fourth consecutive time, as it is always a privilege to learn from all the other participants.

It might be interesting in this short piece to step back from fundamental analysis and investment idea presentations and share with you the main investment principles I have gathered over time since starting my career eighteen years ago.

  • Humility and rigorous work are your best allies.
  • Do not just gather information but look for the right information.
  • Be curious. Naive questions often reveal the most interesting answers.
  • You cannot buy investor experience.
  • Focus on less to make sure you do it well.
  • Meet as many companies as you can; there are always things to be learned.
  • Simple investment cases are often the successful ones.
  • Track investor darlings over the cycle; be patient to buy them well.
  • Favor a common-sense approach.
  • When buying a stock, keep in mind your three key decision drivers.
  • From the outset, know why and potentially when you might sell a stock.
  • Fundamental conviction is key, but timing should not be neglected.
  • Spend time to understand those who think contrary to you.
  • Never blame anybody for your mistakes but learn from them.
  • While market environments differ, participants’ actions follow patterns.
  • Reject complacency.
  • Fall in love only with your wife and never with a company or CEO.

With these principles in mind, I look forward to sharing and discussing with you one of my high-conviction ideas at European Investing Summit 2021.

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Disciplined Growth Investing in the Transition to Green Energy

October 5, 2021 in Commentary, Energy, European Investing Summit, GARP, Letters

This article is authored by MOI Global instructor Ole Soeberg, founder of Nordic Investment Partners, based in Copenhagen.

Having lived the ups and downs of global financial markets since the early 1980s, the last couple of years have certainly been interesting and have provided new perspectives, to say the least. Lower US corporate taxes in 2018, followed by easier monetary conditions in 2019 boosted valuations to new highs in late 2019. Then the game stopped in early 2020, caused by the global pandemic, and then the bull run marched on in 2020 and 2021, driven by surplus liquidity and strong earnings. Only investors on steroids would have imagined the 2020-21 run in March 2020. No matter the overall market mood, there are underlying trends that do not stop with lockdowns or high valuations and are to some extent immune to economic cycles.

Early on in my career I found growth companies more interesting as they have more potential than cyclical and traditional businesses, albeit the latter two can also have good managers and business models that create solid returns over time. Computers, software, and new innovative drugs were obvious hunting grounds for investment ideas back then. The big challenge, however, was to learn how to hold onto an investment and let it do the value creation work. As example, I bought Microsoft after the crash in October 1987 as it suddenly was less highly valued. After a decent return, it was sold in 1988. In hindsight, the sell was a very poor investment decision and boiled down to an observable profit and a young spirit ready for the next hunt. No other investors told me the value of patience at that time, but I wish I had learned it early on. Unfortunately, patience is not learned in one instance, so additional “too early sells” had to teach me discipline.

The Tiger Crisis in 1997 opened up a honey pot of Asian growth companies, such as Samsung. The company is still part of my investment portfolio but has been sized down several times. The financial crisis in 2008 again opened the honey pot to get good growth companies at low valuations, which helped fuel performance for the next decade.

700 of world’s 4,000 largest companies are valued at more than 10x sales

Fast forward from 2008 and to 2021, when more than 700 companies are priced above $5 billion and valued at more than 10x sales (source: Refinitiv Global). There is an easy illustration of the challenge posed by those kind of valuations: Ferrari, the high-end car brand, trades at 10x sales and is a well-known business. Based on consensus EPS for 2021-24 (as of September 2021) and using the general market earnings yield of 5% for discounting, Ferrari must grow earnings at least 12% annually over the 2025-41 period to support the recent stock price. A simplistic view is that ~75% of Ferrari’s sales come from cars and spare parts, while ~25% is from engines, commercial, and other. Let’s assume car sales is the key driver for Ferrari; then the company may need to sell 100,000 cars in 2041, as compared to the 10,000 current unit run-rate. That may well happen as global affluence increases and more individuals can afford a Ferrari, but during the last six years, with a roaring bull market, Ferrari’s car sales have grown at a rate of 6% annually.

The list of 700 companies contains many firms that are completely unknown to most investors, and to justify a valuation of 50x sales one must be pretty optimistic on the longer-term prospects for the business if it is to generate value for investors. I have my doubts that most of the 700 companies will be successful.

Opportunities for valuation-minded investors in renewable energy?

With many companies aggressively valued, what is the curious investor to do? I spend lots of time identifying growth pockets for the next 10-20 years and digging into many companies to find the few that might — or might not — be the next 20-, 50- or 100-baggers.

CO2 reduction is high on the agenda, as is making the earth’s resource consumption more sustainable for the benefit of future generations. To change the fossil fuel economy into a renewable energy economy requires billions, if not trillions, of dollars in investment. The journey has barely just begun, with the trend gaining momentum in the last decade.

Denmark, my home country, was an early bird in wind power renewables, supported by government subsidies. It never broke the government bank to do so and, along the way, the windmill industry developed into a world leader in the field, with Vestas Wind Systems (Denmark: VWS) as the global leader. As a stockbroker and participant in the public listing of Vestas in 1998, I recall that the arguments against the investment case were many. One argument was that the major industrial power companies, such as General Electric, Mitsubishi, and Siemens, would let Vestas and competitor NEG Micon kickstart the market, and then the big industrials would take it from there. The fact is that Vestas today has much better profitability and a stronger market position than competitors General Electric Renewable Energy and Siemens Gamesa.

Founders are often the best stewards for sustainable and solid value creation. In the Vestas case that was not part of it as the company was founded in 1898 and the founder was long gone. However, the family continued to develop the business. It expanded into wind turbines in 1945 and started focusing solely on wind turbines after 1989. Today, Vestas is an institutionalized public company, with the founder ethos mostly hidden from outside view.

Previewing my idea for European Investing Summit 2021

The company I’ll highlight is a Norwegian industrials business that has grown from almost nothing in 1995 to a NOK 3.5 billion business today. The founding family is a major shareholder. The journey over the next 10-15 years has only begun after a major reorganization to serve customers’ CO2 reduction needs in the best possible way.

The investment qualifies for long-term growth of at least 10%, with good profitability and returns on capital employed in excess of 15%. The observable valuation in 2021 is not a bargain, but once we look out to 2024-25, the valuation becomes a bargain. As a result, it might be a good time to get to know the business and perhaps build a long-term position, allowing the intrinsic value creation to materialize over time.

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S2E4 Special: How the World‘s Greatest Investors Win, with William Green

October 5, 2021 in Audio, Podcast, This Week in Intelligent Investing

It’s a pleasure to share with you Season 2 Episode 4 of This Week in Intelligent Investing, featuring Phil Ordway of Anabatic Fund in conversation with William Green, author of Richer, Wiser, Happier: How the World’s Greatest Investors Win in Markets and Life.

Enjoy the conversation!

download audio recording

In this special episode, Phil Ordway speaks with William Green about the book, “Richer, Wiser, Happier: How the World’s Greatest Investors Win in Markets and Life”.

Follow Up

Would you like to get in touch?

Follow This Week in Intelligent Investing on Twitter.

Engage on Twitter with Elliot, Phil, or John.

Connect on LinkedIn with Elliot, Phil, or John.

This Week in Intelligent Investing is available on Amazon Podcasts, Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Pandora, Podbean, Spotify, Stitcher, TuneIn, and YouTube.

If you missed any past episodes, you can listen to them here.

About the Participants:

Philip Ordway is Managing Principal and Portfolio Manager of Anabatic Fund, L.P. Previously, Philip was a partner at Chicago Fundamental Investment Partners (CFIP). At CFIP, which he joined in 2007, Philip was responsible for investments across the capital structure in various industries. Prior to joining CFIP, Philip was an analyst in structured corporate finance with Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. from 2002 to 2005. Philip earned his B.S. in Education & Social Policy and Economics from Northwestern University in 2002 and his M.B.A. from the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University in 2007, where he now serves as an Adjunct Professor in the Finance Department.

William Green is the author of Richer, Wiser, Happier: How the World’s Greatest Investors Win in Markets and Life (Scribner/Simon & Schuster, April 2021). Over the last quarter of a century, he has interviewed many of the world’s best investors, exploring in depth the question of what qualities and insights enable them to achieve enduring success. He’s written extensively about investing for many publications and has been interviewed about the greatest investors for magazines, newspapers, podcasts, radio, and television. He has also given many talks about the lessons we can learn from the most successful investors, not only about how to invest but about how to improve our thinking. Green has written for many leading publications in the US and Europe, including The New Yorker, Time, Fortune, Forbes, Barron’s, Fast Company, Money, Worth, Bloomberg Markets, The Los Angeles Times, The Boston Globe Magazine, The New York Observer, The (London) Spectator, The (London) Independent Magazine, and The Economist. He has reported in places as diverse as China, India, Japan, the Philippines, Bangladesh, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, the US, Mexico, England, France, Monaco, Poland, Italy, and Russia. He has interviewed presidents and prime ministers, inventors, criminals, prize-winning authors, the CEOs of some of the world’s largest companies, and countless billionaires. While living in London, Green edited the European, Middle Eastern, and African editions of Time. Before that, he lived in Hong Kong, where he edited the Asian edition of Time during a period in which it won many awards. Green has collaborated on several books as a ghostwriter, co-author, or editor. One of them became a #1 New York Times and #1 Wall Street Journal bestseller in 2017. He also worked closely with a renowned hedge fund manager, Guy Spier, helping him to write his much-praised 2014 memoir, The Education of a Value Investor: My Transformative Quest for Wealth, Wisdom, and Enlightenment. Green also wrote and edited The Great Minds of Investing, which features short profiles of 33 renowned investors, along with stunning portraits created by Michael O’Brien, one of America’s preeminent photographers. Born and raised in London, Green was educated at Eton College, studied English literature at Oxford University, and received a Master’s degree from Columbia University’s Graduate School of Journalism. He lives in New York with his wife, Lauren, and their children, Henry and Madeleine.

The content of this podcast is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this podcast. The podcast participants and their affiliates may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated on this podcast. [dkpdf-remove]

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Common Sense Is Uncommon: Areas of Concern in a Speculative Market

October 4, 2021 in European Investing Summit, Letters

This article is authored by MOI Global instructor Alirio Sendrea, head of research at Invexcel Patrimonio, based in Madrid.

The following text has been translated from Spanish and may contain errors.

The period since the onset of the COVID crisis has probably been the most important for us in terms of learning. Right after last summer we began a humble exercise of introspection and analysis, asking ourselves what we should have done better.

The main learning has been a realization of the need to improve our risk management framework — not only to see our wealth grow, but also to protect it. Accordingly, we are including new monitoring tools, formal procedures, and updating our investment checklist in order to embrace the valuable lessons we have learned.

Furthermore, we recognize that as stock pickers we risk to miss the forest for the trees. We may have overlooked new facts and trends, not allocating sufficient time to understand their consequences to the development of businesses, appropriate valuations, and market sentiment. Now it is one of our key goals to be more open-minded.

Hence, besides our traditional bottom-up approach, we want to take a step back to assess what has been going on from a top-down perspective and to assess the “temperature” of the market.

From a macro standpoint, markets have been flooded by unprecedented monetary stimulus in response to the pandemic. While central bank assets have skyrocketed, the world continues to enjoy the cheapest money in 5,000 years, according to Bank of America Global Research.

Meanwhile, many large countries have also deployed massive fiscal stimulus in response to the COVID crisis, with amounts in excess of those witnessed during the 2008 financial crisis (measured as a percentage of GDP). The comparable number is roughly an order of magnitude larger than in 2008 in countries like Germany, Japan, France, the UK, and Brazil; and President Biden will not be a laggard. All this fiscal spending comes on top of the already large monetary stimulus during the Great Financial Crisis, which we were still digesting prior to the COVID crisis.

Market sentiment has been affected by all of the above. By 2019 material distortions existed in certain asset prices. The situation has only gotten more extreme. We outline a few areas of concern.

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